Community | April 22, 2009 | 11 comments

Global output predicted to fall 3.8% in 2009

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8011907.stm

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InformedTexan
The global economy is set to decline by 1.3% in 2009, in the first global recession since World War II, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.

In January, the IMF had predicted world output would increase by 0.5% in 2009.

It now projects that the UK will see its economy shrink by 4.1% in 2009, and by a further 0.4% in 2010(!)

But other major economies are predicted to shrink even more, with Germany declining by 5.6%, Japan by 6.2%, and Italy by 4.4% in 2009.

The prospects for the advanced economies are not much brighter in 2010, with an overall forecast of zero growth.

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard on the bleak economic outlook

The IMF says this represents "by far the deepest post-World War II recession" with an actual decline in output in countries making up 75% of the world economy.

Currently, output is falling by an "unprecedented" 7.5% annual rate in the rich countries in the last quarter of 2008, and the IMF expects the same rate of decline in the first quarter of this year.

Only a recovery in developing and emerging market countries will propel the world economy back into positive growth in 2010, albeit at a relatively weak level of 1.9%.

The prospects for world trade are even gloomier, with the IMF now forecasting world trade volumes to decline by 11% in 2009, and barely grow at all in 2010.
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11 comments // Global output predicted to fall 3.8% in 2009

  • AveryMoore
  • cztheday
    • 0
      cztheday  

    • When you say that we may want to reconsider how much power we give them, the question occurs to me whether you mean the IMF, economists generally, or the journalist-priests. But I am afraid your answer might simply be "yes."

      Mathematical turtles?

    • 3 years ago
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  

    • cztheday!

      Surely you understand that ill-informed people keep referring to Economics as a "Science." Albeit, categorically DISMAL.

      Actual Scientists, on hearing this, tend to crumble with laughter. Or just sputter with outrage.

      With your background in physics I'm surprised that there aren't more fireworks in your responses.

      But as to the IMF's "estimates"?

      Here we return to what really has become a Cult Of Divination. As did the ancient Chinese, now the backs of mathematical turtles are carefully examined to determine what hasn't yet happened, and might not happen.

      Couched in the a careful fog of "we think" "it may" and "possibly" a painfully qualified and hedged data interpretation of vague speculative announcements is offered.

      At this point the press strikes. All this quivering uncertainty is stripped away to reveal what isn't there, "IMF SAYS WE'RE SCREWED!"

      All and sundry believers then can pretend that the will of god has been heard by the appropriate priesthood.

      If we have learned anything in recent years it may be that like those fellows down south (who stood with sharp obsidian blades atop pyramids) whose mathematical prowess told them which new god would dominate each new day - it may be time to reconsider how much power we surrender to their beliefs.

    • 3 years ago
  • cztheday
    • 0
      cztheday  

    • Um...so the IMF forecast way back in...three months ago was horribly and hopelessly wrong. Which means that this LATEST forecast's credibility is...? (this would be funnier if I wasn't certain that THIS forecast will prove to be equally optimistic)

    • 3 years ago
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  

    • We sure are lucky that Bush's two front war, his tax giveaways, offshoring of industry, manic downsizing, depopulation of the workforce, ignorance of the vital importance of infrastructure, and other remarkably bi-polar economic policies, didn't leave us looking at a bleak future.

      Oh. Wait...

      Damn! I was looking at France! That socialist menace!

      Be not afraid patriots: we will always have Freedom Fries.

      All they'll have is European women...

      How is that fair?

      Pls advise...

    • 3 years ago
  • cztheday
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  
    • AveryMoore:

      That any man, of any continental persuasion, is impressed by European women is gratifying.

      Such semi-deities have ranged from a Maria Callas, to Bardot, Maureen O'Hara, Sophia Loren, Greta Garbo, Ingrid Bergman, Dietrich, etc, it almost makes me want to abandon all standards of propriety and watch figure skating, seriously. Rather than drool and gawk..

      Do Europeans deserve such company and a more stable economy?

      A painful thought.

    • 3 years ago
  • jh64487
    • 0
      jh64487  

    • it's just balancing itself out. too many people were living above their means, overproducing, over spending. than china joined the fray.

      it's necessary and healthy. maybe next time we will plan more intelligently for the future and we can avoid this.

      long live socialism!

    • 3 years ago
  • 1percent
  • Scarabus
  • cztheday
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