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Gaza: Ceasefire Conditions And Interests
1.No hostile fire of any kind to come from Gaza into Israel including smalls arms fire at Israeli troops near the border
2.Hamas fighters must be stopped from traveling to the Sinai to carry out attacks against Israel at the Sinai/Israel border
3.Hamas must not be able to rearm - International and regional actors needed for this
4.A ceasefire must not simple be a "time-out" for Hamas, it must be an extended period of quiet for Southern Israel
Israel wants Egypt to play a "key role" in this, guaranteeing the points 2 and 3. That is just another of many attempt of dumping its Gaza problem onto Egypt. Morsi would be crazy to agree to that. There will thereby be no guarantees.
According to an U.S. official Israel also wants the Hamas official "in charge of guns" in Gaza to guarantee the ceasefire. That is a great idea but Israel killed the most able guy, Ahmed al-Jaabari, capable of not only controlling Hamas but also the other fighting groups, right at the beginning of its new war on Gaza. That has significantly reduced the chances for a long term ceasefire. There will be promises from other groups to hold fire but there can again be no guarantees.
Hamas has, of course, also demands. It wants guarantees that:
1.Israel stops its bombardments
2.promises not to enter Gaza
3.ends targeted assassinations and
4.lifts its economic blockade of the Gaza strip
Whatever the outcome no one, not even the U.S, could guarantee Israel's promises and Hamas certainly knows that Israeli promises are usually not worth the paper they are written on.
But these are now the opening position to what looks likely to become protracted negotiations.
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