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The idea that the world is now cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, talk radio, pundit television and more. After a poll was released last week indicating that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, which is down from 77 percent in 2006, Seth Borenstein from the Associated Press decided to check out what the statistics are really saying about global warming or cooling. In a blind test, Borenstein sent accumulated ground temperature data from the past 130 years to four independent statisticians. He disguised the sources (NASA, NOAA and British meteorological data) and didn't tell the statisticians what the numbers represented; he asked them to just look for trends in the data. The experts found no true temperature declines over time; additionally, the last ten years comprise not only the highest data set in the record, but they also have a continued, positive trend.

It seems recent weather trends have been cool — 2008 was cooler than previous years, especially the really hot years of 1998 and 2005.

Borenstein wanted to know if this was a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs. All four of the statisticians agreed independently the statistics overall clearly show an upward trend of warming. Also included was a data set of satellite temperature data that is often favored by skeptics of global warming. Same story there: global temps are on the rise.

The ups and downs during the last decade, which some skeptics say show a cooling rather than warming, are variations that are repeated randomly in data as far back as 1880.
One statistician said that "cherry-picking" a micro-trend within a bigger trend is not the way to look at data.

This "blind" review of the data isn't the only review that has shown obvious warming. Borenstein said that NOAA recently re-examined its data because of the recent "chatter" about cooling, and no cooling trend was found, and earlier this year, climate scientists in two peer-reviewed publications statistically analyzed recent years' temperatures against claims of cooling and found them not valid.

For the full story, read Borenstein's article here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_sc/us_sci_global_cooling
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74 comments // The stats are in: no global cooling

  • Uelthomas
    • 0
      Uelthomas  
    • Okay no ones denying that currently the climate is getting warmer but this is in no way our fault. Go outside, look up, big ain't it, CO2 makes up around 1 percent of all the gases in the air, of that CO2 we produce about 1 percent with the rest being naturally released. Okay so CO2 is a greenhouse gas but as a greenhouse gas its pretty crap, easily beaten by water vapour.

      Its the sun, the big ball of fire, FIRE, a huge nuclear reactor, the hottest thing you could imagine, and the heat it radiates to us varies over time (starting to make sense here), in fact scientists (real ones, not paid off or for personal gain) have compared data on the number of sunspots (concentrated magnetic field, throwing out heat and energy) and the earths temperature, perfect match.

      Now as for Al Snores only "evidence" for a man-made global warming, when he shows the correlation of rising CO2 levels and temperature rises, yeah thats kinda right BUT the interepreted the wrong way. Think about it, basic science experiments at high school, measuring the release of gas during a reaction, the more you heat it up the more gas is released. The CO2 isn't the cause its a product of the increasing temperature caused by the increase of solar activity of the sun. This has been proved as there is a lag of about a hundred years for the increase of CO2 behind the temperature rise.

    • 2 years ago
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Uelthomas:

      "Go outside, look up, big ain't it,"

      The volume of gas is inversely proportional to pressure.

      "Okay so CO2 is a greenhouse gas but as a greenhouse gas its pretty crap, easily beaten by water vapour."

      So you admit that more CO2 has a greenhouse effect? But you don't believe it is a problem yet.

      When do you think it will be a problem? Our CO2 emissions are increasing nearly logarithmically. If it isn't a problem now, when will it be?

      At minimum you should see the danger that this *eventually* will be, even if you insist that all current temperature changes can be attribute, and help us act to reduce CO2 for the same reasons.

      "have compared data on the number of sunspots and the earths temperature"

      Historical records of sunspot activity are tiny compared to the ice core records of CO2. Those are not apples to apples evidence, not even in the same league.

      Not to mention that sunspot activity has no ability to explain a continuous warming trend illustrated by temperature data from numerous historical sources (e.g. lake bed strata, tree rings and ice cores).

      "Think about it, basic science experiments at high school, measuring the release of gas during a reaction, the more you heat it up the more gas is released."

      This confuses me. What natural chemical reaction which produces CO2 do you think increased temperatures are accelerating?

    • 2 years ago
  • Uelthomas
    • 0
      Uelthomas  
    • Uelthomas:

      Just watch this, should explain it rather simply. Just think about it, use basic common sense, what could cause the changing climate of a planet, man running machines and burning fuel for energy OR the SUN, the biggest hottest thing in the solar system, which is so big and has a magnetic pull so strong that taken into account how far we and the other planets are still has us trapped in orbit and provides us with enough heat and energy to sustain life.

    • 2 years ago
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Uelthomas:

      "... and has a magnetic pull so strong that taken into account how far we and the other planets are still has us trapped in orbit "

      You know it isn't magnetism that keeps us revolving around the sun... right?

    • 2 years ago
  • Uelthomas
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Uelthomas:

      "Just watch the movie, Gravity is a form of magnetism, and the Suns actual magnetic field is huge and affects our atmosphere, especially during sunspot activity."

      A.) What movie are you talking about?

      B.) Gravity and magnetism have absolutely nothing to do with each other. In fact much of the current work in physics is to figure out why EM forces (like magnetism) are so strong and why space-time altering forces (like gravity) are so weak.

      C.) Magnetic fields fall off with a square of distance. It is impossible that the sun's field would extend as far as the Earth.

      D.) Sunspots often indicate solar flare activity, which are discharges of charged particles from the Sun that the Earth's magnetic field largely deflects around us.

    • 2 years ago
  • Uelthomas
  • laserdog
  • SamuraiDave
    • 0
      SamuraiDave  
    • As usual the anti-global warming commitee here has offered up such brilliant counter-arguments that it's soooo hard to make an intelligent rational decision here

    • 2 years ago
  • oly90808
  • idealist
  • future1
    • 0
      future1  
    • The headline was about COOLING. Just want to put that out there in case someone got confused. Just saw a Current or Gword show about the warming of Alaska. It was very telling.

    • 2 years ago
  • carmalite
    • 0
      carmalite  
    • The correct answer is not yet available. They need more research and study.
      I would like to see the glaciers in the Andes and Greenland once again freezing and retreating! If we are not warming, that is good news. But we need more study. There are groups of polluters who really want to get rid of the idea of global warming.
      We need critical uninvolved science.

    • 2 years ago
  • thedirtman
    • 0
      thedirtman  
    • carmalite:

      We already knew more CO2 would increase atmospheric temperatures 100 years ago. Why do you say more study is needed?... other than study is usually a good thing. The greenhouse gas effect is shown in molecular theory, by laboratory experiment, and by terrestial bodies such as Earth and Venus. Astronomers predict the temperatures of planets just knowing the distance from the sun and the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The buildup of CO2 gas in the Biosphere II experiment caused its failure. The few credible scientific skeptics, such as Lomborg, start off by admitting some level of AGW exists. How much evidence could you possibly want or need?

    • 2 years ago
  • grease_weasel
    • 0
      grease_weasel  
    • I'm pro global warming for the record. I want to live in a warmer climate, and now I wont have to move. Also given enough time I might actually own ocean front property. This is why I leave my Hummer running when I goto the 711 for my super sized soda.

    • 2 years ago
  • carmalite
    • 0
      carmalite  
    • grease_weasel:

      I guess you don't know much about the effects if there is real global warming.

      Think about millions of refuges fleeing to your area, because they had to vacate their flooded area along the Gulf Coast.
      You evidently have no idea. I would be delighted if we have no global warming.

    • 2 years ago
  • thedirtman
  • grease_weasel
    • 0
      grease_weasel  
    • grease_weasel:

      Sweet, it will be easy to rent a room with all those refuges. I will need the extra money because it's expensive to leave my Hummer running all the time.

      I guess it wasn't that obvious to you 2 I was joking.

    • 2 years ago
  • lj111
  • Ares
    • 0
      Ares  
    • Image
    • Pictured above is a research facility on the South Pole. That white stuff is ice and snow.

      The point of these photos are to make you realize that science tells us that the poles grow and shrink over time to compensate for climate changes. They will continue to do this, whether we like it or not. Statistics showing it aren't going to change it.

    • 2 years ago
  • idealist
    • 0
      idealist  
    • Ares:

      you ever heard of a time graph? well.. there's one out there that shows that the ice is not coming back as abundant as it was. it might go back to normal.. in a thousand years.

    • 2 years ago
  • dancore
    • 0
      dancore  
    • That website (science and public policy.org) is ran by Robert Ferguson is hardly a reliable source. He has no credibility on the subject (with him only having a masters degree in legislative affairs) who was former chief of staff to three republican politicians (could this site be politically motivated?!?!.
      I urge you to read some of the non-biased, peer reviewed scientific literature to come to your conclusion and not believing some bullshit website that was created by a non-scientist to discuss science.
      This debate shouldn't be politicized, but unfortunately it is

    • 2 years ago
  • Ares
    • 0
      Ares  
    • Image
    • dancore:

      Fine, if that's too bias for you, how about this gem?

      That's right. The North Pole is still there. It hasn't melted and revealed the gates of fire, waiting to unleash untold demons of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases upon the public.

    • 2 years ago
  • dancore
    • 0
      dancore  
    • dancore:

      Why don't you educate yourself on what the scientific experts, who have/are dedicating their lives to studying and reporting are discussing in the SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE.
      Or why don't you try to talk to some experts in the geosciences, or attend lectures, talk to graduate students that are studying that field.

      This is a great article from one of my profs when I was an undergraduate who is studying in the Arctic:
      http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/325/5946/1355

      You can't believe everything that's on the internet is true, especially if its from a politically motivated website masquerading as a legitimate scientific source.

    • 2 years ago
  • JanforGore
    • 0
      JanforGore  
    • Lord Monckton? What BS. I HAVE EYES. DO YOU? So sick of this tit for tat back and forth about my evidence beats yours while the effects of this REAL crisis effecting REAL people takes hold because YOU want to make a BS political point. Open your damned eyes and look for yourself. I'm done here.

    • 2 years ago
  • Ares
  • NuclearLullaby
  • Ares
  • Daniel_J
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Ares:

      Take *that* 3 year old movie that nobody brought up!

      I guess that completely dispels the results of three independent statisticians on the question of whether there have been global cooling trends!

    • 2 years ago
  • Ares
    • 0
      Ares  
    • Ares:

      Ignoring that film's influence on the global warming issue is incredibly foolish. We have Al Gore to thank, almost solely, for bringing this horse shit into the media spot light. These statistics are coming from a predictable trend of empirical science's innate desire to perpetuate their own positions of prestige. Nobody will be talking about this in 5 years. Tops.

    • 2 years ago
  • noephoto
    • 0
      noephoto  
    • Ares:

      The Science and Public Policy Institute is run by a man who has been funded by Exxon. I'd definitely believe anything he has to say about climate change...

    • 2 years ago
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Ares:

      "Ignoring that film's influence on the global warming issue is incredibly foolish."

      That is like a hockey commentator insisting on the right to bring up "The Mighty Ducks" in every single hockey game he does.

      "Influential" doesn't mean "relevant to the current discussion".

      That fact that you're dragging out a straw man that you're super good at hitting just tells me you have no credible counter-argument to the article's scientific points and are ceding all formalities of debate.

    • 2 years ago
  • JanforGore
  • Daniel_J
  • Ares
    • 0
      Ares  
    • JanforGore:

      I'll take comfort in the fact that the Earth is purely objective, and it doesn't give a shit about you nutty environmentalists either.

      You people keep screaming until you're hoarse about how we're destroying the planet, and people like me will keep manufacturing your cars so you can drive to protests.

    • 2 years ago
  • JanforGore
  • Ares
  • JanforGore
  • idealist
  • Ares
  • Daniel_J
  • Lurkistan
  • Ares
    • 0
      Ares  
    • Ares:

      You're so cute when you're angry. Please don't sell ALL of your possessions when the "apocalypse" comes in 2012. Surely the Mayans predicted our annihilation of the Earth's atmosphere. Damn our lack of hindsight in the critical matter of global warming. GOD HELP US IF WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WEATHER!

    • 2 years ago
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Ares:

      If only we were talking something as simple as a 2012 "instant apocalypse".

      The fear is that Global Climate Change will begin to displace large populations of people, interrupt crop growth and cause disease epidemics by introducing certain animals and insects into new regions.

      So yes, unchecked Global Climate change may very well lead to war, famine and pestilence. Which is worse? A predestined apocalypse on a certain date? Or one that was completely preventable?

    • 2 years ago
  • Ares
    • 0
      Ares  
    • Ares:

      "So yes, unchecked Global Climate change may very well lead to war, famine and pestilence, and the effect that will have on humanity."

      I guess we'll just have to wait and see, won't we? If it's true that we are to blame for these trends (we aren't), then it's surely too late for us to do anything on a large enough scale to reverse it.

      You keep buying dangerous organic food, driving your Prius that's using precious earth stones, and protesting, and I'll start cleaning my guns.

    • 2 years ago
  • Daniel_J
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Ares:

      "I guess we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?"

      Or we convince enough people that minor changes now will be several order of magnitudes cheaper than adapting to large scale change later?

      "If it's true that we are to blame for these trends (we aren't), then it's surely too late for us to do anything on a large enough scale to reverse it."

      I for one, would settle for "not making things worse", which is clearly in our power.

      "You keep buying dangerous organic food, driving your Prius that's using precious earth stones, and protesting, and I'll start cleaning my guns."

      Wow, you really put your imaginary version of me in his place!

      At minimum, I apparently have gotten you to go from "not giving a shit" to "cleaning guns", which I count as a victory towards raising overall awareness of climate change.

    • 2 years ago
  • Daniel_J
  • Saladin
    • 0
      Saladin  
    • Daniel_J:

      Noooo, says the AP and the link provided by the article poster.

      This is the most annoying post that ever comes across this site.

      "Current" doesn't post ANYTHING, WE post shit. You could post stuff against global warming if you really wanted to!

    • 2 years ago
  • Daniel_J
  • JanforGore
  • Daniel_J
  • JanforGore
  • Daniel_J
  • idealist
  • maasanova
    • 0
      maasanova  
    • Do "independent statisticians" who have conducted this research constitute a consensus among the scientific community?

      It seems that there really is no way to prove that the earth is warming or cooling based on scientific data that is constantly changing, so let's look at the agenda behind this global warming movement.

      Based on my cursory research, it seems like a bunch of crooked politicians, working for international banks, are trying to set up a system of credit based on carbon, and you will pay your "carbon taxes" directly to investment banks run by people like Al Gore. And no this isn't just a slam on Al Gore, he's just a low level compared to investment giants like NM Rothschilds who have also set up a carbon trading scam.

    • 2 years ago
  • Saladin
    • 0
      Saladin  
    • maasanova:

      If that's the extent of your research, you haven't done much more than read conspiracy theory websites maas.

      Here, listen to a scientist who presents both sides of the issue. He's worked with proponents and skeptics of the theory and was an expert for the IPCC and Kyoto.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52KLGqDSAjo

      And also, to pretend that there isn't a strong commercial/political agenda AGAINST the science of global warming is equally as nauseating as claiming Al Gore is a saint.

    • 2 years ago
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • maasanova:

      "It seems that there really is no way to prove that the earth is warming or cooling based on scientific data that is constantly changing"

      Huh? By that logic it would be impossible to say if the stock market trended up or down on a given day because it changed too much during the day?

    • 2 years ago
  • maasanova
    • 0
      maasanova  
    • maasanova:

      Saladin are you're saying that that the carbon trading schemes that are already set up by global investment banks like NM Rothschild is a conspiracy "theory?" All science aside, the carbon trading scheme just looks like another ponzi scheme.

      Rothschild Australia and E3 International to take the lead in the global carbon trading market"

      http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=90090 (not a conspiracy theory website)

      "Rothschild Australia and E3 International are set to become key players in the international carbon credit trading market, an emerging commodity market that analysts estimate could be worth up to US$150 billion by 2012."

    • 2 years ago
  • Lurkistan
    • 0
      Lurkistan  
    • maasanova:

      Good call Saladin, all you have to do is look at the people who know the most about the Earth's climate and MOST of them see that global warming is happening and will get a lot worse. This should not be a political issue it should be logical one, if its happening its happening no amount of spin can change that.

    • 2 years ago
  • Saladin
    • 0
      Saladin  
    • maasanova:

      Maas, to avoid basically re-posting the same comment I sent you a PM.

      Sorry for calling that stuff "conspiracy theories," but I'm not interested in the politics, I'm interested in the science.

      Check that pm I sent you and then get back to me.

    • 2 years ago
  • vesher
    • 0
      vesher  
    • maasanova:

      cap and trade will not work. it simply another market to be created and then exploited. to address the environment, the enemy is waste and the goal is maximum efficiency.

    • 2 years ago
  • JanforGore
  • Lurkistan
  • dancore
    • 0
      dancore  
    • 1) What does Obama writing a book have anything to do with this? I don't understand the statement.

      2) Al Gore does fly in planes and buys expensive electricity, but I heard he buys carbon offsets (like thats some sort of excuse); until the US gets a good, reliable rail system (like in Europe) planes are the quickest ways to travel long distance (I am in no ways defending his use of planes, just making a counter argument). He has also taken steps to make his house more energy efficient, which everyone should do to save money and limit carbon emisions (there is a recent article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) which outlines ways for households to limit carbon emissions: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/10/23/0908738106)
      Al Gore always gets brought into these discussions because of an Inconvenient Truth, which he was just the mediator between the complex scientific literature and the public (much like the crocodile hunter was a mediator between the biological world of reptiles and the public). Science needs people who can effectively communicate the complex science to the public, and Al Gore filled that role by describing very complex models, results, conclusions such, most of which were in the peer reviewed literature). Unfortunately, because of his career as a politician, people are more skeptical/critical of him. Climate skeptics always nit-pick and point out the inconsistencies within the movie, but these inconsistencies came after the publication of the movie (after 2005), when the movie was put together he was discussing the most current results related to climate change at the time.

      3) For some good peer review articles that I can think of off the top of my head (all these papers have great references there-in which are also peer reviewed and necessary to look at for this discussion:
      Seidel et al. (2007). Widening of a tropical belt in a changing climate, Nature Geoscience.
      http://jisao.washington.edu/print/news/naturegeoscience_12-05-07_WideningOfTheTr...

      Post et al. (2009). Ecological Dynamics Across the Arctic Associated with Recent Climate Change, Science.
      http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/325/5946/1355

      Axford, Y. et al. (2009). Recent changes in a remote Arctic lake are unique within the past 200,000 yrs, PNAS.
      http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/10/16/0907094106.abstract

      Williamson et al. 2009. Sentinels of Change, Science, 13:887-888.

      Severinghaus, J. et al. 2009. Oxygen-18 of O2 records the impact of abrupt climate change on the terrestrial biosphere, 12:1431-1434, Science.

      Montes-Hugo, M. et al. 2009. Recent changes in Phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic peninsula, Science, 13:1470-1473.

      Greene, C.H. and Pershing, A.J. 2007. Climate drives sea change, Science, 23:1084-1085.

      Malhi, Y. et al. 2007. Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon, Science, 11:169-172.

      As you can see, the scientific literature (i.e. peer reviewed literature) is very complex and dense, making it necessary for a mediator (such as Al Gore) to explain the complex science in a manner that the public, without any scientific background, can understand.

    • 2 years ago
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • dancore:

      Poe's Law proved again I fear. =)

      Apologies, I was attempting to mock those views, not put them forward as a credible argument.

      I don't know how long you've been on this site, but I guarantee you will run into people who do nothing but post those same 3x non-sequiturs in every political (and often non-political) article.

      Check back tomorrow, I'll be shocked if someone hasn't non-ironically raised at least 2 of those three. =)

    • 2 years ago
  • dancore
  • nursediesel
  • laserdog
    • 0
      laserdog  
    • Since no one who is crazy has spoken up here, let me introduce their side of this argument, if only so that we can get a balanced discussion going.

      1.) Obama didn't write his book!
      2.) Al Gore flies in planes and buys expensive electricity!
      3.) Lots of links to confusing graphs, none of which are from a peered reviewed study.

    • 2 years ago
  • mojojuju
  • zphoenixdownz
  • dancore
    • 0
      dancore  
    • Image
    • Here is a link to the full article posted by the AP.
      As a graduate student in the Earth Sciences I come across a lot of anti-climate change students, a lot of it is based on ignorance and claims that political punditry talking heads are more reputable than scientists. This is just another piece of evidence I can use in my (many) discussions on climate change.

    • 2 years ago
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