How to read the numbers on Election Day | Salon News
source: http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/11/04/polls/index.html
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Nov. 4, 2008 | Barring some cataclysmic change in the race's final hours, Tuesday's outcome no longer seems in doubt. What still hangs in the balance is the size and scope of the victory. Do the Democrats bust through, with Obama winning by more than 5 or 6 points -- even double digits, 350 or more electoral votes, and a congressional majority enhanced by more than seven new Senate and 25 new House seats? Or does Obama, as often happened in the primaries, fail to close part of the sale and win by a less impressive margin, say 3 or 4 points, with a later than expected Election Night sweat and less modest increase in his party's congressional ranks?
Here are some things to watch for as the numbers start to come in on Tuesday night.
1) One voter turnout model defines the electorate largely by past voting history, another allows for more young and minority voters than in the past. The latter model clearly helps Obama. Even turnout figures for Eastern states, however, won't be complete till after midnight. The best piece of early evidence among the night's numbers as to which turnout model is more accurate may be Virginia. If Virginia is called for Obama immediately after the polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, based on both exit polls and key precinct results, then a near double-digit national margin may be possible, fueled by African-American and younger/suburban votes. That would undoubtedly bode well for Obama's chances in North Carolina, Florida and the growing Western states such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
Here are some things to watch for as the numbers start to come in on Tuesday night.
1) One voter turnout model defines the electorate largely by past voting history, another allows for more young and minority voters than in the past. The latter model clearly helps Obama. Even turnout figures for Eastern states, however, won't be complete till after midnight. The best piece of early evidence among the night's numbers as to which turnout model is more accurate may be Virginia. If Virginia is called for Obama immediately after the polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, based on both exit polls and key precinct results, then a near double-digit national margin may be possible, fueled by African-American and younger/suburban votes. That would undoubtedly bode well for Obama's chances in North Carolina, Florida and the growing Western states such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
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