Your guide to the 2009 elections

Hey all! If you haven't been following the political pulse lately here's the place you can catch up. The big news is the Nov 3rd elections with major battles in NJ, Va., NY, and Maine. here's a breakdown of those elections.

NJ Gubernatorial Race:

The NJ race has three major candidates and are polling at the following %s.;

Jon Corzine (D-incumbent) 42%
Chris Christie (R) 43%
Chris Dagget (I) (8%)

Though Republican Chris Christie has a very slight lead, its a well know fact that Democrats poll lower in NJ, yet win by higher then expected margins. So, I'll call this a tossup with a razor thin advantage to Corzine (despite the #s)
Virgina Gubernatorial Race:

The Va. race is pretty clear, Republican candidate Robert McDonnell is polling at 53% whereas the Democrat Creigh Deeds is only at 41%. This ensures a Republican victory. The question is whether Deeds will lose by double digits or just single digits.

New York 23rd Congressional District:

After President Obama appointed the Republican Congressman to the position of Secretary of the Army this district scheduled a special election, one that was supposed to be a slam dunk for Republicans (the district hasn't elected a Democrat since the Civil War). However, after a third party candidate injected himself into the race, claiming that the Republican wasn't conservative enough (despite the fact that Dede Scozzafava has a record slightly to the right of most NY Republicans) th race has tightened, but it doesn't end there.

The Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the election sighting her poll #s . Following her withdraw, Scozzafava made a stunning move by endorsing Democratic candidate Bill Owens. It's believed that she feels Douglas Hoffman is too conservative (he was endorsed by Sarah Palin, plus the man doesn't even live in the district). Here are the poll#s.

Bill Owens (D) 36%
Doug Hoffman (Conservative Party) 35%
Scozzafava (20%).

I'm going to rate this as a clusterf#$k. Quite frankly this is anyone's game. But based on historical voting patterns, I'll just take a shot in the dark and say Hoffman will win.

Maine Referendum on Same-Sex Marriage:

Maine recently passed a same-sex marriage law granting equal rights to homosexuals. A push by conservatives allowed them to post a proposition question on whether to overturn the law or not. Voting "NO" would keep the law; voting "YES" would overturn it. Poll #s below.

"NO" 53%
"YES" 42%

It's clear that same sex-marriage will stay legal in Maine.

Finally, what does this all mean? If the Republicans sweep both Gubernatorial races and the congressional race, that's bad news for Democrats. However, if the Democrats hold on to NJ (as an NJ resident, I think they will), and give a decent showing in NY23 it means that the party is in good shape and progressive policies are still gaining traction. But either way, republicans need to watch out; intra-party conflicts could easily decimate Republican chances in 2010 and 2012. A democrat could easily win by a plurality if Republicans face opposition from ultra-right wing candidates.

Note: I'll be posting updates throughout the day, and on Tuesday, I'll post a webcam and will give constant updates.