Community | August 11, 2008 | 65 comments

UK scientist: 'Prepare for extinction'

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange

Image
GrandKnow2

We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke, "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction.

The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world's geography would be transformed much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to create the Channel, the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.

Watson's call was supported by the government's former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, who warned that "if we get to a four-degree rise it is quite possible that we would begin to see a runaway increase". This is a remarkable understatement. The climate system is already experiencing significant feedbacks, notably the summer melting of the Arctic sea ice. The more the ice melts, the more sunshine is absorbed by the sea, and the more the Arctic warms. And as the Arctic warms, the release of billions of tonnes of methane – a greenhouse gas 70 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years – captured under melting permafrost is already under way.
  1. groups:
    Community,   Green,   Earth and Science
  2. tags:
    News,  Not News,  Green,  Earth and Science,  8 more
  3. credits:
    Oliver Tickell The Guardian
  4.     
    |

65 comments // UK scientist: 'Prepare for extinction'

  • ieatwithaknife
  • AxeRFJ
  • purplefox
    • 0
      purplefox  

    • People do need to pay more attention to this. Unfortunately, a lot of the statistics are so big now that it seems hopeless and people are (at least inwardly) preferring not to think about it too much. It's a point though.. what can we do at this point? Is there any solid advice?

    • 3 years ago
  • rockstarmillionaire
  • himi
  • himi
  • rockstarmillionaire
  • Wetdog
  • jjmaster
    • 0
      jjmaster  

    • We live and we learn, and we correct our mistakes along the way! Right? Technologies lead us in many directions... We are again at a crossroad... We are trying to become more earth conscious... We can overcome our problems, if we acknowledge them! Sometimes I am discouraged, overwhelmed, in raged, and overcome with depression over our situation, but there is a passion for life in me that continues to engage in activism and edification. We must keep educating one another... Getting the information to the pubic is essential for change.

    • 3 years ago
  • thetrimsmith
    • 0
      thetrimsmith  

    • We are going to handle this crisis the way we created it, wrong. Every living thing on earth is at peril because of humans and an industrial revolution.

    • 3 years ago
  • linebacker51
    • 0
      linebacker51  

    • when will people get their heads out of their asses and realize that, even if most of the worlds top scientists are wrong, what whould it hurt to be cautious and take action!!!

    • 3 years ago
  • argyle_kitten
    • 0
      argyle_kitten  
    • linebacker51:

      Even if global warming didn't exist, there would still be plenty of reasons to clean things up--such as to free ourselves from dependence on non-renewable energy, and just for making the world a nicer, less lung-clogging place to live in.

    • 3 years ago
  • LinsB
    • 0
      LinsB  

    • "There are no problems, only solutions."
      -John Lennon

      Let's wake up, not give up. No offshore drilling, Florida!

    • 3 years ago
  • 1percent
  • BoximusPrime
  • petarro
    • 0
      petarro  

    • Sounds dramatic, but it's the perfect excuse to stop the usage of Oil and move to Solar, wind and Hydro.

      We can do it.

    • 3 years ago
  • JanforGore
    • 0
      JanforGore  

    • What negatavist rhetoric. While the scenario for what the world would look like at 1-6 degrees more is not good, we still have time to turn a great part of it around. This is just admitting that we should give up... well, sorry, I'm not about to do that. I happen to treasure this planet and want the world to be a better place. While climate change is certainly a challenge and while I do believe we have reached a tipping point in glacier melt in some places, that does not mean all is lost. But it seems negativity is all some people want to hear in order to have an excuse to just throw their hands up and not have to do anything. I bet oil and coal companies just love all that negativity.

    • 3 years ago
  • mransom
  • JanforGore
  • rockstarmillionaire
    • 0
      rockstarmillionaire  

    • this is such bullshit. the planet hasn't warmed in over 10 years. this is just natural melting that happens from time to time. either way, there isn't anything we can do about global warming, which is caused by the sun.

    • 3 years ago
  • Vierotchka
    • 0
      Vierotchka  
    • rockstarmillionaire:

      I'm afraid you're completely wrong. The five hottest years since 1890 occurred in the past ten years. I myself have lived long enough to have observed how over the past thirty to forty years, winters have become progressively shorter and milder, springs have progressively come earlier and earlier, and summers have become progressively longer and hotter. I live in a region where, until about twenty five or so years ago, winters brought ample snow. Since then, we have had less and less snow and nowadays, there is maybe one or two snowfalls per winter, only an inch or two of snow where there used to be a foot or two, and snow that doesn't last more than three days.

    • 3 years ago
  • rockstarmillionaire
  • Vierotchka
    • 0
      Vierotchka  
    • rockstarmillionaire:

      And I am referring to changes observed over several decades. Sweden, where I also have lived, used to have winters that reached -30°c every year. Of late, they have barely reached -5°c, and both in Sweden and Finland they have had temperatures of +5°c at a time when normally they were -30°c until ten or so years ago. I have observed this gradual warming not only where I live, but in several countries to which I have regularly traveled.

    • 3 years ago
  • linebacker51
    • 0
      linebacker51  
    • rockstarmillionaire:

      so even if it is natural why cant we try and reduce our impact anyway, because if the scientists are wrong and it is all natural and we reduce impact all we wind up is cleaner skies. BUT if your wrong and we do nothing then were FUCKED!!!!!

    • 3 years ago
  • argyle_kitten
  • rockstarmillionaire
  • rockstarmillionaire
    • 0
      rockstarmillionaire  
    • rockstarmillionaire:

      linebacker,

      i'm not against reducing our impact or being more green or reducing pollution. I'm just against thinking we can clean up a problem that doesn't have to do with the solutions we're putting on it and stressing everyone out over nothing they can do and putting everyone into a state of emergency and fear unnecessarily which is what it is.

    • 3 years ago
  • rockstarmillionaire
    • 0
      rockstarmillionaire  
    • rockstarmillionaire:

      "The sun is not getting hotter. It's changes in the atmosphere due to pollution that are causing the earth to heat up faster."

      Yes, when there is global warming it is because of the sun getting hotter. The changes in the atmosphere due to pollution aren't big enough to cause global warming.

      the earth has only warmed .07 degrees in the last 9 years and not unusual, and lies well within the range of natural variation.

      You're forgetting the basic foundation of being able to test whether global warming is happening. the theory says that if global warming is caused by greenhouse gases (which c02 from man is less than 1% of) then the troposphere (which greenhouses are in the middle of 10-12 kil up from surface) should warm more
      rapidly than the surface. John Christy, whom won a
      NASA medal of Scientific Achievement in 1991, an award
      from the American Meteorology Society for advancing
      the ability to monitor climate, was a lead authoer on
      the UN's Climate Change (IPCC) said there are two ways
      to take temperature. One from satellite and the other
      weather balloon. A weather balloon has proven this
      theory isn't happening.

    • 3 years ago
  • fattyJ
  • powerup
  • Enjoy_Cannabis
    • 0
      Enjoy_Cannabis  

    • If governments were trully concerned everyones house and business would be solar or wind powered and for free and fast nevermind outlawing travel as we know it today. One months worth of the military budget for the country would cover it I bet.

    • 3 years ago
  • heathurrrrr
    • 0
      heathurrrrr  

    • how about everyone strips away everything they have watched, what they know about the government, and just use common sense. if you are living in a world that currently has SO MANY things pointing to this "theory", and SCIENTISTS who have studied their entire lives to do what they do, saying "hey this actually makes sense".... i mean you can use all the excuses about the government you want but some people are just reading the facts. not just the ones on this site.. and making sure they're relevant. aka not taking the lazy way out (:

    • 3 years ago
  • kanyons
    • 0
      kanyons  

    • I'm not saying global warming is not real. I'm just saying, if this were the case there would be no solution to stop it. The government would have stopped this story from airing if it was true (human extinction). If your interested in what I'm talking about Google the Esoteric Agenda.
      I don't believe everything the movie says but you should watch it.

    • 3 years ago
  • Xomeron
  • Slumberjack
    • 0
      Slumberjack  
    • Xomeron:

      An increase in 4˚C (average temp) over a period of a couple hundred year is something that life and ecosystems of this planet have never experienced. The adaptation mechanisms of life on this planet was not designed for this type of abrupt difference in climate.

    • 3 years ago
  • argyle_kitten
  • ichigo113
  • himi
  • ultravphunter
  • stephenthomson
    • 0
      stephenthomson  

    • YOU GUYS SUCK. yes you, the ones who throw up your arms and say "oh well, nothing we can do about it" or who simply dont grasp how big this is.

      seriously, grow some balls and do something worthwhile with your useless lives.

    • 3 years ago
  • NoGodsNoMasters
    • 0
      NoGodsNoMasters  

    • Eh, I'm not really worried about it. Infact, if this is going to happen regardless I might as well enjoy myself by not worring about the environment period.

    • 3 years ago
  • Kynmore
    • 0
      Kynmore  

    • it's Aug. and it's already 68.4 F where some of my family live in New York state... I envy their 20 F degrees cooler weather.

      What I see isn't evidence of Global Warming, all I see is Weather Confusion. Weather is the most unpredictable force of nature, I'm sorry if I don't believe that computers can predict what's going to happen with the accuracy needed to deduce that global warming is actually happening and not just a theory.

      If meteorologists can be wrong for a 24-48 hour period, how can they even try to look forward months and years?

    • 3 years ago
  • stephenthomson
    • 0
      stephenthomson  
    • Kynmore:

      some helpful information I found when reading the IPCC's AR4 Synthesis Report (available on the IPCC website):

      Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N20) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.

      Atmospheric concentrations of C02 (379 ppm) and CH4 (1774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years….

      The observed increase in CH4 concentration is predominately due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. … the increase in N20 concentration is primarily due to agriculture.

    • 3 years ago
  • Slumberjack
  • crob80227
    • 0
      crob80227  
    • Kynmore:

      Can a doctor tell you within 24hrs when (exactly) the first cancer cells will form in a heavy smokers lungs?

      No?

      Does that mean smoking is perfectly harmless and healthy?

      Nope.

      Can any human being tell the exact day, hour and second the billions of tons of inudstrial emissions will reach a tipping point and start irreversibly changing long term weather patterns?

      Does that mean that 100 billion metric tons of cancer causing industrial pollution is perfectly harmless both to humans and the environment in general?

      Nope.

    • 3 years ago
  • mransom
    • 0
      mransom  
    • Kynmore:

      The new term is "global climate change," rather than "global warming." The earth is gradually heating, but each area of the earth is affected differently by it.

    • 3 years ago
  • kanyons
    • 0
      kanyons  

    • With no estimated time in the article, all I can think is it's just a bunch of scare tactics. If this info were true the UK government would not have let anyone know. They create a problem then release a solution to control the people.

    • 3 years ago
  • Gephoria
  • zealotohio
  • Wetdog
  • damnneargenius
  • stephenthomson
  • shhhlistennn
  • calmdowncalmdown91
  • atarikg
  • SonicSubculture
  • zealotohio
  • toshiba
  • good_stuff
    • 0
      good_stuff  

    • I think that is due to the fact that the author cites a time period (over 20 yrs). Presumably, the CO2 would be absorbed or changed into different molecule sooner than the methane. Thereby making the methane more greenhouse gaseous as time increases in comparison to the CO2.

      Remember, 90% of facts are made up on the spot.

    • 3 years ago
  • stephenthomson
  • stephenthomson
    • 0
      stephenthomson  

    • We've cracked the egg. We better either do some serious crack-filling, or we're fucked. positive feedback loops are scary shit.

      meanwhile, 70 million tons of GHGs yesterday.
      70 million today.
      70 million more tomorrow.

    • 3 years ago
  • huntre
  • elegua
more from Community:
from the community

top videos