'09 could see seven hurricanes

With the official start of Hurricane Season today, forecasters are calling for a "normal" year of 14 named storms that could threaten the eastern United States.

Of those, the National Weather Service predicts seven could become hurricanes, including up to three major hurricanes of Category Three or higher.

North Carolina has been spared a really bad storm for a decade, while states along the Gulf of Mexico have borne the brunt of nature's fury -- Hurricane Katrina being the most destructive and deadly example.

Ryan Ellis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Raleigh, said winds, ocean currents and other factors have conspired to push the storms along a more southerly track in recent years.

But it is not clear whether that trend will carry over into 2009. Early measurements are indicative of warm ocean temperatures that could yield powerful storms.

''Last year was a relatively inactive year overall," Ellis said. "Something they're looking at that could indicate this year will be more active is increased rainfall over western Africa. That's an indicator of storms being able to form there later in the year. Basically that gives another birth region for hurricanes. They can form in the Gulf, in the Caribbean or out of Africa, where they move into the Atlantic and then all the way across."

It has been 10 years since Hurricane Floyd flooded inland North Carolina counties all the way to Interstate 95, and 13 years since Fran cut a path of destruction into Raleigh.

Five years ago, Francis and Ivan caused devastating landslides and floods that killed a dozen people in the western part of the state.

Authorities say they have not been lulled into complacency by the state's recent good fortune.

Last week, the state's Division of Emergency Management coordinated with other agencies to hold a drill simulating how they would respond if a major storm hit the state. Though a large portion of the N.C. National Guard is currently deployed in Iraq, officials say they still have adequate resources available if a major storm bears down on the state.

''I've had a lot of friends deploy recently, and it's true there's a lot of manpower over there," said Mike Sprayberry, the state's deputy director of emergency management. "But we do a gap analysis and plan so that if we are down some equipment, we coordinate with other states to provide that equipment. Primarily, we're pretty good to go on the personnel side of things and we're good on our helicopters and aircraft and things like that.

''But all bets are off if we get a huge Category Four or Category Five. Like any other state, we would have to ask for some assistance."