Community | March 30, 2010 | 20 comments

How the 'climategate' scandal is COMPLETELY BOGUS and based on climate sceptics' lies

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WakeUpPeople
Claims based on email soundbites are demonstrably false – there is manifestly no evidence of clandestine data manipulation.

Almost all the media and political discussion about the hacked climate emails has been based on soundbites publicised by professional sceptics and their blogs. In many cases, these have been taken out of ­context and twisted to mean something they were never intended to.

Elizabeth May, veteran head of the Canadian Green party, claims to have read all the emails and declared: "How dare the world's media fall into the trap set by ­contrarian propagandists without reading the whole set?"

If those journalists had read even a few words beyond the soundbites, they would have realised that they were often being fed lies. Here are a few examples.

The most quoted soundbite in the affair comes from an email from Prof Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, to Prof Mike Mann of the University of Virginia in 1999, in which he discussed using "Mike's Nature trick" to "hide the decline". The phrase has been widely spun as an effort to prevent the truth getting out that global temperatures had stopped rising.

The Alaska governor Sarah Palin, in the Washington Post on 9 December, attacked the emailers as a "highly politicised scientific circle" who "manipulated data to 'hide the decline' in global temperatures". She was joined by the Republican senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma – who has for years used his chairmanship of the Environment and Public Works Committee to campaign against climate scientists and to dismiss anthropogenic global warming as "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people". During the Copenhagen climate conference, which he attended on a Senate delegation, he referred to Jones's "hide the decline" quote and said: "Of course, he means hide the decline in temperatures."

This is nonsense. Given the year the email was written, 1999, it cannot be anything of the sort. At that time there was no suggestion of a decline in temperatures. The previous year was the warmest on record. The full email from Jones says: "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith [Briffa]'s, to hide the decline."The decline being referred to was an apparent decline in temperatures shown in analysis of tree rings, which have historically correlated well with changes in temperature. That relationship has broken down in the past half century. The reasons are still debated.

The "trick" was a graphic device used by Mann in a 1998 paper in Nature to merge tree ring data from earlier times with thermometer data for recent decades. He explained it in the paper. Jones was repeating it in another paper. "This is a trick only in the sense of being a good way to deal with a vexing problem," Mann told the Guardian. Clearly, this problem with modern tree data raises questions about older data – at least until the reason for the divergence is nailed down. But it is not clandestine data ­manipulation, or, as claimed by Palin and Inhofe, a trick to hide global cooling. That charge is a lie.

While he was in Copenhagen, Inhofe made a link between the "trick" to "hide the decline" and the second most popular soundbite. He said that "of course [Jones] meant hide the decline in temperatures, which caused another scientist, Kevin Trenberth of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, to write: 'The fact is we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't.'"

The link is bogus. The two emails were 10 years apart. Unlike Jones, Trenberth's remark from October 2009 was indeed about the slackening of the warming trend that some like to interpret as cooling. That much is agreed. But Inhofe and other sceptics latched on to Trenberth's "travesty" phrase as a revelation that scientists were trying to keep cooling secret because it undermined their arguments about global warming.

Again this is demonstrably false. Nothing was hidden. For months, Trenberth had been discussing publicly his concerns about the inability of scientists to pin down the precise reason for the "absence of warming" since 1998. He had argued in the journal Current Opinion in Environmental Stability in early 2009 that "it is not a sufficient explanation to say that a cool year [he had 2008 in mind] is due to natural variability (pdf)". Such explanations "do not provide the physical mechanisms involved". This was the "travesty" he was referring to in his email. He wanted scientists to do better.He said the best way to improve the explanation and make it more specific was to make better measurements of the planet's energy budget. This would allow scientists to distinguish between any changes in the greenhouse effect, which would result in more or less heat overall in the atmosphere and oceans, and short-term natural cycles of variability, which merely redistribute heat. He was debating this with the former head of the Climatic Research Unit Tom Wigley, who took a different view. But their genuine scientific discussion has, since the publication of the emails online, been hijacked by ignorant or malicious invective.

Several other soundbites were subject to perverse or dishonest interpretations by commentators. Patrick Michaels, the climatologist and polemicist for the rightwing Cato Institute, published a long op-ed piece in the DC Examiner, slamming Mann for an email quote about keeping sceptics' papers out of the IPCC report "even if we have to redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is".

Michaels is an old foe of Mann's, but this genuinely damaging statement was actually made by Jones.

In another case George Will, celebrated in some circles as an intellectual, told ABC's This Week programme that Mann had said in an email that he wished to "delete, get rid of, the medieval warming period". No such words appear anywhere in the emails. What Mann said was that "it would be nice to try to 'contain' the putative 'MWP'". And an intellectual like Will should have known that, in this context, "contain" means to understand its dimensions – how warm it was and how long it was. Mann explained as much to anyone who asked. Verdict: not guilty.

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20 comments // How the 'climategate' scandal is COMPLETELY BOGUS and based on climate sceptics' lies

  • cjshaker
    • 0
      cjshaker  
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    • Are you curious about the glacial cycle, and where we are in it?

      Over the past 800,000 years, we've had 8 glacial cycles, each about 100,000 years long, consisting of roughly 90,000 years of advancing ice followed by roughly 10,000 years of warmth. Sometimes, the warm period has been up to 23,000 years long.

      http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/289/5486/1897
      http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/289/5486/1897

      We appear to be around 14,000 years into the current warming period.

      Somehow, they measure deuterium in the ancient ice cores, and derive the temperature record from that. They've currently got ice cores, and the temperature record they provide, going back about a million years.

      This National Geographic web page mentions that the highest and lowest temperatures obtained from analysis of the ice cores spanning the past 800,000 years occurred during our most recent glacial cycle. The hottest temperature was 4.5 degrees Celsius warmer than today. That was 130,000 years ago.

      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/07/070705-antarctica-ice.html

      It seems interesting to me that record high and low temperatures, and the glacial maximum, for the past 800,000 years were set during this most recent glacial cycle!

      Given that the maximum temperature during the last warming cycle was about 4.5 C warmer than today, it seems likely that we'll continue to see much warmer temperatures during this warm cycle, just due to the natural glacial cycle.

      This source gives a history of the science behind our understanding of the past glacial cycles.

      http://www.aip.org/history/climate/cycles.htm

      It seems to show that the end of this warm period is fairly near.

      I welcome factual corrections, additional information, or education.

    • 3 years ago
  • CalgarC
  • cjshaker
    • 0
      cjshaker  
    • Interesting how few of us have the guts to use our actual names.

      It's also interesting how you avoid commenting about the exaggerations that the IPCC has already admitted to making.

      Chris Shaker

    • 3 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • cjshaker:

      The IPCC is not perfect. They make scientific predictions as best they can, knowing full well that they will never be exact, but based on the information they have. They openly admit when they make mistakes. The truth of the matter is that they have actually been too conservative on most of their predictions, yet you have no outrage on those errors. I thought you were mad when people "lied" to you. In most cases they "lied" about how small the threat actually was. But you want to focus on the few that they overestimated. You are targeting your outrage on the smallest portion of the IPCC's errors. If you are objective, you might want to look at the underestimations as well.

    • 3 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
  • JanforGore
    • 0
      JanforGore  
    • Hasn't this been beaten to death enough already? Sure wish we could see more threads about solutions instead of the same threads about "climategate" that only serve the agenda of those looking to distract us from those actions and solutions. Have you written your letter to the Senate yet to demand an adequate climate bill?

    • 3 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • JanforGore:

      Yes Jan. I have. I get a little frustrated with you when you respond to my posts in this manner. While I have done my part, you and I need others to do theirs. Unfortunately, many have taken the bait on "climategate" and I am working to set the record straight. Please stop suggesting that everything I post is unimportant. I don't do that to you.

    • 3 years ago
  • artemis6
  • cjshaker
    • 0
      cjshaker  
    • Image
    • The IPCC Reports have been attacked for their exaggerations about the possible ill effects of global warming.

      So far, there have been three exaggerations identified. The first was about the glacier melt rates in the Himalayan mountains. The second was about the amount of land below Sea Level in Holland. The third was about African crop production. All three are exaggerations of possible effects of global warming.

      The IPCC has now acknowledged that their comments about the Himalayan glacier melt rate had no basis in fact.

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistak...

      Exaggerations about the possible effects of Global Warming on Holland have been exposed in the papers there.

      http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2010/02/anger_over_second_climate_pane.php

      "According to the last IPCC report, published in 2007, some 55% of the Netherlands is below sea level and 65% of gross national product is produced in that area. But according to the national statistics office CBS, just 20% of the country is below sea level and 19% of GDP is earned there."

      The most recent scandal involves exaggerations about the effect of Global Warming on African Crop Production:

      http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7017907.ece

      "The most important is a claim that global warming could cut rain-fed north African crop production by up to 50% by 2020, a remarkably short time for such a dramatic change. The claim has been quoted in speeches by Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, and by Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general.

      This weekend Professor Chris Field, the new lead author of the IPCC’s climate impacts team, told The Sunday Times that he could find nothing in the report to support the claim."

      I find it interesting that most American media has only mentioned the glacier melting rate controversy.

      I despise being lied to, no matter by whom, nor matter what your motives are.

      Chris Shaker

    • 3 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • -1
      WakeUpPeople  
    • cjshaker:

      http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode.cfm?id=despite-climategate-ipp...

      Despite Climategate, IPCC Mostly Underestimates Climate Change

      Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, James McCarthy of the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment noted that the IPCC usually errs on the conservative side.

      Lost in the coverage of the so-called climategate email controversy is a key point about the IPCC’s track record of climate change estimates. James McCarthy is on the faculty of the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment. He spoke February 21st at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Diego:

      “If you were to go back and map the IPCC projection for sea level rise and temperature in 1990, look at it in 1995, look at it in 2000. In retrospect you would find that they were conservative. So we talk about errors. If you were to do two ledgers—here are IPCC overestimates, here are IPCC underestimates—over the 20 or so years that these assessments have been running, the underestimate ledger would be much larger than the overestimate. Even with glitches—clearly erroneous editing or sloppy editing that led to these erroneous statements that got us in trouble recently.”

    • 3 years ago
  • BrushwithDeathToothpaste
  • Dagum
    • 0
      Dagum  
    • BrushwithDeathToothpaste:

      @ WakeUpPeople

      Cross that item off your list for the debate. . In NASA’s OWN words (read the article if think its faux or big oil or some "denier" saying it. ) their data is not as accurate as the IPCC's data. (I am not going to show my cards on the IPCC yet)

    • 3 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • Dagum:

      I'm sorry Dagum, but I thought we were going to look at the best data available to us to make informed decisions. I didn't know that you were going to try to throw out all data because Fox "News" reporters call it "bigger than climate-gate".

      From the article: "...USA Today reporter asked if NASA's data "was more accurate" than other climate-change data sets, NASA's Dr. Reto A. Ruedy replied with an unequivocal no. He said "the National Climatic Data Center's procedure of only using the best stations is more accurate,"

      So NCDC is the best source for climate data overall, but there are others, such as NASA, that are considered less reliable because some of the readings come from areas with nearby structures.

      From the article: "Dr. Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at Weather Underground, still believes the validity of data from NASA, NOAA and East Anglia would be in jeopardy only if the comparative analysis didn't match. "I see no reason to question the integrity of the raw data," he says. "Since the three organizations are all using mostly the same raw data, collected by the official weather agency of each individual country, the only issue here is whether the corrections done to the raw data were done correctly by CRU."

      So we are back at the question of whether or not you trust the scientists with the raw data, and you have made it clear that you don't. That does not mean that all of the data is flawed and that the scientists do not take the flawed data out of the equation. There is a process for "correcting" the data by the CRU which is described below:

      "Filtering inhomogeneities out of meteorological data is a complicated procedure. Coherent surface air temperature (SAT) datasets like those produced by CRU also require a procedure for combining different (but relatively nearby) record fragments. However, the methods used to undertake these unavoidable tasks are not secret: they have been described in an extensive literature over many decades (e.g. Conrad, 1944; Jones and Moberg, 2003; Peterson et al., 1998, and references therein). Discontinuities may nevertheless persist in data products, but when they are found they are published (e.g. Thompson et al., 2008).

      Furthermore, it is a fairly simple exercise to extract the grid-box temperatures from a CRU dataset—CRUTEM3v for example—and compare it to raw data from World Monthly Surface Station Climatology. CRU data are available from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature. One should not expect a perfect match due to the issues described above, but an exercise like this does provide a simple way to evaluate the extent to which the CRU data represent the underlying raw data. In particular, it would presumably be of interest to know whether the trends in the CRU data are very different than the trends in the raw data, since this could be taken as indication that the methods used by CRU result in an overstatement of the evidence for global warming.

      As an example, we extracted a sample of raw land-surface station data and corresponding CRU data. These were arbitrarily selected based on the following criteria: the length of record should be ~100 years or longer, and the standard reference period 1961–1990 (used to calculate SAT anomalies) must contain no more than 4 missing values. We also selected stations spread as widely as possible over the globe. We randomly chose 94 out of a possible 318 long records. Of these, 65 were sufficiently complete during the reference period to include in the analysis. These were split into two groups of 33 and 32 stations (Set A and Set B), which were then analyzed separately.

      Results are shown in the following figures. The key points: both Set A and Set B indicate warming with trends that are statistically identical between the CRU data and the raw data (>99% confidence); the histograms show that CRU quality control has, as expected, narrowed the variance (both extreme positive and negative values removed)"

      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/12/are-the-cru-data-suspect-a...

      So essentially, the random extreme highs and lows that occurred were dismissed and they were less that 1% of the entire raw data. Again, we are in a situation where a skeptic thinks they have found something that the scientific community has not already considered, but the truth is that they already have and they have already chosen to select the absolutely most reliable data to use in their analysis.

      I hope you read the whole thing. Sorry it was long, but there was a lot of information to provide.

    • 3 years ago
  • BrushwithDeathToothpaste
    • 0
      BrushwithDeathToothpaste  
    • Dagum:

      Yes not as accurate. That is a NASA quote and that is what I said. Where exactly is the deceit or incompetence? So because NASA's primary job and funding is not dedicated to monitoring global temps then we are to believe they are part of the Climategate scandal?

      I'm glad you can read. Now learn to interpret.

    • 3 years ago
  • Dagum
    • 0
      Dagum  
    • BrushwithDeathToothpaste:

      "I'm glad you can read. Now learn to interpret."

      Take your own advice with a side of green-kool aid. Yes I responded to you but with the "@wakeupeople”

      My comment “Cross that item off your list for the debate.”

      Was referring to a list of arguments he made for belief in the global warming dogma. If you read and interpreted my response you could probably deduct that one of the items on his list revolved around the NASA dataset.

      But then again from my comment you somehow deduct that I said “NASA… is part of the Climategate scandal.”

      It’s okay deductive reasoning is not for everyone. Work through it slowly, you’ll do better next time.

    • 3 years ago
  • Dagum
    • 0
      Dagum  
    • WakeUpPeople:

      We are going to look at the best data set available but one of your points on that list was that NASA disagreed with me . Since they had their own dataset, logic would infer that they relied on it. And its substantially worse the IPCC/CRU data (to no ones surprise because they are not a climate but a space agency). So cross that off your list. If we are going to debate you have to be able to concede points. I will.

    • 3 years ago
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • Dagum:

      But the point I was trying to make was that NASA admits that the raw data it collects is less reliable than that of the NCDC (basically NASA has more stations that have to be dismissed because of interference from other structures, but that does not suggest that all of the data from all of the stations is useless). The second point from the article was that there should only be concern if NASA's data (once corrected) failed to match the data from the other 3 organizations, which it did not. So the overall point to be made is that these organizations are only using the best, most reliable data in their analysis. Twisting the words of a NASA employee to suggest that ALL of the data is faulty is an incorrect assessment. You may consider this a scratch off the list, but I would hope your future claims are more substantiated. This taken out of context soundbite "journalism" isn't what I was hoping to learn from you.

    • 3 years ago
  • Dagum
  • WakeUpPeople
    • 0
      WakeUpPeople  
    • Who needs context when you've got SOUNDBITES! Nobody cares what they really meant, what matters is how we arrange their words to make them look bad. OH SNAP! These few email soundbites just demolished every bit of climate study ever done by anyone worldwide! You got PWNED!!! Let me see Big Oil and Big Coal raise the roof on this one!!! //end sarcasm

      The greatest ploy of the doubt industry is to tarnish the name of important scientific individuals and therefore to inject doubt into the whole science by association. They cannot back up their skeptic claims with any concrete proof, unless they are giving you a short term weather report. (ie. Today was colder than yesterday so global warming is obviously a hoax.) This method of thinking is absurdly small in comparison to the study of global climate. It is much more complex than deniers think, and believe it or not, unless you are an actual CLIMATologist, then you are NOT an expert. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have taken an interest in the studies and I have learned a great deal from their reports. I would instantly defer to their expertise on the subject, just as I would defer to a astrophysicist for questions about black holes. They have dedicated their lives to the study of the subject, and they know more about it than anyone else. We should listen to them.

    • 3 years ago
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