Community | November 03, 2009 | 24 comments

Today is Election Day!

Image
current89
Hey all! Today is election day! Please chime in! Tell me who you think will win and who you think will lose! Share your thoughts...do you think this election will have national implications? Is it a precursor to the 2010 elections? You decide!

Below is a short analysis of each of the major elections.

NJ Gubernatorial Race:

The NJ race has three major candidates and are polling at the following %s.;

Jon Corzine (D-incumbent) 42%
Chris Christie (R) 43%
Chris Dagget (I) (8%)

Though Republican Chris Christie has a very slight lead, its a well know fact that Democrats poll lower in NJ, yet win by higher then expected margins. So, I'll call this a tossup with a razor thin advantage to Corzine (despite the #s)
Virgina Gubernatorial Race:

The Va. race is pretty clear, Republican candidate Robert McDonnell is polling at 53% whereas the Democrat Creigh Deeds is only at 41%. This ensures a Republican victory. The question is whether Deeds will lose by double digits or just single digits.

New York 23rd Congressional District:

After President Obama appointed the Republican Congressman to the position of Secretary of the Army this district scheduled a special election, one that was supposed to be a slam dunk for Republicans (the district hasn't elected a Democrat since the Civil War). However, after a third party candidate injected himself into the race, claiming that the Republican wasn't conservative enough (despite the fact that Dede Scozzafava has a record slightly to the right of most NY Republicans) th race has tightened, but it doesn't end there.

The Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the election sighting her poll #s . Following her withdraw, Scozzafava made a stunning move by endorsing Democratic candidate Bill Owens. It's believed that she feels Douglas Hoffman is too conservative (he was endorsed by Sarah Palin, plus the man doesn't even live in the district). Here are the poll#s.

Bill Owens (D) 36%
Doug Hoffman (Conservative Party) 35%
Scozzafava (20%).

I'm going to rate this as a clusterf#$k. Quite frankly this is anyone's game. But based on historical voting patterns, I'll just take a shot in the dark and say Hoffman will win.

Maine Referendum on Same-Sex Marriage:

Maine recently passed a same-sex marriage law granting equal rights to homosexuals. A push by conservatives allowed them to post a proposition question on whether to overturn the law or not. Voting "NO" would keep the law; voting "YES" would overturn it. Poll #s below.

"NO" 53%
"YES" 42%

It's clear that same sex-marriage will stay legal in Maine.

Finally, what does this all mean? If the Republicans sweep both Gubernatorial races and the congressional race, that's bad news for Democrats. However, if the Democrats hold on to NJ (as an NJ resident, I think they will), and give a decent showing in NY23 it means that the party is in good shape and progressive policies are still gaining traction. But either way, republicans need to watch out; intra-party conflicts could easily decimate Republican chances in 2010 and 2012. A democrat could easily win by a plurality if Republicans face opposition from ultra-right wing candidates.
  1. groups:
    Community,   Current Tonight,   US Politics,   News_Featured
  2. tags:
  3. recommended by:
    current89,
    Nettle,
    DeliaTheArtist
  4.     
    |

24 comments // Today is Election Day!

  • Chique
    • 0
      Chique  

    • What I see being reported is that according to polling the Republicans were voted in because of local issues and that Obama's ratings remain high by those voting. Most are saying these elections have nothing to do with Obama.

    • 3 years ago
  • samthesixth
    • 0
      samthesixth  
    • Chique:

      That would be spin. VA went for Obama by 15% and that every blue county, expect one, went red in Northern Virginia. Dems and Indies who went with Obama only one year ago, voted Repub. Also, the head of the DNC was VA's governor. He failed to deliver what he could only a year ago. Clearly this is/was a reflection of Obama.

    • 3 years ago
  • unclecharlie
    • 0
      unclecharlie  

    • Nice to see that both Virginia and New Jersey saw the light and voted in Republicans. (me, I lean Libertarian- but it's nice to see a democrat or two getting shown the door...)

    • 3 years ago
  • samthesixth
  • JohnA
  • JohnA
  • current89
  • ibrake4rappers13
  • brianwilson
    • 0
      brianwilson  

    • These election results, as they come, are only a precursor to their specific locals in the upcoming elections, and imply nothing about other districts or trends there. It would be more useful for us to look at separate polls for each location to get the best idea as to what will happen there, just as the political parties have done and will continue to do in order to determine where to dump their cash.

      Not everything is as clear cut and dry as we'd like to think. Sometimes we forget that the performance of our local candidates are rooted not in their political alliance (such as Democrat or Republican), but in their personal choices on the floor. Their constituents on the ground will react in accordance to what they've done for them in their daily lives.

      Of course, I could be giving far too much benefit to the motivation of the average voter and not enough to the mass public relations campaigns by both of the main parties involved. In which case we could talk all about how this is a precursor of some sort... but I'd like to think at this point fellow voters are generally not as apathetic as they have been in the past.

    • 3 years ago
  • afitzgerald
  • asherp
    • 0
      asherp  
    • afitzgerald:

      While working on the No On One campaign, I met a man from California. His partner lived in Maine, and was working here full time. He was finishing things up to be able to move out to get married, but then Prop 8 overturned their right to marry.

      This man's partner, living here in Maine, was diagnosed with cancer. It came on strong, and he was hospitalized. This man I met, and I forget his name, came out from California, but was not allowed to visit his partner in the hospital, and his partner died without either of them ever being able to say goodbye.

      He went back to California. But then the No on One campaign started here, and he came back to make sure that this never happened to anybody else.

      I met an older woman, about the age of my grandmother. She and her partner of 20 years had already been married in their church, but they wanted to make it legal so they could enjoy the same rights as straight couples. They were so excited about this law, and had started making their wedding plans for this spring. They poured everything into the No on One campaign.

      I met a woman about the age of my mother. She is a state legislator and a practicing physician. She has three sons, two of whom are gay. While the legislative session is over, she also took the past week off from practicing medicine to spend time canvassing and phone banking with the campaign, because it doesn't make sense that one of her sons should be able to marry whom they love, but two of her sons should not.

      I'm straight, so this law doesn't effect me directly. But it effects so many people I know either directly or indirectly. I know so many people who either are gay, transgender, bisexual, or have a son, daughter, niece, or nephew who is gay, transgender, or bisexual.

      This election was about love vs hate. Love lost.
      This election was about hope vs fear. Hope Lost.
      This election was about justice vs injustice. Justice lost.
      This election was about equality vs inequality. Equality lost.

      Now, I am a member of Catholics for Marriage Equality. It really sickens me to see the people on the Yes on One side celebrating the hardship and suffering that so many people I know will have to continue to endure. Nobody should find any reason to celebrate the pain, suffering, and institutional discrimination of others. I really do believe that these people are spiritually stunted, and that they are going to hell.

    • 3 years ago
  • DeliaTheArtist
    • 0
      DeliaTheArtist  

    • Very awesome breakdown of today's elections! Can't wait to see some pictures you post. I have no predictions but I'm interested to see what happens!

    • 3 years ago
  • FallenMorgan
  • current89
    • 0
      current89  
    • Image

    • Nate Silver, a political guru and statistician writes why Gubernatorial races are poor indicators of upcoming elections. The reason is due to ticket splitting.

      "Here is the problem with using the results from New Jersey or Virginia tonight to judge the status of the national political environment. It's not so much that the races are "meaningless" in the abstract, but that ticket-splitting is so common in gubernatorial races that the noise swamps the signal.

      Of the eleven states with a PVI of D+7 or bluer, five (Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island, California and Connecticut) currently have a Republican governor. Of the ten states with a PVI of R+10 or redder, meanwhile, four (Kentucky, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming) have a Republican governor. The correlation between gubernatorial elections and elections to the House, Senate and Presidency has been very weak, at least recently. In fact, if you compare the share of the vote that the Democratic candidate got in the most recent gubernatorial election in each state to the share that Barack Obama got last November, it is almost literally zero:"

      http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/gubernatorial-races-poor-yardstick.html

    • 3 years ago
  • JeremyTG77
    • 0
      JeremyTG77  

    • My prediction(s):

      A definite win for McDonnell, a narrow win for Hoffman, and the New Jersey race is still a tossup at this point.

    • 3 years ago
  • current89
    • 0
      current89  
    • Image

    • Above is a photo of Chris Christie (R) who is seeking to replace Gov. Corzine (D) of NJ. Christie worked under the Bush admin.

    • 3 years ago
  • ScorpioGee
    • 0
      ScorpioGee  
    • current89:

      Although I do consider myself as an Independent (with Democratic leaning) I do hope Christie does not win this election. He even said himself we wouldn't run for a 2nd term and I feel NJ does not need a governor who will use his Governorship as a platform for his own personal agenda and not for New Jersey's welfare. I do not want my state to be represented in the way of Sarah Palin and be left high and dry.

    • 3 years ago
  • pakazak
    • 0
      pakazak  

    • that NY 23rd is a riot.
      from what i see (in illinois - LOL) knowing what the candidates stand for is more important than party affiliation, so these state races are hard to take as an indication of what the nation thinks on a whole.
      have fun today

    • 3 years ago
  • asherp
    • 0
      asherp  

    • Where did you get the poll on the No on One? I just hear the other day that "NO" was actually polling four points behind, 47% to "Yes" at 51% I hope you're right.

      I don't think that untill we hit a clear lead, like 60% NO that we're safe.

      And with that in mind, I'm going to be out canvassing all day today.

    • 3 years ago
  • current89
  • asherp
  • Ihatethemall
  • current89
    • 0
      current89  

    • Please share your thoughts! Are there any elections important to you that aren't listed above? If so, advocate, tell us about them. Now get your asses out and go vote!

      I'm volunteering for the Corzine Campaign today, so i'll be in and out and should be posting pictures of what election day in NJ looks like!

    • 3 years ago
  • unclecharlie
more from Community:
from the community

top videos