Community | July 18, 2009 | 10 comments

Iran Able To Test Nuke In 6 Months

source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31959578/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

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VIENNA - Iran is blocking U.N. nuclear agency attempts to upgrade monitoring of its atomic program while advancing those activities to the stage that the country would have the means to test a weapon within six months, diplomats told The Associated Press Friday.

The diplomats emphasized that there were no indications of plans for such a nuclear test, saying it was highly unlikely Iran would risk heightened confrontation with the West — and chances of Israeli attack — by embarking on such a course.

But they said that even as Iran expands uranium enrichment, which can create fissile nuclear material, it is resisting International Atomic Energy Agency attempts to increase surveillance of its enrichment site meant to keep pace with the plant's increased size and complexity.

For Iran to amass enough fissile material to conduct an underground test similar to North Korea's 2006 nuclear explosion, it would likely have to kick out monitors of the IAEA — the U.N. nuclear agency — from its one known uranium enrichment site at Natanz. Technicians then could reconfigure the centrifuges now churning out nuclear-fuel grade enriched uranium to highly enriched, weapons-grade material.

Iran is unlikely, however, to want to do that. Such a move would immediately set off international alarm bells and could bridge rifts on how strongly to react — Russia and China, which have resisted Western calls to increase pressure on Iran over its nuclear defiance, would likely endorse more sweeping U.N sanctions and other penalties.

Secret site?
With the U.N. nuclear agency strictly limited in its nuclear monitoring of Iran, the existence of a hidden enrichment site that could supply the weapons-grade uranium needed for a nuclear weapons test is also possible.

IAEA chief Mohamed Elbaradei has repeatedly warned that his agency cannot guarantee that Iran is not hiding nuclear activities. Iranian nuclear expert David Albright on Friday put the chances that such a secret site exists at "50-50."

But even a hidden enrichment plant meant to upgrade material to weapons level would likely have to be fed with low-enriched uranium from the Natanz site. So transporting that material would not escape the agency's detection.

In any case, international action — and possible Israeli attack — would be triggered at the latest by a nuclear test explosion.

Iran is still considered years away from developing a reliable nuclear warhead delivery system. So tipping its hand with a nuclear test, should it want to own such weapons, would make little sense.

"We are talking here not of intent but capability," said one of two western diplomats accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Like his colleague from another country, this diplomat — who has access to intelligence on Iran's nuclear program — demanded anonymity in exchange for discussions of the highly confidential issue.
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10 comments // Iran Able To Test Nuke In 6 Months

  • remanns
    • 0
      remanns  

    • Israel is not going to sit still and let Iran
      "provide persuasive evidence that it had, say, 10 multi-megaton nuclear devices -- half hidden in widely dispersed and hardened underground locations in-country and the other half hidden in five secret locations around the rest of the planet".
      There will be war before that point is reached in my estimation.

    • 2 years ago
  • artemis6
  • bailey78
  • Viciouspike
    • 0
      Viciouspike  
    • bailey78:

      I swear people's stupidity only went but so far... The reason that "we" didn't "nuke there ass'es" is because of civilians, ethics, and the world view... Believe it or not America is not the most loved country around... and something like that would only just make matters worse... So you might want to actually think before you start spewing things out of your mouth...

    • 2 years ago
  • artemis6
  • cztheday
    • 0
      cztheday  

    • Postscript:

      As I was posting the response above, I was flipping through some materials I recently received and came across these numbers from the "Union of Concerned Scientists:"

      Estimated # of Nuclear Weapons by Country:

      Russia 14,000
      U.S. 10,550
      France 300
      China 241
      Britain 200
      Israel 80
      Pakistan 60
      India 50

      I just thought these numbers painted an interesting picuture of the current dispersement of nuclear arms in the world. A couple of additional observations that I think are important: 1) With the exception of the so-called "tactical" nukes that are intended for battlefield use, nobody builds nuclear devices as tiny as those dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. So anybody who takes these numbers and thinks of their destructive power as being multiples of those two devices is staring from a false premise. Many (most?) of these weapons are at least 20 times more powerful than the larger of the two nukes dropped on Japan, and 2) Given that the total is over 25,000 nuclear weapons, I WISH I were more confident that there are not at least a few "rogue" weapons floating around the world...but that is a heck of a lot of nukes for there not to be a single one unaccounted for...especially given all of the upheaval in the former Soviet Union over the past 20-odd years. Given what I have seen of Russia's nuclear waste storage jok...I mean system, I am not as confident as I would like to be that their weapons inventory tracking operates like the proverbial Swiss watch...

    • 2 years ago
  • bailey78
  • cztheday
    • 0
      cztheday  

    • Hmmmmm. I would agree with the contention that it would be foolhardy for Iran to DETONATE a nuclear device...but if they could present credible evidence of the possession of several nuclear weapons as a fait accompli? From THEIR perspective I see only upside. In one stroke, they would join the Nuclear Club, strike fear in all of their neighbors, and extort the things they have been prevented by sanctions from purchasing directly.

      Bear with me. If Iran could provide persuasive evidence that it had, say, 10 multi-megaton nuclear devices -- half hidden in widely dispersed and hardened underground locations in-country and the other half hidden in five secret locations around the rest of the planet -- what exactly is Israel going to do? Nuke Iran, when three such devices would be adequate to annihilate Israel (for all practical purposes)? Engage in a CONVENTIONAL attack on Iran? Talk about futile...and suicidal...

      I am not particularly concerned about Iran ATTACKING somebody with a nuclear weapon. That WOULD be stupid. But from the perspective of THEIR "system" of government, ACQUIRING such weapons is simple common sense. In fact, this is even MORE true following the protests. The West (U.S., Europe and their allies) will back off so fast your head will spin if they are persuaded Iran has nukes.

    • 2 years ago
  • jh64487
    • 0
      jh64487  

    • well put article. it's irrational of the gov to enrich nuclear material...

      ...and they didn't survive this long by being idiots regardless of what peons like "clown puncher" may think.

    • 2 years ago
  • Nader123
  • Highr0ller
  • clownpuncher
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