AP: Chavez's 'Bolivarian Revolution' Badly Weakened

I think there are a few things that alarmed me though and reminded me of my native Cuba.

First, the power outages and the rapid decay of the electric grid. Power outages and blackouts are commonplace aspect of life in Havana. And it appears that the nationalization of much of the industry, the firing of professionals who knew how to operate it has also contributed to this, just as it did in Cuba.

Chavez has also created a double currency market in Venezuela, because he created a new currency called the Bolivar Fuerte which he set a high artificial price to... eventully he had to devalue it as well because it was not actully worth that much. SImilarly, in Cuba we also had a double currency, in which the people are paid in worthless Cuban pesos and everything is sold in Convertible Pesos which are worth much more. A black market for dollars has already sprung up in Venezuela just as it did in Cuba when the Convertible Peso was introduced...

The state imposed economic controls and the widespread nationliztion of many industries has scared away investors from Venezuela who are scared that property rights are not respected. Consequently, investment dropped, as the article mentioned, by 7.6 percent.

And lastly, how can you say that devaluation is a good thing? The people most hurt by devaluation are the poor working classes who have their earnings reduced everytime the currency loses value. The inflation rate of 25-27% has destroyed savings.

While this might increase exports, it would certainly serve to defeat the purpose of Chavez' revolution which is to erase inequality. How is he going to justify working for equality when devaluation is only going to serve the businesses which have the capital to be exporting in the first place? That would actually increase inequality...

As to crime in Venezuela, it would be misleading to cite the numbers you provided as the police no longer provide complete murder statistics, without including other statistics such as theft, robbery, or kidnappings.

I would not go so far as to say that Chavez is a dictator, but he certainly is a classic caudillo.

The current power outages are due to the drought, and venezuela does need to educate young professionals to be able to expand infrastructure and electicity output.

The devaluation was being called for by the opposition prior to it happening, and then of course was criticized by them afterwards. I don't think the dual currency was a good idea, but I don't know much of the arguments for or against it.

Overall the devaluation however was completely necessary. It does hurt consumption of imports in the sense that a 50% devaluation doubles the cost of imports. This however halves the cost of Venezuelan exports, and the overvalued exchange rate (again due to oil) was causing all exports outside of oil to become incredibly expensive.

Developing countries that have been effective in developing in recent years have done so with low valued currencies as is the case for most Asian economies. When China moved from internal economy to an export oriented economy it in 1970 devalued it's exchange from 1:1 with the us to 8.8 to I us dollars. This made it's exports cheap and helped fuel it's growth. Similar devaluations happened in Argentina but also in Brazil which helped them begin to grow again.

Again the devaluation is the most important decision Chavez has made, aside taking over the oil industry. B/c he took over the oil industry and socialized the profits their is decent social services that can soften the unfortunate but necessary social costs of devaluing the currency.

I worry as well that Chavez often to aggressively takes on private industries, which at times are real problems, but doesn't have the capacity to replace them. Developing countries often need a fairly large role for the state (in fact I think developed countries are much better off under the northern european model as well) but they do not have the capacity to properly micromanage everything. None the less I believe Venezuela should be left alone to make those decisions, and despite his faults Chavez is better than those that preceded him.

Thanks for the info and input... Your a good guy to have in discussions. I don't agree with everything, but I do agree he is going after the private sector too aggressively.

Your numbers are not accurate.

The Venezuelan Dividsion of Statistics, part of the CICPC, drastically contradict your erroneous (if not propagandistic) information. Venezuela has become about the third most dangerous country to visit.

You will note, that in the years before Chavez took power (1998/99) there was an increase in murders, so that the # of homocides per 100,000 went from 19 in 1997 to 37 in 2005 and has continued to climb over the past 5 years.

Año Nº Homicidios Venezuela Tasa Nº Homicidios Caracas Tasa
1997 4,225 19 1,465 64
1998 4,550 20 1,436 63
1999 5,968 25 1,859 94
2000 8,022 33 2,310 117
2001 7,960 35 1,884 103
2002 9,617 42 2,436 133
2003 11,342 49 2,461 134
2004 9,719 42 1,871 102
2005 9,964 37 1,826 88

Incorrect again, Peter.

Uribe got his presidential terms extended through constitutional means, primarily because he such a popular president congress and senate were willing to amen the constitution and it was approved through perfectly legal means. He's popular because he has saved the country from the Marxist FARC terrorist bastards that Chavez adores, supports and defends.

Your socialist explanations for everything are totally wanting. "neoliberalism" in Colombia...what a crock. Everything is collapsing in Venezuela, the infrastructure is falling apart, crime has exploded, corruption is rampant, the democracy is mortally wounded and there is no way you could claim it is still a democracy if you had spent any time there and witnessed what is done to anyone who opposes the government.

Yes, there is a drought. No, that is not an excuse. For many years they have been insisting on renovating and improving the electric infrastructure.
"like most developing countries they do not have the resources to have all these things backed up" Bullshit. Chavez has spent tens of billions of $ on weapons systems they don't need, and has instead given away billions of $ to win allies throughout Latin America. There are highways collapsing for the same reason.

Even all those "community clinics" are woefully out of medicine and they are closing down.

This in a country on which it is raining petroleum, with one of the largest reserves in teh world...so...why can't they get it out of the ground? Incompetence and corruption.

"they are an alleged enemy of the US, and there is no cross comparisons b/w Venezuela and the problems of the US supported regimes and no mention of our role in the problem." They were our ally. CHAVEZ made them our enemy. We played no role in that, pal, it was his political ploy to immitate the Castro model.

Actually, Peter, you don't know what you're talking about. Your understanding of what constitutes a democracy is feeble and infantile. You seem to be one of those people who simply thinks that if there is an election it is therefore democratic. I suspect that was NOT your assessment of the 2000 elections in Florida, so perhaps you only apply that standard to leftist government.

Anyway, what do you know of Venezuela? I have family there, I've spent a lot of timethere, and i was an independent international elections observer during the presidential recall referendum. Google Curtis Reed, Venezuela recall referendum and you'll find references to our work and our report to congress and senate.

First of all, the Carter Center is recognized as a Fubar organization. Or did you not know that they had first certified the Fujimori election results and ignored calls to investigate fraud, until the evidence became overwhelming and they were forced to recant and then declare that fraud had been committed?

I am likewise convinced that they have screwed the pooch on this one too.

I'll attach a few details of what we witness in the next post.

a.. In the days leading up to the election, President Chavez had warned that with the Finger Print machines and the Smartmatic machines, he would know who voted against him. This was a threat, intended to intimidate the opposition. Remember that during the Referendum signature drive, voters who were government employees and who signed against the government were fired en masse.
b.. The CNE’s Junta Nacional Electoral President, Jorge Rodriguez, made comments to the public about the norms and processes while flanked by military Generals, another tactic apparently designed to intimidate the opposition by demonstrating that he had been given control of the military.
c.. The government ordered the police to remain in their barracks, leaving the people unprotected. In the opposition areas, the Chavistas operated with impunity, riding around threatening the people with arms, and in some cases firing on them. Meanwhile, in the "popular" sectors of town, the police were out of their barracks, apparently to help the government control the vote.
d.. We were threatened on several occasions, at least once with pistols concealed under the shirts of Chavistas who yelled threats and showed us their weapons.
e.. When we went into the 23 de Enero barrio, Chavistas working in the voting area turned into rabble-rousers and tried to stir the crowd into attacking us. The Plan RepÚblica troops did nothing to stop them, and when our safety was in question, they escorted us out. We could no longer observe the many irregularities in the area.
f.. We videotaped the damages to the home of the Primero Justicia coordinator, whose house was machine-gunned at around 3:00 AM of the morning of the Referendum. We witnessed that the government summarily fired thousands of poll workers previously accredited by the CNE, simply because they had signed the referendum against the president. In their place, the CNE actively hired pro-government workers that they called directly (in violation of the CNE's own election norms that stated that they had to be selected by "sorteo", or random drawing), and they brought in workers from other districts to work in the mostly opposition areas, and other clear violation of the norms.

g.. We saw that the Comando Maisanta had obtained illegal “Security” badges and had illegally set up cordons and were blocking the entrance to the voting centers to members of the opposition (in the mostly Chavista centers, such as Catia).
h.. We received first hand reports from witnesses who saw armed Comando Maisanta and Circulos Bolivarianos posted outside voting centers, threatening the people who tried to vote SI.
i.. We witnessed military officers prohibiting the vote of people in the opposition areas because they were "wearing shorts", a violation of the constitution and their human rights.
j.. Thousands of voters who voted SI were physically assaulted at the voting centers.
k.. We were informed by an elderly woman that when she asked for assistance voting in a mostly Chavista area, a CNE voting officer asked her: “You need help voting?” then pushed the NO button for her and said: “There.”
l.. Armed pro-government “terrorists” of the Bolivarian Circles led by Lina Ron invaded a voting center in Avenida Urdaneta, of the Libertador Municipality in Caracas, and only allowed government supporters to vote. These terrorists fired their guns at the opposition that tried to vote.
m.. We saw that the military controlled the flow of people into the voting areas and slowed down the progress until we arrived. Witnesses heard them radio to their comrades that "International Observers have arrived. Speed up the flow." They then gave orders to change the flow of voters from 5 or so every 10 minutes, to groups of 30.
n.. Voting centers (in opposition areas) that normally had up to 9 tables were reduced to only 3 tables.
o.. The CNE dictated norms detailing the anticipated behavior of CNE employees in general and in certain possible contingencies, such as machine malfunction (by both the Smartmatic SAES machines and the Finger Print machines).

a.. CNE workers refused to follow the CNE changes to the norms to either stop using the Finger Print machines when they malfunctioned, or, when it was determined that the machines were becoming a bottle-neck to the process, the CNE ordered that they be used as a final process or stopped, but the CNE employees adept to the government refused to obey the orders.
b.. Sixty CNE workers who were required to run the Finger Print Hunting machines (Caza Huellas) failed to report to duty on time, in violation of the CNE norms. This caused great delays in the voting process.
c.. Other CNE workers refused to open the voting centers on time, causing delays of up to three or four hours.
d.. CNE workers friendly to the government closed the polls at the wrong times, ignoring the Norms created by the CNE.
e.. Many voters who provided their fingerprints were told that they had already voted and could not vote. Some of these voters were arrested.
A Chavista table witness told us that she had personally told an elderly woman (in her seventies) whose fingerprint was rejected that she could not vote because she had already voted and accused her of trying to commit fraud. When we asked her if she knew that the machines had a margin of error and that the poor woman might have been wrongly accused of fraud, she told us she had not been told of that.
p.. We used stopwatches to time the flow of voters. In predominantly Chavista areas, we saw that the flow was rapid (roughly 1.5 to 2 minutes per voter). In areas that were predominantly opposition, the voting rate was much slower (between 5 and 10 minutes per voter).
q.. International Observers were blocked from entering some voting centers.
r.. In some voting centers, the review process was started without the presence of Opposition witnesses to guarantee transparency.
s.. Opposition witnesses and table members were physically removed from voting centers or blocked from entering and guaranteeing transparency.
t.. In the months leading up to the Referendum, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of foreigners were given citizenship and immediate voting rights in massive ceremonies that literally filled stadiums, in violation of the immigration laws. These expeditiously nationalized people were allowed to vote in the referendum.
u.. In the days leading up to the vote, the CNE workers migrated voters out of their home districts and into districts many miles from their residences, sometimes into other countries. A pattern was discovered indicating that many voters were migrated from mostly Opposition areas into areas filled with government supporters. These areas are lawless and extremely dangerous, and many voters chose not to vote rather than risk their lives.
v.. When pro-government voters did not appear on the voting lists, in many cases they were immediately provided with a solution at that center and allowed to vote. Contrarily, opposition voters who were not on the lists were told they simply could not vote.
w.. Pro-government representatives paid money to voters who indicated that they had voted NO.
x.. We received denunciations that the military members who wanted to vote had to do so with their superior officers watching their selection.
y.. After the tabulation of the votes, citizens from many centers are reporting that the Voter Verifiable Paper Trail tickets printed by the machines have been found dumped in the streets.
z.. The CNE workers in charge of safeguarding the materials failed to complete their duties after the end of the referendum, since reports have flooded in that indicate that the Voter Verifiable Paper tickets were found dumped in the streets of some barrios.

sorry, but that is absolutely sad and pathetic. Chavez has NOT done what is necessary for his country. He has purposely done everything he can to destroy the private sector, appropriate private farms, destroy unions that opposed him, and it has severely damaged the economy.

I don't know what you're smokin' up there in Canada, but it sure doesn't help you comprehend the calamity unfolding in Venezuela