A Pictorial Review of the Weakest Recovery since the Great Depression
source: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/2011/09/16/a-pictorial-review-of-th...
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http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/2011/09/16/a...
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official institution that dates recessions in the U.S., and on September 2010 they declared the recession that began in December 2007 officially ended on June 2009 and that a new expansion had begun. Despite the economy staging a decent bounce off lows in early 2009, one of the more notable members of the NBER business cycle dating committee, Martin Feldstein, was the main holdout for calling an end to the recession. The main reason was he didn’t think the recovery would take economic activity to new highs before another downturn would hit.With the economy rolling over and at risk of moving into another recession, it looks like Mr. Feldstein’s original judgment has proven correct as most indicators of economic activity failed to exceed prior peaks. Thus, it is a fair argument to suggest the recession never ended and should be labeled “The Second Great Contraction,” with the first being the Great Recession. A pictorial review below shows what a feeble recovery this has been, particularly with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
What Recovery?
Shown in the images to follow is the average recovery in various economic measures normalized to 100 at their peak versus time (months), and a figure showing the actual number of months it took to exceed the peak for past recoveries. First up is gross domestic product or GDP.
As most people know, the broadest measure of economic activity is GDP. Shown below is data going back to WW II with the average recovery taking 13.5 months to exceed its former peak. You can see that the recovery this time from the December 2007 peak has failed to exceed its former high after 42 months and still counting......
Many examples and charts at:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/2011/09/16/a-pictorial-...
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Schnookums
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Basically all we've had is a statistical recovery, not an actual recovery. If you aren't in the top 20% of income earners, the 2007 recession never ended.
- 1 year ago
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Schnookums
