Community | July 27, 2009 | 34 comments

World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/27/world-warming-faster-study

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WakeUpPeople
The world faces record-breaking temperatures as the sun's activity increases, leading the planet to heat up significantly faster than scientists had predicted for the next five years, according to a study.

The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. But new research firmly rejects that argument.

The research, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean, of the US Naval Research Laboratory, and David Rind, of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The work is the first to assess the combined impact on global temperature of four factors: human influences such as CO2 and aerosol emissions; heating from the sun; volcanic activity and the El Niño southern oscillation, the phenomenon by which the Pacific Ocean flips between warmer and cooler states every few years.

The analysis shows the relative stability in global temperatures in the last seven years is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lean and Rind's research also sheds light on the extreme average temperature in 1998. The paper confirms that the temperature spike that year was caused primarily by a very strong El Niño episode. A future episode could be expected to create a spike of equivalent magnitude on top of an even higher baseline, thus shattering the 1998 record.
  1. groups:
    Community,   Green,   Apocalypse News,   Global Warming
  2. tags:
    News,  World News,  Global Warming,  Temperature Rise
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34 comments // World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns

  • larrysnotes
  • onemalefla
  • larrysnotes
  • diode
  • mgerlach22
    • 0
      mgerlach22  

    • If you actually read the article that goes along with this picture, you'll find that the scientists blame much of this recent "heat wave" on a natural phenomenon (El Nino)...with emphasis on the 1998 temperature spike. Why must you eco-maniacs continuously shove this "world coming to an end, everyone drive hybrids, go buy solar panels" agenda down everyone's throats?

      And if you read into where this data has been derived from, you will find that the sources for surface temperature are highly concentrated over more densely populated areas. Translation: areas with higher susceptibility to increasing temperatures have more weight in the overall global temperature data. Point is, the data is skewed. It is not a true representation of the overall global temperature. Also...how do we know that the exact same devices and methods have been used to compile this data since 1850? This has not been a level playing field for data compilation over the course of the chart. Sounds like the charts some guy named Gore tried to use to prove his point.

    • 2 years ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • mgerlach22:

      Those are good points. If they had geared the transmissions correctly and a few other tricks we would never had needed hybrids. The move to make things more complicated (and $$$) was driving that, not fixing the planet. Now people have two engine systems to keep repaired PLUS they both have to be calibrated & finely turned to work together (mechanics more $$$$). Still boils down to more tax monies in circulation.

      Thanks for the observation about charts being different.

    • 2 years ago
  • liviu
  • neonbunny
  • advance1313
    • 0
      advance1313  

    • The earth has been much hotter than it is now, and much cooler. Earth's temperature is cyclical, just like anything else. Carbon is necessary to life, and it's not making the earth noticeably hotter. In fact, less than 2% of the increased temperatures on Earth are explained by the portion of carbon that humans have caused to be released.

      Global Warming is occurring, but it's completely out of our control. The idea that we can or should do something about it is simply a political instrument used by liberals as motivation to acheive their real goal, which is the redistribution of wealth from the haves to the have nots.

      If you believe in the redistribution of wealth, that's fine, but it annoys the shit out of me when people pretend that cap-and-trade or nationalized health care or cash for clunkers or any of these other ideas meant to provide "fairness" or "justice" or meant to "save the world" are anything but a mask for the redistribution of wealth.

      I just wish Obama would admit it. I know these comments won't go over well in this arena, but someone had to say it.

    • 2 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • advance1313:

      We should do something about it. Even if you don't agree with 97% of CLIMATologists on the global warming issue, you should at least want to stop pumping carcinogens into the air. You should at least want for us to explore, produce, and employ the use of renewable energy sources for our health, economy, and our national security. Why halt human progress when we have the ability to improve our way of living? The only reason for staying with our relatively ancient and ineffecient methods of energy production is to keep these old corporations in business. Should America continue to serve the past or should we look to the future? Why don't we just go back to using Betamax tapes, black and white tv sets, and Tandy computers while we're at it.

    • 2 years ago
  • advance1313
    • 0
      advance1313  
    • advance1313:

      Fair enough, we should try to make it better, but it's not the government's place to use our irresponsibility to redistribute wealth. And there's a line in the article description that says, "The hottest year on record was 1998". This is exactly the kind of deceptive crap you hear on movies like "An Inconvenient Truth" (hope Al Gore isn't reading, or I might get redacted like 4Chan). The earth has been 10000 degrees hotter and colder than it is now 5 times over, ON RECORD. Aah, it makes me mad. Well, I've got to get back to work to pay for all of my Obama tax increases. Late!

    • 2 years ago
  • thecoyote23
    • 0
      thecoyote23  

    • I have noticed, while living in the Illinois again for the first summer in over six years, that old people are talking about the strange weather. I think that is going to become more and more common around the country as the climate destabilization starts to accelerate. People are going to start noticing the changes to the cycles that have grown used to all their lives.

    • 2 years ago
  • remanns
  • neonbunny
  • estrahon
    • 0
      estrahon  
    • neonbunny:

      Bigger problems that this? Are you kidding? If all this is real, then when the time comes for the Earth to rid itself of all humanity then all the worlds problems would be petty compared to this. Who cares about war or starvation when the world literally sets fire?

    • 2 years ago
  • neonbunny
  • estrahon
    • 0
      estrahon  
    • neonbunny:

      Sorry for a second there I was thinking that the shrinking ozone layer and global warming were the same problem. Sure we can adapt to global warming but the increasing UV radiation can kill everything. That, you cannot adapt to.

    • 2 years ago
  • estrahon
    • 0
      estrahon  
    • neonbunny:

      As for the douchetard that told me to quit watching FOX news, which I don't, even if the world had bigger problems than global warming, you do realize that having to adapt to a changing environment will create even more problems as well as increase the ones we already have? Tell the people living in coastal areas that we have bigger problems when they're being evacuated out of their homes. Read up on Tegua for a small example, then multiply that by the amount of people living near the sea. Sure the world's not going to end, but the world as we know it will.

    • 2 years ago
  • neonbunny
  • neonbunny
  • estrahon
    • 0
      estrahon  
    • neonbunny:

      I don't mean to argue, only to point out the facts. But you're right that global warming will have it's benefits. But changes brought by global warming will be on a balancing scale.

    • 2 years ago
  • good_stuff
  • Gravity_Man
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • good_stuff:

      It was 3,000 record "low-highs" in July in the N.E. USA. When will everyone be able to see that you can't use a snapshot in time in a pinpointed location on this huge planet to definitively say that GLOBAL warming is a hoax or that it has even reversed. Climatologist are looking at data spread out over millenia, and 97% of these very educated people, with access to all sorts of data from all sorts of equipment, accept global warming as true. These scientists expected temperatures to plateau, which they have over the last 10 years, and now they expect temperatures to start rising again. It is a pattern of global warming reaching tipping points that causes the plateaus. Please do more research. I beg you.

    • 2 years ago
  • good_stuff
    • 0
      good_stuff  
    • good_stuff:

      I wasn't saying that 3000 local records proves or disproves anything. All I was thinking is that where I live, I can't remember a summer this mild. I went camping last weekend, and the lows were in the low 60's, when they are usually in the high 70's. I was very happy with this summer's mildness, and only hope that the forecasters are wrong in the coming years. Otherwise, I'm moving to canada (for the tempreture, not some other silly reason).

    • 2 years ago
  • mgerlach22
    • 0
      mgerlach22  
    • good_stuff:

      Wakeuppeople...

      You should practice what you preach. You said "When will everyone be able to see that you can't use a snapshot in time in a pinpointed location on this huge planet to definitively say that GLOBAL warming is a hoax or that it has even reversed." You make this statement on the same article you posted a temperature chart showing the past 160 years. Where the data for the previous million years? Your use of "snapshot evidence" while cutting others down for the same tactic is hypocritical and makes you look foolish.

    • 2 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • Image
    • good_stuff:

      CO2 levels are 27% higher than they have been in the last 650,000 years, which is as far back as we can go with ice core data. If you accept the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and if you accept the fact that the greenhouse effect raises temperatures, then it would be an awfully far stretch to assume that us pumping 30 BILLION metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year is not having an affect on the exponential temperature growth in the last 100 years. I know you want this to be an amazing cosmic coincidence, but it's not. The data is just not on your side of this argument.

    • 2 years ago
  • mgerlach22
    • 0
      mgerlach22  
    • good_stuff:

      Wake Up...

      Where to the past few years of global cooling fit into your argument? Another article you posted also showed that scientists agreed El Nino (a natural occurance) was a major contributor to the recent "heat wave" we're going through. So without El Nino, global temperatures may have increased much slower, or even decreased. So our global cooling spurt could actually be more like 10 years instead of the last 3. Why must youskew data to make it look like it's all human's fault? Are you set to get fat pockets from your fabricated catastrophe?

    • 2 years ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  

    • The parent article => http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/27/world-warming-faster-study tells that 1957 was a warm year like the period they claim we are facing again. I remember the early 60's as I was going to elementary school, and those mornings were BLISTERING COLD.

      We are on a CLIMATE ROLLER COASTER. If this next five years is going to be hotter than 1957 then it may very well cause the planet to drop into a 1960's-like temperature PLUMMET that will be much colder than the early 1960's, and we are riding both a roller coaster AND a climate pendulum. I would table the idea at this point is no longer conjecture => THE CHINESE in keeping with their construction of fossil fuel power plants is intentionally driving this coming hot season from lasting perhaps just 3 years into a 6-10 year hot season, or beyond, til every American is wasted.

      China is coming out the gate riding a Brahma bull and spurring her in the sides to make her buck harder and bull hoof us into the dirt. They are pushing the climate pendulum at us as hard as they can and the head of that pendulum is an axe blade that we are going to find is extremely sharp. We are being pushed into running a medieval gauntlet.

      We aren't "just" facing the retribution of a planet, which many naysayers chant we can ride out. Our opponent is this planet + China taking advantage of the increased solar. For them this is the opportunity of ten lifetimes to finish off the United States of America without firing a single weapon.

      We're the Indians now.

    • 2 years ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  

    • Plagiarists, Assassins! They used MY LINE => "These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases." I've been saying that, I have. I'm calling foul. This is War. Whew that felt good. There for a minute I felt like George Bush had inhabited my body. WOW, that money sure is heavy. Let's ride the sine wave to glory boys, but I think Texas already knows.

      Hey, wait. That's where the Bush Family cemetery is.

      This is getting like running with the bulls. I like it.

      T. Boone Pickens already fell.

    • 2 years ago
  • idealist
    • 0
      idealist  

    • they will try and hide the evidence and they will pay to lobby against the idea of climate change..... and bye they i mean republican big oil and timber owners!
      devil men and there devil jobs..

    • 2 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  

    • No time left to debate. The benefits of renewable energy are numerous, and you don't even have to accept global warming as fact. It's time for us to take the wealthiest corporations by the balls and tell them to stop delaying the human progress that might just save us.

    • 2 years ago
  • Sumbodyswatchin
    • 0
      Sumbodyswatchin  
    • WakeUpPeople:

      As long as money runs our country, there is all the time in the world for debate. Since when did scientific fact hold sway over people? In the US, ideas and facts are meaningless, the only power is in money. Those that have it get what they want, those without it get the shaft. And last time I checked, money doesnt grow on trees, bad luck Earth

    • 2 years ago
  • kennymotown
    • 0
      kennymotown  

    • WakeUpPeople did you read, as I'm sure you did about the Bush Administration hiding arctic pictures from the public. I bet we are going to find out a lot of information about the extreme climate change we are going through that somehow get view of the public eye thanks to that Bush crime family and the followers of denying.

    • 2 years ago
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