China’s hawks demand cold war on the US

But Obama can't see Russia from his house

What promises, exactly?

i agreed completely with your first paragraph.. then you went off the deep end buddy. the economy and well-being of your people is your power. China has never been confused about how to achieve that. china's actions to protect their economy is partly game theory and partly what they believe is policies designed for improving economic growth. for you to believe obama, as one man, is going to strong-arm china into changing the track they've pursued over the last 30 years isn't smart. take into consideration china is still a developing country and then you might realize that concessions we grant to them are concessions that lead to progress and growth for all developing countries. you can take back your warlord. i'll take the superiorly intelligent peacekeeper.

+^d

I wouldn't suggest that China adopt democracy but it's not a lot to ask that a government should not kill, torture and imprison it's own citizens for criticizing government policy.

Katmai, if the Chinese government's priority is to feed, clothe, and shelter the people, how do you explain the rural and urban poverty, people being kicked off their land?

You should read about how the government handles AIDs, it's very sad.

China deserves a lot of credit for the advancements it's made in the past 60 years, the past 30 years, but that doesn't mean the Chinese government is some great force for the welfare of the people; they're just trying to keep order.

DrudeBoy, because you don't understand Chinese mentality -- they are willing to sacrifice PARTS to save the WHOLE. Read some of their ancient literature or strategy texts and it's all there. Good place to start would be Romance of the Three Kingdoms.

Even though China's made a lot of progress, she's still got a long way to go. What did you expect -- everyone suddenly owned a car after only 20 years of growth?

And as you said, the government's there to keep order -- a very Confucian philosophy of Harmony. The government's just doing their best to keep the MAJORITY from having adverse reaction to the government. All governments do this, albeit with different levers of control.

We shouldn't lump a country of more than a billion people into one collective mentality, I'm well aware Confucian culture places a great value on harmony, but that doesn't excuse government officials from lining their pockets on the backs of those (especially the rural poor) who fought and died for the PRC in the first place. There's a big difference between not everybody having an automobile and people losing their livelihoods due to local officials' greed.

The right to speak one's mind and criticize the government for committing gross injustices isn't a Western value, it's a universal right.

Much like some politicians in the US lining their pockets through pork too. Or war. As you said, we ought not to lump everything into one collective mentality and we can get examples on both sides of the argument on this. Yes, I understand some CCP bureaucrats lined their pockets through some shady deals, but the CCP dammed the 3 gorges and displaced people -- all for the sake of the greater good.

Yes, I do admit that some may feel wronged but it all depends on the priority of the leadership. As in the case of the 3 gorges development, angry peasants will just have to be looked over for the greater good; as in the case of the wronged rural poor whose lands were stolen, they can report the bureaucrat and hope for justice.

China has always had an ancient protest system wherein the aggrieved can march to the imperial palace to file a protest. Nowadays, I believe it's the same (but more high tech) although the party is beginning to be more strict compared to the imperial system. Some heads already DID roll (literally), as this former State Food and Drug Admin did (1).

The beauty of democracy is that it's supposed to render violent revolutions obsolete by simply voting away the old party and putting in new leadership. In China where leadership was an entitlement during the imperial days, that wasn't an option so revolution was the only choice. If injustices were severe, violence almost certainly erupted. The Republican system is a new system for China and I'm interested how this would come out.

I still stand by my conviction that Freedom of Speech is a Western value -- in Asian cultures, to speak your mind freely would be politically disadvantageous.

1 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6286698.stm

I agree with almost everything you said; especially the necessity of the Revolution, but I don't think the Chinese government gets a free pass on human rights issues on culture...

As for freedom of speech, think the Democracy Wall or Tienanmen Square

Compared to whom?

If the US government is a teenager, the Chinese government is an infant.

Okay, does this make it superior? How about the rampant and unrelenting sexism associated with Confucian values? Pre-revolution Chinese culture, particularly agrarian Confucian culture, was one of the reasons the country was technologically surpassed and eventually divided by the West.

Americans have their own cultures, not necessarily American cultures, but cultures brought from the lands from where their ancestors immigrated.

China has a written history of more than 8,000 years, numb-nuts

Like the tone of your response. Let's see; China, my daughter studied China for 4 months preparing for an academic decathlon. She hated every minute of the study, and did comment frequently on the Chinese were losers and she was especially verbal (ranting I believe) on their apparent occasional habit of eating unwanted babies..(waste not, want not). Now that's culture. But then she is the child who looked for a rock when a car drove by her and her mentally ill (and s/w disheveled) mother one day and the Afro-American young ladies inside where hurling invectives at her mother. Ah, just good old harmless fun American ghetto etiquette. More children of God. One more nail in our collective coffin.

I've never said any of those things or even eluded to them, I'm quite critical of the United States and its government.

You can still put words in my mouth in place of a coherent argument, it is, after all,a free country.

Did I deny this?

Read my post, see where I say "Chinese government"

i know i'm late to the party, but your analysis and graph have something to do with published works regarding "the reversal of fortune". look up Rodrik's "reversal of fortune".

This is probably one of the must foolish things I've read all day

Fortune cookies are an American invention. FYI.

I think we and the Chinese could have a lot to gain working together. Since the U.S. has encouraged the opening up of China, living standards and human rights have improved. It wasn't really corporate America sending them jobs, it's just the way business works. China has this huge workforce and a lower cost of living, why wouldn't corporations look oversees to produce their goods?

Either way, our economies are far too interdependent for either party to want to seriously damage the other.

I don't disagree, though an education is now all but unattainable unless you are born rich. And as you said, the public school system is in disarray....by design, I'd add.

The flip side to China's managed exchange rate regime is that we too have technically been managing ours. Only the U.S. has the privilege to print as much currency as we'd like (of course to an extent) to stimulate our economy without fears of huge inflation. Any other country to print like we have would be down in the dumps. China's argument is that until we cease our semi-controlled depreciation by printing for domestic stimulus, then they have no reason to stop their over-valued currency. Of course, they only took that stance recently and don't discuss the past decades of managed exchange rate. I'm hoping that they'll have to heed to their latest argument - when our economy is back up and growing, they'll stop their management.

Agreed, we have been manipulating our currency, but as you said only now that our economy is (or was) flattering have they brought up the issue. All in all both nations need to change their practices of currency manipulation.

not to mention our universities. take a look at the online dissertations for any university and count the number of Chinese students over here getting a free education on the American taxpayer's dollar, and don't kid yourself, we are completely financing their graduate degrees. Take a look at how outnumbered the average American's child is in the science fields, in their own univeristies. Our tax dollars are paying for Chinese educations, and the Chinese are not stupid. Chinese students are coached on how to get into American universities with fellowships and assistantships that are paid for with American tax dollars.

Talk about being sold out. How about we retaliate by sending all their students home and letting China educate their own, then maybe we could afford to pay a little more attention to our children's needs, but hell no, we are too busy paying homage to the god of multiculturalism to notice that we have pulled the Trojan horse within the gates.

Banning trade with China would tank the US economy; we're completely interdependent, well, maybe not completely; but no sensible leader in either country would break our strong economic ties.

A country's priority is in feeding, clothing and sheltering her population first. Please don't confuse Human Rights with Freedom of Speech and Democracy -- these are purely Western values. And Slave labor? Have you ever BEEN to China?

Let me tell you this: my grandfather's from a little town just about 3 hours away from Xiamen in Fujian. He left when the Chinese revolution started and had live in the Philippines since. He hates Mao Zedong.

I visited with him (the first time he went back to China after the war) around the early 90s and I can remember our original hometown looking bleak and smelly. There was only 1 (yes, ONE) Western style toilet seat in the entire village which I got to use just once. It was a very agrarian society and electricity wasn't even guaranteed at night. There was barely any buildings

Fast forward to just 3 years and my dad went back with my grandfather and he couldn't even relate to what I was telling him -- buildings were being built all around, etc. And when I got married last 2008, I saw one of my uncles from China visit the Philippines -- and the guy was LOADED with cash. I can remember him more than a decade back and he was wearing a simple shirt and his family house was this ancient house. He was then telling us how their family's got a new home; how his kids are now working for a big company and all that good stuff.

The U.S has been teaching the world to adapt Capitalism and to learn how to compete and it's been devastating to some industries while the U.S. enjoyed her preeminence on those industries. Now that the world's finally learning how to compete and play competitive advantages, the U.S. is now crying foul play?

On high U.S. wages, how come Germany and Japan can still compete amidst some of the world's highest wages? On currency manipulation, isn't the U.S. equally guilty of it too?

Self reliance baby. F the entrepreneurs, get your own shit together; we need to get back in touch with the "Hey,....I can make that myself" element of life.If someone else is "feeding you, clothing you, making everything that makes "You" work----THAT is the fundamental substrate of your problems and weakness, and your dignity and self worth has been mortgaged to the devil to begin with.
Better to live free briefly, than hang on to dregs and count on bought men to sustain you.

Agreed, but the rest of the country can't be bothered with do it yourself projects. My family loves me, and they still think I'm a total nutcase/annoying know it all when I try to tell them about all of the things they can do for themselves. As for me? I want a nice cave in which I can self sufficiently live out my days, but I can't have everything and that is probably what causes people to think I'm unstable. *sigh*

While I understand the tendency to credit China with awsome power and competence given their strong growth, it is also easy to go way overboard in that regard. Two thirds of their people continue to live in conditions that would equate to abject poverty in the U.S.

While we in the U.S. unquestionably continue to do great harm to our environment, we are rank amateurs compared to the destruction being wrought by the Chinese government. Their shoddy construction standards (or lack thereof) exponentially compounded the deaths in their recent earthquake.

And while we have a great deal of corruption in our federal, state and local governments, again, it pales in comparison to the corruption and open bribery of officials at all levels of the Chinese government.

All of this ignores the fact, of course, that they operate a totalitarian police state where people who say the kinds of things I am typing right now tend to disappear and are never seen again.

Finally, China does not "own" the U.S. It holds less than $800 billion of our national debt, while our ANNUAL gross domestic product is $15 TRILLION.

Even if their current growth rate continues (unlikely, given that many of their industries are operating at unsustainable rates of excess, unsold and unsellable output), it will be decades before their economy would be as large as ours...and their national wealth would still be spread over at least three times as many people.

Agreed. If you owe $10,000 to the bank, the bank owns you. If you owe $100,000 to the bank, you own the bank.

Are you trying to prove their superiority with your bad grammar alexandrek?

Well whose to say when a decision should be made? Is it when we've collected enough information on the subject? If so, then how do we know that the info is enough? Does the information itself tell us we know enough or do we just have to make a choice because we've become bored with researching? Do we decide because we're out of time and we've reached some deadline? Because we have a strong feeling in our gut? Because we read the answer on a turtle shell, or some tea leaves? I personally know that I use a combination of these options (minus fortune telling), I can't answer for the rest of America, I'm not a mind reader, but if I had to guess then I would say yes, Americans think before they choose, because what other choice is there? I for one cannot live without thinking.
I can understand how you may believe that their thought processes may be different. I don't know much about Chinese history, or language, but I do know some things about the possible causes for these differences because of my studies in Eastern religions and our inability to translate them properly. When there are words that are both nouns and verbs (like fist, correct?) among other things, I'm sure it makes it harder for us to understand each other.
But I'm afraid I don't understand you. You say it's not about superiority after saying "They smarter than us, they think before acting, they buy instead of invading, they never start anything without a long term strategy, we have a lot to learn from them!"
Like Americans haven't got a concern beyond today. Maybe you've been in China so long you've forgotten what condescension sounds like to us primitive non-thinkers over here in the western hemisphere!

I'd like to see them try to move in. Can anyone say "tiger pit"?

No, China does not "own" the USA...nor do you provide any evidence whatsoever to support that assertion. China does not even own a majority of our debt. They hold 23% of the value our outstanding treasury notes -- i.e., less than a fourth. In just one year, the U.S. produces 20 times as much value in goods and services as the value of our debt to the Chinese.

Had we chosen to do so, we could have paid off our entire debt to China with the amount spend on the stimulus package. That would have been a really stupid thing to do because it would have done almost nothing to stimulate economic activity, and we still would have been left with the 77% of our debt that we owe to OTHER countries, but that gives you a sense of the kind of money we are talking about -- not chickent feed by any means, but not exactly looming disaster, either.

I don't know how old you are, but 25 years or so ago, people were running around saying that the JAPANESE owned the U.S. Despite its economic woes Japan STILL has the third largest economy in the world, close behind China's. But nobody is asserting that Japan owns us anymore.

I agree with you for the most part, but I'm somewhat hopeful about a new globalized generation and conflicts within the Party. People can air their grievances with the government, they can protest if their factory is closed down, for example, it's only when a protest takes a political turn that a Party official will make an appointment with you and tell you to cool it.

One of my professors wrote a book on China's current State which was originally printed by the Communist Party Press; after three to six months it was banned, but the fact that is was printed by the Party and then banned illustrates conflicts within the Party over speech rights and criticism of the government.

My word is only worth so much, though. I'm sure you know more on the subject that I do.

Make that, owe 100,000 , (no hope),............. and 1,000,000 ( If your really really close to making it, they will cut you some slack,...for a bit). and you come close to some truth.
---closer to the bar----
1,000,000 (still owned, some slack given),....and 10,000,000 ( not owner,....but enough in the game that they will work with you),... and I don't disagree.

Banks are Big. Even small banks.

China has other options to expand it's empire such as proxy wars.
It's been profitable for America for the past fifty years. Ask anyone in South America.
I suspect making crap for American consumers is viewed by China as just a stepping stone and, since America is permanently unemployed, a temporary one at that.

And, yeah, the US and China have a *very* strange relationship. Last I checked, it's a Communist totalitarian police state that offers capitalism for high-level party apparatchiks and other party elites. Its military is incredibly wealthy, holding vast properties throughout the world much like the Republican Guard in Iran and the ISI.

Interesting how the right is never heard demonizing China as though they are swell guys all around. Same can be said of Saudi Arabia, the extremist Wahhabi theocracy.

In the case of America, I suppose state-sponsored corporate terrorists Blackwater would be the closest comparable model in terms of military readiness combined with vast wealth.

With all due respect, Sleep, China makes a great deal more than just "crap" for American consumers. Further, while we are unquestionably struggling with an unacceptably high rate of unemployment at 10%, the flip side of that number is that 90% ARE still employed...so "America" is far from being unemployed. Several of the European Union's largest and "healthiest" economies would consider 10% unemployment to be a significant IMPROVEMENT to their normal rates.

We continue to purchase staggering amounts of Chinese goods, and the closing of our markets to Chinese industry would not just end their strong growth; it would plunge their country into a Great Depression that would make the U.S. during the 1930s look like a walk in the park.

Well in the UK the unemployment rate is 7.8% (though that is thought to have decreased), Germany has 7.7%, Italy it is 8.5% and France is 10%. They are definitely the largest economies in the EU, so can you tell me how 10% would be an improvement for most of them?

And then the next largest is the Netherlands...with 5%. Even overall the EU has an unemployment rate of 8.9%, and a larger GDP than the US. A more even Lorenz curve also. No offence, but I like our economy a bit better than the United States' one.

+^d

sadly true...and I remember taking my first economics class and coming away wondering why the success of our systems is predicated upon consumption, the more you consume, the healthier the system remains...it just doesn't seem to pan out well in the long run.

+^d

you must not have been paying attention in econ.

economic growth is driven by innovation.

OrbViper,

I understand your point -- though I am not sure what you mean by saying that you like "our" economy better than that of the U.S. I would disagree rather strongly that the E.U. has, in and of itself, an economy. Germany has an economy, as do France, the UK, Spain, Italy, etc...but I just don't think the EU is sufficiently closely knit just yet to be speaking of it as having an economy. Many (most? all?) of those countries would knife each other in the back in a heartbeat to protect a critical company or industry in their country (and have already done so, as you know).

As to unemployment, I didn't say (or mean to imply) that the current U.S. unemployment rate is better than the current unemployment rate in every major economy in the EU. I said that 10% would be considered an improvement to their NORMAL rates. I don't believe the current rates in many of those countries would be considered "normal" if you looked at historical data.

For example, in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unemployment was at or above 10% from 2000 to 2006, when it stood at nearly 12%.

In Spain, unemployment was 16% in 2000, remained above 11% through 2004 and now stands at 14%.

In France, unemployment from 1984 to 2000 was rarely below 10% (and often above 12%) and never dropped below 9%.

In Italy, unemployment was at or above 10% from 1993 to 2000.

In Greece, unemployment was at or above 10% from 2000 through 2006.

As to the future, an enormous demographic problem currently faces the western European economies as a result of two factors: 1) that more people will die each year than will be born in most western European countries beginning this year (it began in 2005 in Germany), and 2) the proportion of people over 65 is already skyrocketing, meaning that the proportion of working-age western Europeans compared to the population as a whole is plummeting.

While I don't buy into the predictions of "Demographic Armageddon" being tossed around by some analysts, there is little question that these trends are going to put enormous pressure on those economies. The U.S. is by no means immune to these same trends, of course. But the predictions on this side of the pond are certainly much less dire than those on your side.

On the whole, I would still rather be in the U.S. Historically, I think that our economy has proven to be more resilient...but I would agree that the EU is performing well at this moment in time, and I hope it continues to do so. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Well hopefully any problem in demographics could be seen to with immigration...though I'm sure that some people would be very adverse to it. I think that the ageing problem isn't really a problem as such, just wish more countries would reach that point, or at least some level off point. The world's pretty full, don't think the resources can cope with any more. I'm still more supportive of the European economies however, though I guess that's just down to what you want to work like within an economy. While the US does look like it has a GDP per capita, the system is a lot less distributive, and the mean GDP per capita is no where near the median GDP per capita. And US workers work an extra 30%, and while that is counted in the GDP the cost of the free time is not accounted for. Things just seem more relaxed, and I would say that the US economy is more stable than all of the economies in Europe, especially Germany and France are looking quite well from the credit crunch. Greece on the other hand...well, not so well...

You're right, it is pretty hard to characterise the EU as one big market, when it obviously isn't. Has quite a few layers to it, and fundamentally they are separate states. I guess what you prefer also comes down to your political opinion. Saying that, the UK is more similar to the US in many respects than some of its European friends...I guess we'll all just see what comes out well in a years time.

Sorry, just realised my post is a bit all over the place, I left and came back to it...so if it doesn't make much sense, don't worry.

Here's some stats from another China discussion at http://current.com/items/92051413_2010-already-a-bad-year-for-china-and-the-us.h...

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES AS OF NOV 2009:
(in billions of dollars)

1. China, Mainland 789.6
2. Japan 757.3
3. United Kingdom (a) 277.5
4. Oil Exporters (b) 187.7
5. Carib Bnkng Ctrs (c) 179.8
6. Brazil 157.1
7. Hong Kong 146.2
8. Russia 128.1
9. Luxembourg 91.7
10. Taiwan 78.4

**** China with HK collectively holds 935.8 Billion dollars in treasuries as of Nov 2009.

From: http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

From CIA Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html):

China unemployment: 4.3% (September 2009 est.)
Export partners:
US 17.7%, Hong Kong 13.3%, Japan 8.1%, South Korea 5.2%, Germany 4.1%
Imports - partners: Japan 13.3%, South Korea 9.9%, US 7.2%, Germany 4.9% (2008)

China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) have just put into effect a FTZ (Free Trade Zone) covering nearly 1.9 BILLION people. Although the reception was lukewarm, the fact that it's already in place means that should China-US/EU relationship somehow sour, China immediately has an open market to play with. And even better -- ASEAN's a mostly developing bloc and is still growing.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15211682
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/SME+Central/Story/A1Story20100107-190265.ht...

So you are saying you have freedom of speech rights and freedom of religion, freedom to assemble for a peaceful protest against the gov't.?

Correct me if I am wrong.

Hard to say but could be. I know US neocons are war-gaming China and have been for some time.
As for the Times, they are not state-run; I wish they were. Its a Rupert Murdoch property.

The Times is a daily national newspaper published in the United Kingdom since 1785 when it was known as The Daily Universal Register.

**The Times and its sister paper The Sunday Times are published by Times Newspapers Limited, a subsidiary of News International. News International is entirely owned by the News Corporation group, headed by Rupert Murdoch. Though traditionally a moderately centre-right newspaper and a supporter of the Conservatives, it supported the Labour Party in the 2001 and 2005 general elections.[2] In 2005, according to MORI, the voting intentions of its readership were 40% for the Conservative Party, 29% for the Liberal Democrats, 26% for Labour.

Some will.

How so? Please explain with respect to this one in particular.
I see no such thing.

Similar to your skill as a writer and grammarian, perhaps.

WTF are you talking about?

Perhaps you need a little educatin'. I assume you missed out on that luxury not always afforded to unfortunate children of red states from families that are of less than baronial stature.

2005-China in America's cross-hairs: Robert D. Kaplan and neocon hawks clamor for new Cold War

This did not crop up since January 20, 2009, much like the economic crisis. Sure, it's convenient and gratifying to blame it on the incumbent but, foreign policy crises don't crop up overnight and this one is no different. Under the smokescreen of the debacle in the middle east there have been a few other activities by the neocons who desire and actively seek a permanent war-footing for America. This is just one of them.

Allow me to offer an opportunity to get current.

China in America's cross-hairs:
2005- Robert D. Kaplan and neocon hawks clamor for new Cold War

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/062005_kaplan_clamor.shtml

Read it and learn something or shut the fuck up.

Very interesting story.
I agree that war with China looms in the near future in some form. It will probably be a cold war with many proxy wars around the globe. I expect a lot of competition for South America which means more close-proximity war for America to add the fearsome, bloody and growing 'drug war'.

Of course, underlying all that is the increased threat of nuclear exchange, though more likely to play a role as deterrent.

So much for ever seeing civil liberties return to a barely acceptable normal level in my lifetime.

We were extremely lucky to live in America's age of riches, and now, perhaps, we will get to see what the rest of the world has been living through while we were lounging around, planning our vacations and deciding where to shop.

Yes. Shit>Fan The worst is yet to come, I'm afraid.

For one thing, the unique US 'consumer based economy', a log-standing illusion, is collapsing like a house of cards. More to the point, it's about over. Of course, it must be Obama's fault because he has been in office for over a year and it was all peachy before that.

The job's are not coming back. The recession looks as though it is about to enter phase II of double dip and America has no manufacturing base sufficient to serve it's needs.

As the Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times".

+^d

The problem is that there isn't REALLY any such thing as a consumer based economy, just consumer based economic decline. MAKING things is the source of ,...er,...actually having things you can hold on to. Information based economy is all very well and good,....but information is more like currency, and it almost always devalues with the passing of time. Its all about "the stuff",....and the energy to make stuff. I think our culture has become psychologically/philosophically detached from this hard reality. (Though we still seem to have a certain enthusiasm for the "just take stuff" notion.)

Yeah, the 'just take stuff' notion. China might have decided that'll work for them as well. Of course, they did a long time ago but kept it minimal for a few decades. This could be about to change.
The problem for the US in the future when it wants to go out and take stuff by force is that China may no longer be prepared to loan it money for gas.

holy crap PC...you have got more interesting stories than you ever let on...thank you for sharing that.

I would like to add that even though we have been extremely lucky to live in America's stage of riches, it is not a completely bad thing for humans to become less dependent on the 'things' we have allowed ourselves to become dependent upon, and a lot of us have already come to that conclusion as we attempt to be more conscious of our consumption habits.

There is a difference, I would suggest, between what is good for the human, and what is good for the systems the human constructs.

Well said.

Fuckberries! Those are great on Count Chocula.