Community | October 29, 2010 | 67 comments

Paul Krugman says: Be very afraid if elections go as expected next week

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Not very, say some pundits. After all, the last time Republicans controlled Congress while a Democrat lived in the White House was the period from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2000. And people remember that era as a good time, a time of rapid job creation and responsible budgets. Can we hope for a similar experience now?

No, we can’t. This is going to be terrible. In fact, future historians will probably look back at the 2010 election as a catastrophe for America, one that condemned the nation to years of political chaos and economic weakness.

Start with the politics.

In the late-1990s, Republicans and Democrats were able to work together on some issues. President Obama seems to believe that the same thing can happen again today. In a recent interview with National Journal, he sounded a conciliatory note, saying that Democrats need to have an “appropriate sense of humility,” and that he would “spend more time building consensus.” Good luck with that.

After all, that era of partial cooperation in the 1990s came only after Republicans had tried all-out confrontation, actually shutting down the federal government in an effort to force President Bill Clinton to give in to their demands for big cuts in Medicare.

Now, the government shutdown ended up hurting Republicans politically, and some observers seem to assume that memories of that experience will deter the G.O.P. from being too confrontational this time around. But the lesson current Republicans seem to have drawn from 1995 isn’t that they were too confrontational, it’s that they weren’t confrontational enough.

Another recent interview by National Journal, this one with Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, has received a lot of attention thanks to a headline-grabbing quote: “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

If you read the full interview, what Mr. McConnell was saying was that, in 1995, Republicans erred by focusing too much on their policy agenda and not enough on destroying the president: “We suffered from some degree of hubris and acted as if the president was irrelevant and we would roll over him. By the summer of 1995, he was already on the way to being re-elected, and we were hanging on for our lives.” So this time around, he implied, they’ll stay focused on bringing down Mr. Obama.

True, Mr. McConnell did say that he might be willing to work with Mr. Obama in certain circumstances — namely, if he’s willing to do a “Clintonian back flip,” taking positions that would find more support among Republicans than in his own party. Of course, this would actually hurt Mr. Obama’s chances of re-election — but that’s the point.

We might add that should any Republicans in Congress find themselves considering the possibility of acting in a statesmanlike, bipartisan manner, they’ll surely reconsider after looking over their shoulder at the Tea Party-types, who will jump on them if they show any signs of being reasonable. The role of the Tea Party is one reason smart observers expect another government shutdown, probably as early as next spring.

Beyond the politics, the crucial difference between the 1990s and now is the state of the economy.

When Republicans took control of Congress in 1994, the U.S. economy had strong fundamentals. Household debt was much lower than it is today. Business investment was surging, in large part thanks to the new opportunities created by information technology — opportunities that were much broader than the follies of the dot-com bubble.

In this favorable environment, economic management was mainly a matter of putting the brakes on the boom, so as to keep the economy from overheating and head off potential inflation. And this was a job the Federal Reserve could do on its own by raising interest rates, without any help from Congress.

Today’s situation is completely different. The economy, weighed down by the debt that households ran up during the Bush-era bubble, is in dire straits; deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger. And it’s not at all clear that the Fed has the tools to head off this danger. Right now we very much need active policies on the part of the federal government to get us out of our economic trap.

But we won’t get those policies if Republicans control the House. In fact, if they get their way, we’ll get the worst of both worlds: They’ll refuse to do anything to boost the economy now, claiming to be worried about the deficit, while simultaneously increasing long-run deficits with irresponsible tax cuts — cuts they have already announced won’t have to be offset with spending cuts.

So if the elections go as expected next week, here’s my advice: Be afraid. Be very afraid.
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67 comments // Paul Krugman says: Be very afraid if elections go as expected next week

  • addie340
    • 0
      addie340  
    • Your scare tactics didn't work, your name calling didn't work, trying to blame everything on Bush didn't work. Americans are not stupid like you think. The Democratic FAILED policies are real no matter how you try to spin it. This is a referendum on Obama's Policies. America is speaking out loud and clear !!!! Now everyone knows what CHANGE is and NO ONE wants it, well Obama does and a few radical left wing nut jobs do also, but America DOES NOT !!!

    • 1 year ago
  • JohnA
  • Paratus
    • 0
      Paratus  
    • Krugman has a few things backward.
      If Obama works with the Republicans it will be because he has finally made the effort to do so. They were excluded from most of the big legislation over the past two years.
      The so -called Republican shutdown of the government in the 90's can be equally shared by Clinton. He had his position and theRepublcians had theirs. Clinton stubbornly refused to deal and, in the end, the republicans gave in rather than let Clinton continure to shut the government down.
      Let's not forget the tech-stock meltdown when the Dow and many 401(k)'s lost 50% or more of their value. This started in March 2000 and continued for a year.
      Krugman is myoptic. Any running of the government, if Republicans take the Hill, will depend on both parties working together. Unfortunately, to Democrats and liberals, that menas doing it their way only. OBAMA has to learn what is means to work with the Republicans not the other way around.

    • 1 year ago
  • Tyr
  • NevadaDave
    • 0
      NevadaDave  
    • I agree with Mr. Krugman. Unfortunately, I am afraid that too many Americans have drunk the Fox News Kool-Aid.

      Turn off Fox News!

      Fox News is bad for America!

    • 1 year ago
  • discusted
  • MarissaMFer
  • postlapsaria
    • 0
      postlapsaria  
    • I just read an analysis the other day about how our political landscape looks like 1982. Granted that was a Republican president, but the same set up was there; the economy and jobs were down, the incumbent party was killed and the prez was next. then the economy recovered and the jobs came back and now Reagan is looked back on as a great president.

      so when the republicans take the house and maybe the senate, we don't have to use the 90's as a blueprint, if the economy can progress a little bit, all will be forgiven and the government will balance out again for another generation and we'll see how we fuck it up again in 20 years.

    • 1 year ago
  • Alaskajoe
    • +1
      Alaskajoe  
    • Thanks for the post, but, sadly I don't think anything short of a French Revolution response will do anything to help. We are far too apathetic, lethargic and complacent in this day and age to do anything other than send out emails in all capitol letters. Sorry America, but you are a pussy.

    • 1 year ago
  • opit
    • +1
      opit  
    • Thechimera that we have a choice continues as usual. BTW Is it possible for us to do a DDOS attack on that jerk spamming us ? We've enough members that the potential might be there.

    • 1 year ago
  • corndog67
    • 0
      corndog67  
    • Nothing at all is going to change. The whole attitude of we are right, and everyone else is wrong, is being practiced by both sides. The fact that the conservative side, votes against EVERYTHING the other side puts up, and the same with the Dems voting against EVERYTHING the right puts up is just ridiculous. Considering that if you pay attention to what they all do, it's obvious that Corporate America owns both parties.

    • 1 year ago
  • mindcruzer
  • MarissaMFer
    • 0
      MarissaMFer  
    • corndog67:

      What you're saying is exactly what I'm talking about. You let the media coverage make you apathetic. If everyone goes around thinking "nothing is ever going to change", we all sit on our ass and watch as our country goes down in flames. We want change? Let's make it instead of moping and pointing fingers at the incompetence and greed of our elected officials (whom the people have voted for).

    • 1 year ago
  • corndog67
    • 0
      corndog67  
    • MarissaMFer:

      What kind of change Marissa? The Healthcare Initiative? No change that I can see, other than our premiums went up $100/month. No change in coverage, no change in who participates, no change whatsoever. How about smaller government? Well, we had the longest wait of any DMV office in CA, so what do they do? They close it, and send us to smaller cities 30 miles away. What about taxes? For some reason or another, last year I received a refund of $1800 from the Feds, and this year, I owed $3400, with no changes to our withholding, income or anything else. Is it the Democrats fault? Republicans fault? The church's fault? God's fault?

      Still, I don't see any difference between the 2 parties, just a little jargon, we like this, and we like that, while the other side hates this and that. I think the 2 party system is going to bring this country down. And the media coverage includes Current, which is read to get the lefty side of things, but there is a lot of blindness going on here, too. I don't watch Fox, I do watch the main 3 networks' news shows. I do read a lot, but most of that is spun also. I think things are going to get worse for the country before it gets better.

    • 1 year ago
  • Tyr
    • +6
      Tyr  
    • What has become clear to me is that from the moment that President Obama was elected the attitude of conservatives was that if they were not in power then they were willing to sabotage this nations efforts to climb out of the hole that they and their policies had created. They are like a jilted lover who kills the object of his desire... or in other words. if he can't have her, nobody can! To be blunt about it, if they can't screw this country they are willing to destroy it..a scorched earth tactic that retreating armies use to deny their enemies any benefit from it......They have often used the name of Hitler to try and tar our president, but I have to tell you their tactics are remarkably reminiscent of his order to destroy Paris rather than concede it to the allies...from my perspective that is exactly what they are doing with their filibustering and outright statements that call for the failure of our president and his efforts to restore our economy to what it was prior to the utter destruction of it during the eight year disaster that is the hallmark of the Bush administration..

    • 1 year ago
  • remanns
  • Alaskajoe
  • Mark701
    • +2
      Mark701  
    • I think Krugman is correct in his analysis. However, what is less certain is America's reaction to the GOP's "strategy". A large majority of Americans are in trouble financially and cutting taxes doesn't help much when you're unemployed. If the GOP goes through with things like cutting unemployment benefits, welfare, while fighting to keep Bush's tax break to the wealthy I don't see things going well for them in the short term or long term. There is only so much hypocrisy that the American public will tolerate.

      That said, I still expect them to try. Primarily because like most conservatives, they don't face facts and have no understanding of basic human nature. That lack of understanding is why they are the way they are.

      Also, like they say, payback is a bitch. They have shown their colors when Obama extended the olive branch to them in 2009. I don't expect that democrats in congress will forget that and will repay them in kind by using the fillibuster to stall any bills that are presented by the House.

      Additionally there are several legislative landmines that now will be the headache of the GOP. One is that come April they will be forced to raise the federal spending limit to allow the government to pay it's bills. This will likely send the Tea Baggers into a frenzy that will blow up in the GOPs face.

      Second will be the issue about extending tax cuts for the wealthy. Liberals got angry with Reid and Pelosi when they punted on that issue such that it wouldn't get voted on until after the elections. As far as I'm concerned the move was brilliant strategy on their part. They dropped the ball in the lap of the GOP.

      Now while the GOP is busy cutting things like unemployment and welfare benefits because 'we can't afford them', they will be hard pressed to explain why they are adding 4 trillion dollars to the federal deficit by allowing the tax breaks to continue. As I indicated I don't see any of this going well for them.

    • 1 year ago
  • Tyr
    • +1
      Tyr  
    • Mark701:

      I hope you projections are correct, however I must say this, given the support the American public appears to be giving the lunatic fringe these days doesn't fill me with much optimism.

    • 1 year ago
  • thedirtman
  • Mark701
  • Tyr
  • Oba_min_ation
  • CCorsair
  • MarissaMFer
    • 0
      MarissaMFer  
    • Mehh. I think the media coverage of these nuts make people believe that the tea party is a majority. And that makes people not bother to vote. I have faith that our country will get better as soon as we decide to come together as American citizens instead of Democrats and Republicans; whites and blacks; Muslims and Christians.

      Anyways, I think the tea party will be more detrimental to the GOP in the long run. Soon enough, the tea party candidates will be running against moderate republicans and that will divide the party... So, I'm not panicking yet.

    • 1 year ago
  • Introspective
  • navider
  • dote36
  • Varex_Sythe
  • kennymotown
    • +4
      kennymotown  
    • The greatest move the Tea bagging Republican party could do, would be to shut down government in a time when it is needed most. I pity any member of the republican party that sides with this faction cause they will surely die. The Phony trumped up Tea Party is just the tip of the sword of disgruntled citizens who really care about our government. The Tea Party represents the old dissatisfied racially motivated sector of America, it is a totally tactical mis-judgement of where the real America stands. Literally tens of millions of Americans stand ready to stomp these types as fast as you can say, it's on.

    • 1 year ago
  • Sparky2U
  • kennymotown
  • kennymotown
    • +4
      kennymotown  
    • Great post navider, this is exactly what I have been warning people about. But as I have also warned, we need too expose who the bad people are and hit bottom before we can eliminate them. I am looking forward to a battle against evil in the darkest kind, after years of fighting them legally the country needs a dose of pure justice. It will clean the slate and i am ready and willing to fight too the end.

    • 1 year ago
  • navider
    • +2
      navider  
    • kennymotown:

      Thanks and I'm in man. Find a stable job if you don't have one and live a modest life cause america will hit rock bottom soon..............when the shit hits fan I'm going to be ready!

    • 1 year ago
  • kennymotown
    • +2
      kennymotown  
    • navider:

      Where are you located, I have a small army poised for my command when the shit hits the fan. I will not let these bastards steel my country! I am looking for more recruits and as always we will meet in the middle.

    • 1 year ago
  • navider
  • kennymotown
  • Sparky2U
  • kennymotown
  • navider
    • +2
      navider  
    • Does anyone see this country actually making any progress when the main republican motive is to prevent Obama from getting re-elected in 2012?

    • 1 year ago
  • artemis6
  • fun_size
    • 0
      fun_size  
    • navider:

      That was the Republican plan since before he even took office! Take 1 look at the Senate right now and tell me the Repubs arent actively sabotaging this country.

    • 1 year ago
  • Sparky2U
  • navider
    • +3
      navider  
    • I really hope Krugman is not right but he almost always is. This should scare the crap out of everyone, liberal and conservative because we will all end up paying the cost of this.

    • 1 year ago
  • remanns
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