Community | February 09, 2011 | 23 comments

Peak Oil in 2012? Saudi Arabia's Oil Overestimated by 40%, Wikileaks Reveals

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The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.

According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil".

Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: "According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray."

It went on: "In a presentation, Abdallah al-Saif, current Aramco senior vice-president for exploration, reported that Aramco has 716bn barrels of total reserves, of which 51% are recoverable, and that in 20 years Aramco will have 900bn barrels of reserves.

"Al-Husseini disagrees with this analysis, believing Aramco's reserves are overstated by as much as 300bn barrels. In his view once 50% of original proven reserves has been reached … a steady output in decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. He believes that what will result is a plateau in total output that will last approximately 15 years followed by decreasing output."

The US consul then told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."

Seven months later, the US embassy in Riyadh went further in two more cables. "Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term. Clearly they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period."

A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. "Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018," it said.

It also reported major project delays and accidents as "evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production." While fears of premature "peak oil" and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.

In the last two years, other senior energy analysts have backed Husseini. Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian last year that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: "We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wik...
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23 comments // Peak Oil in 2012? Saudi Arabia's Oil Overestimated by 40%, Wikileaks Reveals

  • tommic
    • 0
      tommic  
    • royulery, you put in on the spot, production quotas were based on proven reserves of which all lie about to pump out as much as possible to make money. Production of 28 out 33 oil producing countries has declined for three years, this is a fact. With that is mind peak oil came already, oil companies are playing a speculation game and they are leaving the world in the lurch when oil production starts its fast decline which will be soon. And I tend to believe the financial resources the oil companies have will leave them enough to change over production to ethenol very quick, and bio mass or sugar cane both work well for ethanol sources. Brazil is energy independent between their own oil and sugar cane ethanol manufactured along with natural gas which they also have vast reserves

    • 1 year ago
  • royulery
    • 0
      royulery  
    • the arabs have a saying "my father rode a camel, i drive a car, my son will fly a jet, my grandson will ride a camel"

    • 1 year ago
  • royulery
    • 0
      royulery  
    • i've worked on drilling rigs and i studied geology to become a petrologist but became a gemologist. my sources say we are at peak oil now.
      there wasn't a over estimation, it was an outright lie. oil is one of the few thing that we know exactly how much and where it is. seismic graphs are very precise when it comes to fluid pockets and the whole earth has been sonogramed over and over. a country is allowed to sell a percentage of it's reserve so everybody lies so they can sell more. countries like venezuela have doubled their estimate even though they are tapped out. some believe peak oil happened in the 70's but it was hidden by over drilling.

    • 1 year ago
  • David_Young
    • 0
      David_Young  
    • For me the "investment" in a EV or hybrid is difficult to justify since its three miles from my home to work. I am considering getting a mule or donkey when I am ready to make a change or to make a statement. A horse would be too bourgeois. And I don't like the smell of them.

    • 1 year ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • David_Young:

      Make a statement? OK. Get a moped and build a fake donkey cover around it that looks real. Don't forget the donkey sounds. Use a bunch of hemp to make the tail. You can put the license plate on the oops [to be discreet]. A poop catcher with names of your favorite talk show hosts written in it works here, but especially the ones with da fat paychecks who keep screaming we can make their money too if we just buckle down and apply ourselves like they did totally ignoring the breaks they got in their time that seldom exist anywhere today [but for a choice few like them pushing LaLa Land 24 hours a day like Borax Mule Team soap].

      Let us know how it works out for ya!

    • 1 year ago
  • Sir_Mckenna
  • Prijedor
    • +1
      Prijedor  
    • They probably are, just like they are lying about oil being "fossil fuel" to make people think that it can run out so they can jack up the prices.

    • 1 year ago
  • littlwarrior
  • toyotabedzrock
    • +4
      toyotabedzrock  
    • Now we know why gas prices have spiked and why we had the market crash.

      Some investors got into the know and found out about this in 2007.

      It is also why the elites are hoarding wealth and gold. They want to protect themselves and leave the rest of the world to devolve into chaos.

      If we do not band together and take back our wealth so we can fix this asap humanity is doomed to another dark ages.

    • 1 year ago
  • iowawashington
  • WakeUpPeople
  • RaceBannon
    • +5
      RaceBannon  
    • in one sense many of us must think "oh what glorious fortune, the oil business faces collapse" while the more observant of the crowd must realize this is one of many signals all sorts of unimaginable looming catastrophes facing the earth.
      We based our entire way of life on petroleum and by centralizing our societies energy we are now confronted with an ecological and social collapse that no nation can handle in with traditional tactics.

      From anecdotal experience emerges the perverse logic that we can use the markets to solve our energy problems despite knowing it was a market economy that turned earths resources into a commodity to be consumed in the first place. I had this revelation on a recent trip to San Francisco among citizens who praised the idea of shifting consumer attitudes to persuade manufacturers to change their products.. so great neo-liberalism is our salvation, but sadly it just makes for the setting of a potentially dystopian future. Worse yet at the moment our other alternative solution in practice is to limit ourselves making the problem an individual one which as consequence removes responsibility from society to the supposed few "bad guys"... I call this reasoning "captain planet logic".

      One must ask the philosophical question, how insane on a planet that receives more energy from the sun than it ever will use that we must impose limits on energy consumption? We shouldn't limit energy we should have a paradigm shift into society that makes wastefulness and pollution virtually impossible through efforts of society. Neither should try to impose an eco value on each other but rather create a society who takes a collective role as stewards of the earth while pursuing advancement. I know this can be misinterpreted but I can only hope i got the point across. I wont provide solutions and ask all who care to take the philosophers method and question everyone to challenge their worldviews, only then can we truly have answers.

      Sadly my worst fear is that we'll continue until we're on the brink of extinction and our governments will enact emergency measures in order to save humanity. This quote illustrates a possible future:

      “Man would live in a plastic bubble that would protect his survival and make it increasingly worthless … People would be confined from birth to death in a world-wide schoolhouse, treated in a world-wide hospital, surrounded by television screens, and the man-made environment would be distinguishable in name only from a world-wide prison.”

    • 1 year ago
  • tommic
    • +3
      tommic  
    • The Saudi's have been overestimating reserves for years as production is linked to reserves. So now everyone will know the truth, peak oil is here, and gas will be 4 dollars a gallon by summer and five or six by 2013

    • 1 year ago
  • BenjaminDover
  • artemis6
  • BenjaminDover
  • extracrazykiwi2008
  • JanforGore
  • ThatCrazyLibertarian
  • tverdell
  • tverdell
    • +3
      tverdell  
    • Oil reserves are considered a national secret and are not open for public disclosure.

      Twilight in the Desert
      -- Matt Simmons (recently deceased)

    • 1 year ago
  • Tim_Patrick
    • +9
      Tim_Patrick  
    • For those still wondering if an investment in a hybrid or electric car is worth it, I would venture a guess and say yes. Personally, I would go with the Nissan Leaf. The only way this country will become independent of Foreign Oil is by its individual citizens making themselves independent.

      Solar panels on the roof, with a Leaf in the garage. Congratulations, I get free mileage out of my car. Wonderfully, blissfully, not worried about gas prices.

    • 1 year ago
  • Gravity_Man
    • 0
      Gravity_Man  
    • Tim_Patrick:

      I'm with ya man. I turned the thermostat down to 71 and it was GREAT. I could hear the electric meter outside turning slower, and slower, and slower, until I realized I was slipping into hypothermia => zero thyroid, abandoning ship.

      Tomorrow however I may try another angle. I had a vision just last night, of surrounding my bed with a cardboard box canopy and turning the heat down to 65!

      I will achieve independence I am INVINCIBLE!

      Obama, Obama, Obama!

    • 1 year ago
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