Community | October 23, 2009 | 34 comments

We Have Until 2014 To Stop Global Warming

source: http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-10/wwf-report-we-have-until-2014-stop-global-warming

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pjacobs51
It’s no secret that the world is warming, but a new report published by the World Wildlife Fund suggests we may not have as much time to mull solutions as we think. If the world doesn’t commit to green technologies by 2014, the report says, runaway global warming and economic meltdown are all but unstoppable.

Written by a group at the experts at Australian insurance consultancy Climate Risk, the transformation to a low-carbon world requires an effort “greater than any other industrial transformation witnessed in our history.” At minimum, the world needs to embrace – and by embrace, they mean to the absolute maximum – low-carbon technologies by 2014. A minimum growth in all green industries of 22% a year is necessary to achieve that goal, according to their research, and that’s just to cut emissions to 63% of 1990 levels by 2020.

But the WWF has more ambitious plans: a reduction to 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, an industrial revolution that would require growths between 24% and 29% every year. This is the best way to stave off the doomsday scenario of 2 degree Celsius (about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warming across the board, according to the report. Unfortunately, we have a long way to go.

The research relied on complex Monte Carlo models of industrial growth, resource allocation, and technological advance, but the basic reasoning is thus: total greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere are estimated 463 parts per million. Scientific research shows that a good comfortable spot for our atmosphere is about 400 ppm. But at around 475 ppm, a threshold that we are dangerously close to crossing, runaway climate change becomes increasingly more likely, at which point it will be difficult if not impossible to put the brakes on global warming.

Now, having said all that, it’s important to note that this isn’t the first doomsday climate change scenario to emerge, especially recently. Just today, two British Cabinet ministers showed off their own doomsday map, detailing rising sea levels and submerged cities that would result from a 4 degree Celsius (7.2 degree Fahrenheit) rise in global temps. President Obama has pledged a greenhouse gas reduction of 80 percent by 2050 (an easy promise to make with a two term limit), while the EU has stated that it will match those efforts if a deal is sealed at December’s UN climate change conference in Copenhagen.

But the WWF report, if taken seriously, places a new urgency on the issue. For one, most climate strategies rely upon an incremental ratcheting down of emissions while slowly transitioning to low-carbon sources of energy all the way up to 2050. According to WWF, this schedule simply won’t hack it. Further, WWF points out that only three of the 20 green technologies they’ve reviewed are moving forward fast enough to hit the 2014 deadline: wind, solar, and biodiesel. Other technological initiatives like low-carbon agriculture, sustainable forestry, and other forms of green energy generation are sorely lacking. The outlook, it seems, is dim.

What happens if we miss the deadline? According to the WWF report, from there things become increasingly difficult. Post-2014, low-carbon industries will need to grow at a minimum of 29% per year, and that’s just to have a better than 50% chance of staving off that nearly 4-degree Fahrenheit spike in global temperatures. But the news isn’t all bad: while the transition will be tough, long term investment in green energies should pay off, with renewable energy savings alone in the period between 2013 and 2050 expected to hit $47 trillion if we cut by 80 percent, a positive number among many grim figures.
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34 comments // We Have Until 2014 To Stop Global Warming

  • Joe_Sivula
    • 0
      Joe_Sivula  

    • “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

    • 1 year ago
  • robidog
    • 0
      robidog [removed]  

    • Climate Change exists it is a NATURAL phenomenon driven mainly by Sun spot activities. There is not ONE scientific paper which PROVES that the MINISCULE amounts of CO2 in the air emitted by MAN have any noticeable effect on climate whatsoever. The earth has been COOLING for the past 12 years while man's CO2 emissions have continued to RISE. The NATURAL state of the planet over thousands of years is FAR warmer than it is now. CO2 rises ALWAYS follow Global Warming they NEVER precede it ask a GEOLOGIST not a CLIMATOLOGIST who cant even tell you if it will rain tomorrow. CO2 is not a pollutant... it is a VITAL part of the cycle of life... it feeds plants plants feeds humans and animals..... MORE CO2 more plants more food better for life, LESS CO2 less plants man and animals starve. So apart from being TOTALLY wrong about AGW, Green NAZI's are also anti LIFE.

      The core issue here is totalitarianism.

      DDT was the spearhead of the WHO campaign to eradicate Malaria. Violet Carsons book "Silent Spring" , triggering the Environmentalist movement, lead to DDT being banned. The first big "Green" victory. Malaria remains endemic throughout much of the world. Since DDT was banned it has killed at least 100 million people. Ergo, Environmentalism has been responsible for more deaths than Hitler and Stalin together. Truly, it deserves a place alongside the worst totalitarian dogmas in Human history.

    • 2 years ago
  • thematrix777
    • 0
      thematrix777  

    • The sky is falling...the sky is falling.............

      When will people realize this is another gimmick for Al Gore to make more money...Look at the facts, people.

      Why can't you global warming nuts see you are being fed a line of crap; again.

      Wake up. Learn to read.

    • 2 years ago
  • CalgarC
  • elena_g
    • 0
      elena_g  

    • There is some definite truth to what many of you are saying. It is likely that we have already gone beyond the tipping point. Unless knowledgeable people take the initiative to educate uninformed individuals about the unfortunate results of global climate change, we cannot expect everyone to become involved with green technologies and eco-friendly lifestyles.
      We see the damage that is occuring daily, both from the media and through our own eyes. Those of us who have the means to react appropriately should make every effort to reduce our personal carbon footprint, but not everyone does.
      Scare tactics sometimes work, but I couldn't agree more with the guy who mentioned that hot coals need to be shoved up the asses of irresponsible individuals in order for change to occur.

    • 2 years ago
  • abehammy
  • VitaminB2
  • Ihatethemall
  • neonbunny
  • monijr01
  • Ihatethemall
  • monijr01
    • 0
      monijr01  
    • Ihatethemall:

      do you wear a hat made of aluminum foil? do you smoke 6 packs a day and eat only foods loaded with trans fats, because the food and drug administration told you not to?

      I hate the government too, but the majority of academic leaders and NGOs around the world attest to the fact that climate changing is happening and we are making it worse. I worked in the San Joaquin Delta doing fish doing fish salvage, and i took the temperature in that delta every day. Over the past 80 years we've seen a 4 degree rise in average delta temperatures. Seems like a small amount but all those fish are going to die shortly, and the delta is being swallowed by the ocean's rising anyhow. You don't need the gov to tell you, so hear's a link to an NGO site: http://www.usclimatenetwork.org/

    • 2 years ago
  • Ihatethemall
  • clayjj05
  • pjacobs51
  • remanns
  • Panzer_Tanzler
  • larrysnotes
  • Ihatethemall
  • JeremyTG77
  • Nephwrack
  • larrysnotes
  • Ihatethemall
    • 0
      Ihatethemall  
    • Ihatethemall:

      Becasue I can.

      To try to wake up even one person to the real deal and inform everyone that all politicians are lying thieving bastards that would sell us ALL down the river if there was a profit to be made or an election to be won.

      @ NEPH:

      I challenge you to find ONE story where I was asked the same question that the guy above you asked me and I didnt answer. ONE TIME can you do it or are you shooting off your mouth without any way of backing it up??????

      Are you a typical democrat who says stuff without backing it up or will you back up what you say? I will check back in a bit.

    • 2 years ago
  • Nephwrack
  • Ihatethemall
    • 0
      Ihatethemall  
    • Ihatethemall:

      Give me a link instead of an insult. Where did you ask me that? NOWHERE, thats why you cant provide a link to it.......hahahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahHA

      Those personal attacks will eventually get you a letter from the friendly folks at current. They seem to get pissed off about it. I dont care, I hate censorship too.

    • 2 years ago
  • Nephwrack
  • Ihatethemall
    • 0
      Ihatethemall  
    • Ihatethemall:

      It must really suck to not be able to back up what you say with a link to the stories where you asked me that question. I really never even recall you or your name until tonight. I guess I must make more of an impression on you than you make on me. Not that I am surprised about it.

    • 2 years ago
  • pjacobs51
  • Ihatethemall
  • monijr01
  • stephenthomson
  • Saladin
    • 0
      Saladin  

    • Nope, this report is pure bullshit.

      It's way sooner. (Made you look)

      It was too late in 2005, by 2014 we would just slow down the rate of the runaway carbon effect. The methane has been released from the ice, even if we did nothing and pulled a full stop right now we'd likely see it happen in about 100 years.

    • 2 years ago
  • schobiz
    • 0
      schobiz  

    • Unfortunately I think the majority of modern society won't embrace this type of transformation until there is a globally warm coal shoved up their asses. And if that is the only way, so be it. I'm ready for the change.

    • 2 years ago
  • larrysnotes
  • monijr01
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