Community | August 15, 2011 | 73 comments

It looks like the stimulus worked after all

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regroce
Conservative economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin has a chart he's fond of that demonstrates just how ineffective the 2009 stimulus was. Basically, it shows that the stimulus cost $260 billion and produced only an extra $268 billion in GDP. Personally, I'd take even that, but his point is that the stimulus produced no Keynesian multiplier effect at all. It was just a 1:1 replacement of revenue from one source to another.

But as you may recall, the BEA recently revised its GDP estimates from late 2008 and 2009, and it turns out the economy was doing much worse than we thought. And if you don't recall this, Michael Linden wants to remind you about it today. He also wants to remind Douglas Holtz-Eakin about it. Because it turns out that when you redo Holtz-Eakin's favorite chart using the corrected data, it suggests that the stimulus bill produced about $544 billion in extra GDP. In other words, a multiplier effect of about 2x.

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/it-looks-stimulus-worked-after-all
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73 comments // It looks like the stimulus worked after all

  • Paratus
  • CreditFigaro
  • GavinTheMother
    • +1
      GavinTheMother  
    • The stimulus went to the banks and other corporations to bail them out of their mistakes (in regards to banks read: fraud). It didn't go into projects that are going to help the average American. We haven't even begun to see the bottom on real estate and US currency is going to hit the shitter within 2 years.

      These figures mean nothing long-term. The stimulus was a life raft for the people who sunk the ship and nothing more than a band aid for the rest of the country. Believe me, we are going to be bleeding for a long time. Giving tons of money to banks and huge corporations doesn't create jobs and only stimulates their own interests.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
  • GavinTheMother
    • +1
      GavinTheMother  
    • regroce:

      Only in theory. Compartmentalizing the "saving" effects of gov't spending vs. economic recovery I believe is a mistake that leads to easy manipulation. I have no problem with the stimulus mentioned here. I do have a serious problem with the idea that it fixed anything. It was like "fixing" a car with rubber bands and duct tape. The overall spending is one step forward 2 steps back with no real attention spent on fixing what got us here in the first place.

    • 9 months ago
  • moodyblue
    • +2
      moodyblue  
    • The stimulus helped.. It wasn't as helpful as I hoped it would be. It wasn't a failure.. wasn't a slam dunk either. I believe we would be in even worse shape if not for it.

    • 9 months ago
  • Schnookums
    • -3
      Schnookums  
    • Whether a Keynesian multiplier was achieved or not is setting you folks up for a false fight.

      Realize that you are being manipulated.

      Ask yourself; Why am I defending the law/program Obama instituted with Keynesian economic logic? Does a money multiplier, if-in-fact achieved, work in my favor? I submit to you, respectfully, that it doesn't.

      Obama is a nice guy with his heart in the right place, but he's still fighting to preserve a system that, even though it admittedly has been distorted, is still foundationally a system that works against the average American's economic best interest.

      There are politicians that have recognized this fundamental, illogical, counterproductive system for what it is, and they, not Obama, deserve your full support.

    • 9 months ago
  • Schnookums
  • CreditFigaro
    • +1
      CreditFigaro  
    • Schnookums:

      You know, the stimulus is a fine idea. The only problem is that without tax reform and heavy tax rates on very high income individuals, we end up in the same place.

      The balloon just leaks into the atmosphere no matter how much you fill it up.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
    • +3
      regroce  
    • Schnookums:

      I see many object to Keynesian economics, and they usually have one thing in common: they're Ron Paul supporters.

      In their criticism of Keynes, though, they usually only refer to one page in the very large theory, which has many different guidelines and methods that vary pending on economic circumstances. For example, free trade is promoted - when it would benefit the economy without repercussion. Heavily restricted trade is also promoted - when needed in particular economic circumstances. So their criticisms of just one page of the entire theory are not very relevant.

      What many critics also don't recognize is that the economic alternates they offer are either 1) not used anywhere in the last 75 years because of its proven failure (not to mention drastic effects in the central Europe area that tried that theory for almost century), or 2) mimic Marxist theories, which are now being promoted by the GOP in a corporatist/oligarchal format.

      And what both of those alternates truly seek by the head honchos promoting them is nothing more than accumulation of wealth by the wealthy, and by denying any others from opportunity to acquire even middle-class status.

    • 9 months ago
  • Schnookums
    • +1
      Schnookums  
    • CreditFigaro:

      The stimulus was a fine idea if you wanted to support a system that put money into circulation by borrowing. When private demand destruction occurs as the result of regressive tax policy, the government accumulating more debt to off-set the lack of ability (or want) to take on more debt does make sense.

      However if taxes were increased on the top 5% (which is a good idea), or even the top 0.5% in an attempt to balance the fiscal equation , the distortion that action produces in our 40 year-old monetary system would produce down-stream effects as a result of less Treasury issuance.

      You have the right idea that the balloon just deflates despite your attempt pump it up, but there are more holes than you think and plugging one or two just makes the others lose air faster, or new holes develop in places you wouldn't expect them to.

      The game is that rigged.

    • 9 months ago
  • Schnookums
    • +1
      Schnookums  
    • regroce:

      Very well said. ^'d

      And I agree. While Paul and other metallic standard folks (I think) are at least aware of many of the problems that exist today, they are destined to take the fork in the road that leads them right back to the same economic injustices we're experiencing today if they wish to roll back to a gold or some other similar metal standard.

      While I do believe that precious metals should be allowed to freely circulate as money, I do not believe that it suits our current economic or societal needs (unless, of course, world population reverses trend and starts contracting).

    • 9 months ago
  • lazloman
    • +2
      lazloman  
    • A lot of that stimulus was tax cuts, which take money out of the economy. Much of the rest was used to keep people in existing jobs. If there was a mistake in the stimulus, it was that it did not _create_ jobs. What I wanted to hear when it was announced, was that they would use it all to rebuild this country's decaying infrastructure. You would have seen a _huge_ impact if they had done that.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
  • lazloman
  • regroce
    • +1
      regroce  
    • regroce:

      If you refer to the tax cuts on households making less than $80K - those small reductions in income taxes allowed those households to increase spending when opportune, which increased sales taxes collected by states and counties.

      Same goes for the tax cuts on small businesses (and I mean *small*) -

      That $288 bil came out to roughly $600 per applicable household, and about $1200 per applicable small business

    • 9 months ago
  • savroD
  • JohnA
  • EdJoyProductions
  • JohnA
  • EdJoyProductions
    • +5
      EdJoyProductions  
    • JohnA:

      Putting on a public face of irresponsibility and immaturity never inspires confidence. Besides, the downgrading is debatable as it is only one agency with questionable sources of income.

    • 9 months ago
  • kvb1
    • +2
      kvb1  
    • JohnA:

      S&P down grade was place squarely on the RIPublicans who refused to negotiate, and the Democrats that caved. The text of which stated:
      "More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
      Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government’s debt dynamics any time soon".

      Had the "agreement" included increased revenues, there would not have been a down grade. Also, none of the other rating agencies lowered their assessment of US sovereign debt. The US can pay its debts. Congress borrowed the money, under the 14th Amendment, they are obligated to pay it.

    • 9 months ago
  • JohnA
  • joynoel
    • +1
      joynoel  
    • JohnA:

      The irrationality and insanity of the fight is new. In years gone by the legislators fought over who's programs would get the money available from Federal funds, to better the lives of the citizens in their states. Legislators fought for road and bridge projects that gave the people in their states jobs. The thought being that if I keep the people in my state fat and happy they will reelect me. Now the fight is how to get the vast sums of money collected from the middle class into the hands of the corporations that support the politicians. I know they aren't fighting for a position that pays a mere 197,000 dollars a year. The payout must be much greater for these men to sell their souls the way they have. Think about it, JohnA, why do corporations pay out millions to put these people in the House and Senate, they aren't doing it out of a sense of pulic duty, they do it so that these people can funnel our tax dollars into their pockets. Try to see the big picture.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
  • regroce
  • JohnA
  • regroce
  • JohnA
    • -2
      JohnA  
    • regroce:

      They are the tallest midgets in the EU, the worst idea in modern history. Who gives up control of their own currency? France is going to get downgraded anyday now, so they're out anyway. Emergency meeting in Paris just today between Merkel and Sarkozy, wonder what they're talking about?

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
    • +1
      regroce  
    • JohnA:

      Germany has the largest and wealthiest economy on the globe. France is 5th largest, 2nd largest in Europe.

      Both also have income gaps within reasonable spectrums, too.

      and I'll bet you anything you care to risk that France is NOT going to get downgraded - "anyday now" you say?

      Congratulations, johna - you've made it official for us here: *you don't know squat*

    • 9 months ago
  • JohnA
    • -1
      JohnA  
    • regroce:

      The United States has the largest economy. I think Germany is fourth behind China and Japan. And it was widely reported in the business pages that an S&P downgrade of France appeared imminent. I look at the stock market everyday, I am an investor, I pay attention, I like it, it is interesting, and I've made more than I've lost. I'm not rich or anything, but I have saved money and made investments, so yes I do know squat, a little anyway.

    • 9 months ago
  • BullDogg
    • 0
      BullDogg  
    • Economists can play with the numbers all they want and claim what they will. But the fact remains that we put it all on credit and are going to have to pay it back, along with the other $14 trillion or so we owe. It's like paying your self with your credit card in a time of need--it feels good at the time, but you will regret it for a long time to come...

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
    • +1
      regroce  
    • BullDogg:

      what I'll regret most is the half of that $14 trillion that went in only 8 years under Bush, and that went to non-taxed corporations who spent it outside the US.

      The latest addition to the debt, in the format of the Recovery Act, stayed HERE. Went into OUR bank accounts. To companies that PAID taxes. And to people who spent that money here, circulating it through the US, and returning it to the government.

    • 9 months ago
  • VoyagerFilms
    • +3
      VoyagerFilms  
    • Well, when you correct for the falsified Rip-us-off-ican falsehoods, you get down to the truth. Twenty points to President Obama and his team!

    • 9 months ago
  • NiceN
  • CreditFigaro
  • Warren_Merrill
    • -15
      Warren_Merrill  
    • A small percentage of the stimulus went into jobs. A majority of it when to political rewards for getting Obama elected. Please explain how organizations like MoveOn and ACORN boost the economy. The stimulus package was nothing but theft of our childrens's financial future.

    • 9 months ago
  • CreditFigaro
  • Warren_Merrill
    • -11
      Warren_Merrill  
    • CreditFigaro:

      So much is placed on this site without research and believed because it benefits the left. When I'm asked for sources either no one responds afterwards or I'm personally insulted since the facts can't be refuted. 6% of the stimulus went to jobs. Look it up.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
    • +11
      regroce  
    • Warren_Merrill:

      Could you please provide us with some reference to defend those claims? I know for a fact that neither ACORN nor MoveOn received any type of federal funding through the stimulus. In fact, MoveOn cannot accept *any* federal funds, and ACORN is practically non-existant (thanks to some pimply kid from FOX Noose).

      So please - defend your statements with evidence, please.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
  • CreditFigaro
    • +5
      CreditFigaro  
    • Image
    • Warren_Merrill:

      Hey man, I get it. It is frustrating to argue with a chair because the person, who you think is sitting there, long since left the room. It happens to all of us who actually care.

      But in good spirit I ran the numbers using a conservative website for your benefit.

      http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/2009-stimulus-bill-cost-228055-per-job-saved-or...

      So, 1.3 million new/saved jobs. The most conservative estimate.

      For $827 billion.

      Churning out the math here...

      $636,000/job

      Average wage in the country?

      Survey says:

      $45,000

      That puts my estimation at 7%.

      Even with the absolute worst, most conservative estimate, you may be right...

      Oh wait, that's not how the economy works.

      Where did the rest of that money go?

      I mean if a company spent $636,000 per job and where did the rest go?

      Perhaps into purchasing materials from suppliers.... do the wages they pay their workers get counted?

      What about buying machinery and utility usage... maybe those companies hire workers to do their work, too?

      Even if they aren't labor intensive (which they are, but I'm assuming the best for you and your argument) where did all the money ULTIMATELY end up... who's hands?

      Either:

      A) Workers
      or
      B) Business owners (rich people/"job creators")

      hmm... so if you think about it, if it wasn't creating jobs, it was just going into the pockets of rich people... I thought you thought society is better off if the "job creators" kept more of their money to "create jobs" with...

      I guess if the number of jobs created is so low... it's because:

      A) You are wrong: the stimulus worked and your numbers aren't taking into account the (gasp) multiplier effect

      OR

      B) You are wrong: the money just ended up in the hands of the wealthy who... wait for it... DIDN'T CREATE ANY JOBS!!

      So which one is it, Warren?

      By the way, you may have gotten that 6% figure from this related article that was linked on the same site.

      http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/6_believe_stimulus_created_jobs/

    • 9 months ago
  • tlbuffin
  • JohnA
  • JohnA
    • -1
      JohnA  
    • tlbuffin:

      It did get federal funding, just not stimulus funding, but it's funding from one basket and not the other. It didn't get stimulus funding, it just got other government funding that was replaced by funding from the stimulus. That make you feel better about yourself?

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
  • JohnA
    • -3
      JohnA  
    • regroce:

      So they got federal funding, just not stimulus federal funding. It came out of one basket to be replaced by funding out of another basket. Yes, that's much better.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
    • +3
      regroce  
    • JohnA:

      why, yes! it does! especially since you join us in refuting the false claims by Wayne. Thanks so much!

      ACORN did not receive one cent from the Recovery Act, unlike Wayne's statement infers.

      ACORN did at one time receive federal funding for HUD projects - a total of $1.6 million (not billion) to help lower-income Americans settle in their own homes.

      ACORN also engaged in unfunded voter registration projects, which FAUX news tried to insinuate was funded, but falsely so. FAUX also tried to insinuate that ACORN operated by providing aid to illiegal immigrant prostitution, which we also know is untrue.

      The only negative thing anyone ever caught on ACORN was when, in its voter registration drives, it paid staff incentives to register specific numbers of folks. That was ruled illegal. Of course, FAUX tried to claim that the registrants were fraudulent, but overlooked the fact that there was nothing ACORN could ever do but turn in any voter registration form it collected, no matter how false it appeared.

      If you yourself, johna, collected a voter registration form from someone who claimed his name to be Donald Duck - if you failed to remit that form to your state's election commission, then *YOU* would be guilty of crime.

      Sounds to me like you're leaning towards the fraudulent claims of Wayne - and if you're going to do that, then maybe you should find another field to graze in.

    • 9 months ago
  • Buddha2112
    • -6
      Buddha2112  
    • Warren_Merrill:

      Easy does it buddy, careful when you point out the obvious... If it's anything slightly against Obama and the 'righteous' left, you'll get reamed a new asshole, by bullshit O-faced lovers. ZOMG A DISAGREEMENT WITH FACTS! DOWNVOTE DOWNVOTE.

      I can't believe people think the stimulus actually... worked, or helped the right people.

      Sucking cock doesn't qualify as a real job, so maybe these lefty's have the market confused with their mouth. Ah well. Good effort anyway.

    • 9 months ago
  • Warren_Merrill
  • Warren_Merrill
  • CreditFigaro
  • CreditFigaro
    • +3
      CreditFigaro  
    • Buddha2112:

      Nahh, we down vote lies and inaccurate understandings of the world around us and the nuanced realities of how the government works. If you submit a fact, expect it to get checked or criticized. If you are right, then you win.

      You are just bitter because you don't win.

      The saddest part is, ignorance causes us all to lose.

    • 9 months ago
  • joynoel
    • +1
      joynoel  
    • Warren_Merrill:

      ACORN didn't recieve stimulus funds. ACORN was a community activist program thatencouraged people who otherwise would not have voted to vote. They provided education to low income people and afforded them the opportunity to register to vote. End of story. The fact that most low income people are black and presumed to add to the Democratic vote is what frightened the Republicans, who dishonestly portrayed this organization and strategized its downfall. Now that we know all of the allegations were lies, purposeful lies, I believe that ACORN should be reestablished and funded from the GOP. Why hasn't anyone sued the Republican party over this and called for civil reparations for the destruction of this lawful agency?

    • 9 months ago
  • moodyblue
  • Warren_Merrill
  • Warren_Merrill
  • CreditFigaro
  • wynnmeg61
    • +13
      wynnmeg61  
    • Of course it worked. The moneyed and GOP just don't want Obama or his administration to get any credit for any thing what-so-ever period the end. They will tell every filthy lie they can, and frankly their strategy has worked very very well. Think of all the Progressives out there using the GOP talking points

    • 9 months ago
  • VoyagerFilms
    • +2
      VoyagerFilms  
    • wynnmeg61:

      You are right, the GOP and all it's billions of dollars aided and abetted largely by corporate media have buffaloed a good percentage of the American public. The best counter measure is being vocal - and keep it up. Even deaf ears hear eventually.

    • 9 months ago
  • JohnA
    • -4
      JohnA  
    • wynnmeg61:

      Of couse it worked, unemployment is at 9.9% (with government adjustments). It would have been at 10% (with government adjustments) without it. A fantastic success!

      Sarcasm intended.

    • 9 months ago
  • regroce
  • JohnA
  • CreditFigaro
  • joynoel
    • +1
      joynoel  
    • JohnA:

      You know, JohnA, it was the Republican agenda and the misuse of the American people for profit that got us into this mess. They didn't do that over night they did it over the course of Bush's eight years in office. It started directly after he got in to office, as his firs act was to double his pay. Now you all point at Obama and want the mess cleaned up immediately, so it looks to me like not much has changed since the times of slavery: Rich white men messes up, calls in the blacks to clean, get pissed off that it takes longer than a minute and whip the black man, calling him lazy and useless. Where did this mess come from? Greed and corruption of our government. When did it happen? During the Bush years. Stop your whining and get in on the clean up, your pocket has been and will continue to be picked by the Republicans that you continue to support. Stop blaming the victims and join in the effort to rebuild this country.

    • 9 months ago
  • JohnA
    • -3
      JohnA  
    • joynoel:

      The race card, finally, what took so long. I usually get called a racist much sooner than this. I love it, it means the other side has run out of valid arguements. Good day to you.

    • 9 months ago
  • joynoel
    • +1
      joynoel  
    • JohnA:

      Hello, I am white!!! I don't have a race card to play. Neener Neener. So explain this in a non racist way. What is your exact problem with the efforts of the Democratic Party to save this economy that was run down by your Republican Party. Every proposal that would make an impact to save us is run into the ground by the Republicans. Why? Can you say that they honestly are working for the good of their constituents, you know, the people who live in the states that they are supposed to be representing?

    • 9 months ago
  • JohnA
    • -1
      JohnA  
    • joynoel:

      Not my Republican Party, I voted for Hillary. Tried to tell people, but no one ever listens to me so look what we have, he makes Jimmy Carter look like Harry Truman.

    • 9 months ago
  • TrishR
    • +13
      TrishR  
    • Just the fact that Michele Bachmann spends so much time claiming it didn't work at all made me suspicious that it did...

    • 9 months ago
  • artemis6
  • EdJoyProductions
  • VoyagerFilms
  • JohnA
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