Will Global Warming Alter Atlantic Ocean Currents--And Amplify Climate Change?
source: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=deep-water-ocean-currents-climate
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- JanforGore
- added this
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=deep-water-ocean-cur...
Every second, a vast quantity of cold, dense seawater equal to six times the combined flow of every land river on Earth streams over an ocean-floor ridge that stretches between Greenland and Scotland. This deep southbound current, flowing from the Norwegian, Iceland and Greenland seas into the North Atlantic, is the lower limb of the Gulf Stream and its northerly extension, a great conveyor belt of ocean heat and salt that transports warm tropical water north from the equator. Most climate change models predict global warming will slow these flows, in part by altering a key component of the Atlantic's circulation, called deep-water formation. If that happens, northern Europe will cool—or warm less severely—as the rest of the globe swelters.Understanding the role that deep-water formation plays in driving this grand circulation pattern, more formally called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will help scientists predict how global warming will affect climate—both in and beyond the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Atlantic's circulation patterns will alter African and Indian monsoon rainfall as well as hurricane patterns in the South Atlantic, resulting in "a profound impact on the global climate system," according to a team of international scientists asked by the U.S. government to evaluate the potential for abrupt climate change.
Oceanographers have been using moored acoustic Doppler current profilers and temperature sensors for the last decade to measure deep water as it pours over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge on its way south. They're both trying to establish the natural yearly and decadal variations in its creation as well as look for evidence of changes from human-generated temperature increases. "Our assumption is that when we are studying the exchange between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, that this deep conduction and cooling of ocean water is important to the AMOC," says Svein Østerhus, an oceanographer at the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research in Bergen, Norway, who has been investigating the flows.
Deep-water formation is just what it sounds like: As the Atlantic's surface waters travel north they become cooler and denser, so that by the time they reach the Arctic they are cold enough to sink to the ocean bottom. The sinking water pulls warm surface waters like the Gulf Stream north, which in turn leaves a void that pulls deep, colder water south. If global warming inhibits the formation of deep water, the flows across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge should slow.
But it's not that simple. Between the 1950s and the 1990s, the deep water in the Nordic Seas was both warmer and increasingly less salty. As a result, "we had quite remarkable changes in deep-water formation," Østerhus says. Nevertheless, the flow of deep water headed south over the Greenland–Scotland divide has remained stubbornly stable for the past 50 years, Østerhus and his colleagues reported a paper in Nature late last year. The reasons for these counterintuitive findings are not clear, he says. It may be that deep water is pooling behind the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, providing a reservoir from which older deep water can flow when production is slowed. Østerhus's colleague, Detlef Quadfasel, an oceanographer at the University of Hamburg, thinks that part of the explanation is that "this is a nonlinear system—it can simply jump from one state to another."
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"Deep-water formation in the Arctic and Antarctica are of equal importance, and they are linked," he says. "Deep water formed in the Arctic can be traced the whole way south to Antarctica and deep water formed in the Weddell Sea can be traced as far north as Ireland. A change in the Antarctic deep-water formation may have an impact on the circulation of the North Atlantic."
As Østerhus and his colleagues scramble to understand what's going on at the most distant edges of the Atlantic, roughly two dozen other projects are measuring the Atlantic’s flows elsewhere, including a string of instruments from the Bahamas to Morocco. And in late September an international team proposed that the entire network be transformed into a more formal international monitoring effort in the hopes of helping humankind prepare for what global warming will bring.
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- Community, Green, Current Tonight, Earth and Science, 5 more
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- Environment, Global Warming, Climate Science, jet stream, 1 more
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ras_menelik
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Yes it will. The tipping point!
- 3 years ago
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ras_menelik
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trut
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I just hope that the people in the heavily affected areas get wiped out quickly and they don't suffer too long.
- 3 years ago
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trut
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Pandastrike
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Jan you are very knowledgeable of the earth's climate process, and I do not deny it. You speak of the delicate balance of the ocean conveyor belt, the wind shear, and the surface temperature, and you also state your observations of the worldwide suffering attributed to global climate change. I do not dispute them. However, what I do not agree with is the notion that man is responsible for global warming.
Consider this:We are all well aware that the sun is the source that provides energy that enables sustained life on earth right? right. If the sun should one day cease to exist, the earth would no longer bask in it's warm rays, which means that it will fall into a dark and gloomy ice age, eradicating life on earth as we know it. From this example, it is clear that there is a correlation between the activity of the sun and temperature change.
More notably, a phenomena known as sunspots is believed to be the culprit. Basically, a sunspot results from intense magnetic activity on the sun. What does this have to do with the temperature you might ask? Well, this intense magnetic activity creates a sort of convection, which emits enormous amounts of solar radiation into the solar system, radiation that makes it's way to the earth as well as other planets.
An increase in sunspot activity means an increase in solar radiation being emitted by the sun, which results in an increase in temperature. A large portion of this information is support by Dr. Willie Soon, a Hardvard Astrophysicist. He claims that the sun has been dimmer in the past 18 months due to a decrease in sunspot activity. He also claims that this "dimming" will continue, due to the suns natural cycles. From this, it can be deducted that we are currently in a cooling trend. The warming trend ended 18months ago. Sorry :(
Earth isn't the only planet that is warming up, Mars, Pluto (not really a planet anymore) and etc are also heating up too. These planets, which are heating up as well, do not have inhabitants who are emitting Co2, which leads me to believe that humans are not the main source of this global warming/cool phenomena.
http://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/42006-harvard-astrophysicist-su...
Also, the amount of Co2 present today (385ppm stated by you) is minuscule compared to the record Co2 levels of 7000ppm during the Cambrian explosion which occurred some 530 million years ago. That's about 18times greater than it is today!!!! It was during this time that the rapid appearance of most complex animal groups occurred. The earth goes through natural cycles of temperature change. You didn't expect it to stay at one optimal temperature forever did you?
Lastly, the events you alluded to in your last point, which describe the consequences of climate change are indeed horrific, and I want nothing more then to prevent them as much as the individual, but differences aside, there is very little we can do to stop these things from occurring, for they are a result of the natural world.......NATURE
- 3 years ago
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Pandastrike
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jimmysemens [removed]
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irhroQ14Ufo
OMG we^re all gonna fry and die! Well when the earth warms, when the dog bites , when the bee stings, I think of my favourite things.
- 3 years ago
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jimmysemens [removed]
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jubal
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Exactly Jan, most people forget that the reason the Planet Venus is so hot is because of its extremely high levels of CO2. Venus was once green as Earth and had Water, too. But something happened there that filled the atmosphere with CO2 beyond the tipping point and it turned into a runaway system of trapped heat.
- 3 years ago
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jubal
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JanforGore
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It's sad to see people who don't understand simple science, what controls climate, and our role in exacerbating those Earth processes. Firstly, it is a scientific fact that CO2 is a heat trapping gas. You should have learned that in school. Secondly, CO2 emissions and temperature have both risen to bring our atmosphere to 385 PPM (that's parts per million, with 450 and above considered the "tipping point" for our climate balance) and that is not Al Gore making that up but scientists in peer reviewed journals WORLDWIDE stating facts. The world has also warmed 1 degree in the last century. That may not seem like much to those who do not understand the delicate ecosystems of this planet but it is something to be concerned about especially if we get to two degrees, which considering how our oceans are warming is a great possibility. Thirdly, you need to know what controls climate and how that is effected by what is now happening in the Arctic. Ocean currents control our climate. It is a vast network of deep currents that start in the Arctic and eventually work their way in a loop around the planet to Europe and Greenland. In a normal world colder dense water from the Arctic is pushed into the oceans and falls to the ocean floor. It then winds its way around to Europe where it pushes up warmer saltier water, thus keeping their temperature comfortable for human survival. However, should that colder dense water from the Arctic disappear ( as it is with rapid melting of glaciers and the sun's reflection making the water in the Arctic warmer not colder) there is no way for the warmer saltier tropical water to be pushed up at the end of it its journey and you therefore have a shutting down of what is known as the great ocean conveyor. Once that conveyor shuts down you could possibly have an ice age in Europe. And that would not be the only result of this shutting down as no oxygen or nutrients would flow to the ocean depths to feed phytoplankton which is the first link in our global food chain, and you would also see parts of this planet greatly affected by hotter temperatures as well.
Right now we are seeing record cold and snow in Europe (and just FYI, France also had a major heatwave in 2003 that killed 35,000 people) China, and other parts that are effected by these currents. Conversely, we are seeing record heat and drought in Australia, Africa, and other parts of the world. Global warming does not just concern what is going on outside your house. Many people globally are already suffering from the effects of global warming /climate change. The president of the Maldives as an example has entreated the world to please do something to decrease CO2 emissions that exacerbate the rapidity of these effects to keep his country from going under water. People who live in the Himalayas whose glaciers are melting more rapidly than scientific predictions are pleading for the world to see the reality of what is happening. People in India and Africa whose monsoons and seasonal rains are now failing due to erratic rainfall patterns (another result of climate change) do not have adequate water to grow food or live. This in part is being exacerbated by excessive amounts of CO2 and other greenhosue gases in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, and in large part from deforestation and industrial agriculture.
Look to our own California to see the harbinger of what has happened in Australia. Groundwater resources are being depleted faster than they can be replenished as it enters its third year of extreme drought. Do you understand what that means for humans who count on water and food to live? Do you understand that if Himalayan glaciers melt by 2030 as predicted billions of people will go without water? Do you understand the number of climate refugees that would bring and the possible scenarios that could play out from that? If you don't believe humans are contributing to or exacerbating this that's your problem. However, whether you believe that or not for whatever your own reasons may be, the fact is that this planet and the very ecosystems that sustain life are changing rapidly. And remember, summer is yet to hit here. What will you say then when temperatures soar to over a hundred degrees daily? It's just a fluke? Climate change is about more than weather. Surface temperatures combined with ocean temperatures, wind shear, ocean currents, and other forcings WORLDWIDE have determined that for the last 15 years we are in a warming trend.
Come out of the 15th Century already.
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
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jimmysemens [removed]
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JanforGore:
How do you sleep at night? Worrying about all these different parts of the globe that are no business of yours must be really stressful.
- 3 years ago
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jimmysemens [removed]
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JanforGore
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JanforGore:
In other words, 'that was just too much information for me to process.' And I sleep just fine knowing I am at least walking the walk for my talk.
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
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crob80227
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Ugh. I can't stand these idiots who keep saying "Man has NO IMPACT on the weather whatsoever!"
Will alge grew in a swimming pool if left untreated with chlorine? Yes
Will alge grow MORE RAPIDLY in an untreated swimming pool if I dump 50 pounds manure, grass clippings and other organic material? YES!
So....does the sun go through cycles that impact earth's climate? Yes.
Does dumping 500 metric tons of dust and particulates into the atmosphere EVERY DAY impact how much solar radiation is capture/reflected? YESSSSS!!!!
If we humans constructed a giant panel to block off 90 percent of the sun light/heat from reaching earth....would THAT have any impact on weather patterns? Uh...yeah!
If we humans created a giant panel to prevent heat from escaping back into space....would THAT have any impact on weather patterns? YESSSS!
So why is it so hard to grasp the concept that certain industrial particulates that block the sun or capture the sun's heat and prevent it from escaping into space might have an UNNATURAL impact on weather patterns?
I just don't get some of these guys.
Drinking a glass of water is natural.
Drinking a glass of water after I take a shit in it is not "natural" in any practical sense.
The industrial factories all over the world are taking a shit in the upper atmosphere and have been for decades and, no, that is not "natural" in any way.
- 3 years ago
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crob80227
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oppressed1
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Jan i just hope you live long enough to see this charade unfold into the lie it is.
- 3 years ago
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oppressed1
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Pandastrike
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Volume of ignorance? You obviously didn't notice, but what I have done is present my thoughts on the matter, and backed them with solid researched facts. I fail to see what you refer to as ignorance. "people with the real knowledge"?!?!?! "clear and present danger"?!?!?!? hahahahahahaha Anyone with any sort of formal education would realize that Co2 levels today are quite minuscule, and are nothing compared to the Co2 levels seen in the past. The cambrian explosion which took place 550 million years ago had Co2 levels that were about 18 times greater than today!!!!!!!!!!! 18 times greater!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 18 times higher than today."
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
The only "clear and present danger" I see is a group of self-righteous individuals who have taken it upon themselves to fight a problem that is none existent, and have ultimately done more harm then good. Were you aware that this whole global warming fiasco has killed millions in the 3rd world? Were you aware that the governments of the world, subsidized corn for the production of useless ethanol fuel, effectively lowering the world's food supply, which caused the world's food prices to rise nearly 60%!!!!!! in 2008!!!!!! People in the third world can NOT afford food, and are dying!!!
Do you not see that it is the SUN for christ sake! The sun, which is responsible for the continued life on this earth, appears to be none existent in the eyes of individuals such as yourself. It is always man. Man has nothing to do with global warming/Cooling. For the last time it is the sun. Studies have shown that there is a correlation between temperature change on earth and sunspot activity. The sun naturally goes through 11 year cycles of increased sunspot activity and decreased sunspot activity, which explain the brief periods of warming and cooling!
- 3 years ago
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Pandastrike
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jimmysemens [removed]
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Europe is freezing its ass off right now. Thank God for global warming, otherwise it would be much worse.
- 3 years ago
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jimmysemens [removed]
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JanforGore
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Wow, and they even come back under other names because they think volume of ignorance makes intelligence It's a lie... it's a scam... same old pull doll responses. I tell you what, you all put your heads back into the sand and let the people with the real knowledge handle this. This is a thread about a clear and present danger, not a chance for all of you to continue to squawk some BS political view.
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
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Bushido
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JanforGore:
Sit back and "let the people with knowledge handle this". Sounds a lot like tyranny to me. The criticisms of Global Warming are definitely legitimate and there are well-respected scientists who agree. If someone could sell Asteroid-be-gone and make a lot of money, they'd be talking about the inevitable impact of an asteroid in order to get us to buy it. It is a shame that you are too blinded by your idolatry of a second-rate politician to see the scare campaign for what it is.
- 3 years ago
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Bushido
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Pandastrike
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While I do believe that man has had an impact on the environment, I do not feel it is to the extent where the phenomena of "man-made global warming," would occur. I feel that the culprit behind all of this climate change is the sun, based on facts stated in the article/link provided below. Also a series of events have occurred quite recently that strengthen the notion that "man-made global warming" is a sham. Events such as the climategate scandal, where leading climate scientist were caught falsifying data, and the fact that the hockey stick graph exhibited in Al Gore's An Inconvient Truth has be proven false and misleading, due to the fact that it completely ignored periods of extreme temperture change in the earth's history, such as the Medieval warming period, and the little ice age. Lastly, doesn't it seem a bit odd to you all, that the individual who is the most gung ho about the green movement, Al Gore, stands to profit immensely it? Al Gore is heavily invested in companies that are involved in this carbon credit/cape and trade scheme. Just my 2 cents.
"Boston (MA) - Harvard astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon tells us that Earth has seen a reduced level of sunspot activity for the past 18 months, and is currently at the lowest levels seen in almost a century. Dr. Soon says "The sun is just slightly dimmer and has been for about the last 18 months. And that is because there are very few sunspots." He says when the sun has less sunspots, it gives off less energy, and the Earth tends to cool. He notes 2008 was a cold year for this very reason, and that 2009 may be cold for the same."
http://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/42006-harvard-astrophysicist-su...
- 3 years ago
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Pandastrike
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Bushido
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I consider myself liberal, educated, and have tried to keep on top of "Global Warming" data. I, however, believe that Global Warming, bluntly put, is a lie.
That is not to say that weather does not go through cycles according to the Sun's gravitational pull on Earth based on the Sun's own cycling. Earth has seen an ice age before and we'll no doubt see other wacky weather phenomena in the future. Yes, we should take care of our planet, but my concern is that the masses are being sold on the idea of Global Warming simply because of the vast sums of money that can be made by marketing "Green" products and through corporate cap and trade. It is no accident that Al Gore is not only an outspoken Global Warming boogeyman, but also one of its largest financial beneficiaries. He is, afterall, heavily invested in these "Green" companies that profit by our fear.
Calling Global Warming deniers uneducated wackjobs/Hannity-Limbaugh sheeple dismisses the thousands of free-thinking, educated people that have real concerns about what it is that they are being sold. In my eyes, calling what is happening with our weather by the name of Global Warming is the equivalent of our ancestors claiming God smote the cities of Sodom and Gamorrah. We have data, but due to our inability to fully understand it, the powerful among us found a way to package and sell their own agendas down our throats (much like religion).
Take a minute, chicken little, the sky ain't fallin'. Let us not give the fox the keys to the hen-house so quickly (and various other clear-minded analogies). Yes, the data is disconcerting, but sometimes, even in science, what you see isn't really what you are seeing.
- 3 years ago
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Bushido
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jubal
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That was a great video Jan, I tried to reply or recommend but Current tells me that feature is unavailable right now....go figure.
I see the usual obstructionists are at their work like beavers building a dam. HAHAHAHA Eventually the dam will give way to the pressure of the reality of the water. Will beavers ever learn? And I am not trying to give beavers a bad name here, but I thought the analogy was fitting.
Me I would rather be a duck because I can both fly and float, when the rising tide menaces.
- 3 years ago
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jubal
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Tyr
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Thank you Jan, I was scolded bu Lurkistan for making a "preemptive" remark that I knew would be coming from the likes of monte..how in the world this ever became a political football. left vs, right is beyond me. They remind me of my father back in 1963 when he believed that the scientific communities collective understanding and subsequent warnings of the carcenogenic nature of tobacco and the resulting cancers that would result from smoking were all just a bunch of liberal nonsense...my father died at the age of 60 from lung cancer. I'm afraid that his delusional rejection of science will have to devastate them before they can be brought to understand that it has nothing to do with liberal vs conservative but is the result of dumping millions of tons of garbage into the atmosphere...sigh.... I think it's futile to attempt to enlighten them. Just as it was for me with my father.
- 3 years ago
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Tyr
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02
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Tyr:
It's a political football because big polluters are taking the side that they don't want to be regulated. Their talk-show drill-sergeants keep spewing the schpeel.
- 3 years ago
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02
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Pajarito7
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THERES NOTHING WE CAN DO! Earth naturally goes through its ups and downs when it comes to weather. It turns into an ice age then goes back into the good ol sunny days. Looks like Mother Nature will continue to do what it has done for millions of years species will continue to just adapt to its change. The only thing we can do to help ourselves rather than earth is cut CO2 emissions. Its not Earth that's in danger, it is us that is in danger. Healthwise.
- 3 years ago
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Pajarito7
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JanforGore
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I wasn't even addressing you. This thread was not put here for the ignorant ones who refuse to see it. I have already deemed the lot of you hopeless.
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
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montesooma
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When i was 15, the so-called science was saying the world would be overpopulated and we would starv by 1980.
I bet some digging into the evidence and you will find that the ice is not melting at all -- it waxes and wanes. All of the ice that we supposedly lost has now reaccumulated since these fabulous claims --- ultimately causeing so-called scientists to email each other about how to falsify the data to keep the illusion alive
To call me a skeptic is an understatement. especially in light of the fact that there is a blizzard going on outside right now and we are in the midst of the longest cold spell of many decades. - 3 years ago
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montesooma
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jubal
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montesooma:
Your still 15.
- 3 years ago
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jubal
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oppressed1
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montesooma:
good one jubal.
plus get a new picture your dont look tough
- 3 years ago
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oppressed1
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JanforGore
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKUlWXWQxbs
With Arctic glaciers continuing to melt so rapidly, less cold water will be available to sink down to provide essential oxygen and nutrients to marinelife, and also move warmer tropical water to the surface which keeps the temperatures in Europe and Greenland at safe level for human survival. Should the glaciers melt completely the conveyor belt could shut down leading to the same scenario that played out in this video. This is truly something we must become serious about in regards to our contribution to this melting. The current extreme weather we are seeing in Europe regarding colder temperatures and the drought and hotter weather we are seeing in other parts of the world are directly effected by ocean currents as a result of melting glaciers. To say there is no global warming at this point with all of the evidence to the contrary is simply being blind to science and reality.
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
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life_4_rent [removed]
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Will global warming lead to an 'ice age'--http://www.awitness.org/column/global_warming_ice_age.html
http://www.topnflnews.com/ - 3 years ago
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life_4_rent [removed]
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montesooma
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There aint no global warming, suckers!
- 3 years ago
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montesooma
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jubal
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Global warming causes the climate change pendulum to swing more violently.
- 3 years ago
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jubal
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oppressed1
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You guys are right.
It definitely will get colder before it gets hotter. Thats makes complete sense.
- 3 years ago
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oppressed1
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24French
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Maybe we'll luck out, and the deep water will be beyond our meddling. Without the currents, it's stagnation and disaster. It's the scariest aspect of the entire climate debacle. Deep water forever.
- 3 years ago
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24French
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masterzip
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one thing I always repeat, "there is nothing normal about weather anymore" regardless of location, cold or hot, drought or deluge,.....the easiest way to come to this conclusion is turn on the TV news and they always interview some old codger who states, "i have lived here for over 30 odd years and never seen anything like this before."
- 3 years ago
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masterzip
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Lurkistan
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I have a feeling there are going to be some major surprises in the next 50 years when it comes to the climate. Hopefully these surprises won't be on the catastrophic level that they easily could be. Even if the climate turns out to magically regulate itself in some unforeseen manner we still need to make some serious changes as a species and start to value our natural world a lot more.
- 3 years ago
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Lurkistan
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Tyr
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Jan your educated views about this will be wasted on the Hannity / Limbaugh minions, their minds have been made up for them by the corporate shills on talk radio. You might as well try teaching algebra to a hamster.
- 3 years ago
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Tyr
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Lurkistan
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Tyr:
This kind of comment doesn't do anyone any good, its like a preemptive attack on future commenters or something. I understand that your angry at the uneducated masses this is good, but the comment you made sounds just like a comment that limbaugh/hannity would make see where I going with this?
- 3 years ago
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Lurkistan
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02
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Tyr:
It's the face slapping back.
- 3 years ago
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02
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pjacobs51
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I've read predictions the slowing of the Gulf Stream will also cool N. America too. Which judging by last years temps in the US, and now with record lows hitting the midwest, is following that pattern.
- 3 years ago
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pjacobs51
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JanforGore
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http://www.oceanmotion.org/html/impact/conveyor.htm
I wonder how many heads of state who went to Copenhagen even understand this and the possibilities it creates?
The science behind climate change/global warming is much more involved than just looking out your window to see if it snowed today. And this is where the disconnect remains. Once you understand the Earth's systems and the fact that it non linear, you truly do begin to understand the urgency behind taking action.
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
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JanforGore
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"Most climate change models predict global warming will slow these flows, in part by altering a key component of the Atlantic's circulation, called deep-water formation. If that happens, northern Europe will cool—or warm less severely—as the rest of the globe swelters"
Definitely sounds like the scenario unfolding now as we see Europe and much of Asia under a freeze, while Africa and Australia suffer from prolonged drought and warming temperatures. Is it possible that this deep water formation is now causing the jet stream to slow down?
- 3 years ago
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JanforGore
