http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-irene-ma...

Hurricane Irene now category 3, could go to category 4.

"Swirling through the southeast Bahamas, Hurricane Irene has intensified this morning, reaching major category 3 status, with peak sustained winds of 115 mph. Hurricane warnings continue for all of the Bahamas where 6-12 inches of rain are expected in addition to punishing, hurricane force winds. A potentially devastating storm surge of 7-11 feet is possible in areas with onshore winds near the center of Irene.

NOAA track forecast

Irene is headed northwest at 12 mph towards the East Coast, but the latest guidance has continued to trend eastward, more offshore, and a direct strike on North Carolina’s shore, while possible, is not a sure thing. Similarly, a direct hit is still plausible for southern New England, but not a certainty.

Irrespective of whether the storm makes a direct hit at particular coastal locations from North Carolina to New England, significant impacts are quite possible including torrential rain, coastal flooding and damaging winds.

Irene’s current presentation

Irene exhibits an unmistakably visible eye surrounded by very tall thunderstorms on satellite imagery. Ingestion of dry air and some wind shear probably adversely affected Irene’s health last night and may be to some degree right now, but strengthening has resumed. Further intensification is expected as it continues to move over 85+F water and effectively fends off the environmental resistance. The storm may well reach category 4 levels with peak winds near 135 mph in the next couple days according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Track forecast

Theevast majority of the model forecasts for Irene have shifted eastward quite drastically in recent days.

South of North Carolina

It is no longer likely Irene will make landfall south of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This should give breezy and hot weather for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina as the week draws to a close. With an outside chance for a tropical-storm strength wind gust in a rain shower along the immediate shoreline anywhere south of say, Myrtle Beach, SC, I would expect folks along this part of the U.S. Atlantic Coast to see a canopy of cirrus outriders from Irene overhead or just off to their east. The ocean will be rough, no doubt, with rip currents a serious risk. But the dangerous part of Irene will very likely remain way offshore … 100-200 miles at least.

North Carolina to the Jersey Shore

As Irene moves poleward from there over the weekend, from the latitudes of the North Carolina coast to those of the Jersey Shore, the spread in the track guidance increases and the forecast obviously gets more difficult.

The greater uncertainty at these lead times makes outlining potential impacts a complicated and potentially misleading exercise. One can not forget that the average four-day track error is on the scale of the storm itself. And this is not even accounting for the intensity errors and size miscalculations that also play a critical role in determining who gets what kind of weather.

But still, the collection of possible tracks offered by both the global weather-prediction systems and the specific hurricane models are sending a message. And that is the core of Irene, in whatever health it’s in by the time it reaches those relatively northern locales, may graze the eastern tip of the Outer Banks on Saturday evening at its closest Mid-Atlantic approach. For the record, the NHC official forecast projects an intensity of roughly 125 mph as it nears the Outer Banks Saturday evening,"
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This is no joke.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

More on its current path and severity.