Obama's Peace Trip to Kabul? - PART 1
To understand fully the ramifications of the American president Obama's recent surprise peace visit to Kabul, it is first essential to understand the positions of the 6 key players involved in the current Afghan conundrum: the USA, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, China, India and the Taliban as follows:
•1. The American Position:
With the Obama Administration firmly in the place after one year in the office in Washington after two successive wins for Obama in the last 10 days in terms of the successful historic health insurance reform bill and the conclusion of nuclear-disarmament talks with Russia, one can notice clearly the enhanced enthusiasm amongst its key players including Obama himself as reflected in Obama' recent surprise visit to Kabul for the war update.
Obama is said to have told Hamid Karzai, the current Afghan president to make progress on things like a merit-based system for appointment of key government officials, battling the corruption, taking the fight to the narco-traffickers, which fuels and provides a lot of economic engine for the insurgents.
The current Afghan visit by Obama seems to be a conscious continuous part of the foreign policy of Obama, aimed at breaking up sharply from the Bush-era of mutual distrust and suspicion with respect to the Muslim world.
Simultaneously, Obama intends ensuring the full security of the American interests without letting the Anti-American interests gain the upper hand amongst the world Muslim population, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's why he hasn't pulled out the American troops from Afghanistan and instead has permitted to let the number of the American troops increase by 30,000 to a grand total of 100,000 by the end of the year 2010 in Afghanistan in addition to more than 40,000 troops from other NATO members.
•2. The Saudi Arabian Position:
The Saudi Arabian government must use its good offices with Pakistan to convince and persuade the later to desist from creating a political mess in terms of encouraging the certain Taliban elements [Pak or Afghan] to keep fighting against the coalition forces, especially when a totally Peace-Oriented statesperson like Obama is in command of the Presidency at the White House.
The Saudi Arabia must use its all political capital to dissuade all the Talibani elements from getting into fight with the coalition forces in Kandhar, the southern Afghan province, where a bigger fight than that took place in Marja, Helmand is said to be looming large.
•3. The Pakistani Position:
The Pakistani Establishment's temptation to try to use the Taliban card to gain the strategic depth in Afghanistan is quite misplaced. Assuming that Pakistan gets the full handle in Afghanistan, what shall Pakistan then gain? Will it then try to use that handle as a launching pad to influence, colonize or destabilize the other central Asian nation-States including Afghanistan itself? Will it then try to help China get a land route to the Indian Ocean through the Afghanistan-Pakistan land corridor?
Let us examine critically all these questions one by one:
1. Pakistan cannot use Afghanistan as a launching pad, as it'll be biting more than its capacity to chew, leading to the draining out of the economic resources of an already weakened- Pakistan. Russia has become wary of the Cyclonic Pak-Afghan political boundary. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is quoted to have said in the aftermath of the recent twin suicide blast at Moscow subway stations killing at least 39 people, that Moscow "is well informed about the so-called no-man's land on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan," where "the terrorist underground has entrenched itself."
2. Already, Pakistan is increasingly finding it difficult to handle divisive tendencies in Sindh and the North West Frontier Province. The Occupation of Afghanistan shall only mean opening up the unknown Pandora box containing the sure recipe for full disintegration of Pakistan. Moreover, even China may find the Pakistani presence in Afghanistan increasingly harmful to the Chinese interests in terms of the then increased propensity of the Muslim extremists to use Afghanistan to foment trouble in Chinese areas like Uighur,etc.
3. Trying to get China a land passage to the Indian Ocean shall only disturb the international political equilibrium and inevitably invite the wrath of the White House which in turn would lead to drying up of the much needed and valuable irreplaceable diverse aid from the USA.
Of course, It is not to deny the Pakistan Foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's perceptibly correct claim that Pakistan has more stake in war-torn Afghanistan, than India. This claim seems to be true in view of the facts of Pakistan having a troublesome, long, porous, cyclonic political boundary inhabited on both sides by Muslims with Afghanistan in the north, unlike India.This phenomenon may best be understood from the term ‘Conjoined brothers' used by Hamid Karzai to describe Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If the Pakistan's intention behind using the Taliban card was to try to extract whatever possible from the USA, the intention has already been carried out with the Obama Administration having committed abundant and sufficient help to Pakistan barring the Nuke-deal, during Quereshi's recent visit to Washington despite the Pakistani Establishment's inability to create a favorable view of the USA amongst a majority of the Pakistani population.
Beyond this, Washington is unlikely to be forced into giving more concessions to Pakistan. The erstwhile USSR is no more present in Afghanistan as an excuse to try to get military-financial aid from the USA. Any further attempts by Pakistan to use the Taliban card in any ways to get more shall only in all likelihood risk the delicate elastic thread of the friendship binding the White House and the Pakistani Establishment.
•1. The American Position:
With the Obama Administration firmly in the place after one year in the office in Washington after two successive wins for Obama in the last 10 days in terms of the successful historic health insurance reform bill and the conclusion of nuclear-disarmament talks with Russia, one can notice clearly the enhanced enthusiasm amongst its key players including Obama himself as reflected in Obama' recent surprise visit to Kabul for the war update.
Obama is said to have told Hamid Karzai, the current Afghan president to make progress on things like a merit-based system for appointment of key government officials, battling the corruption, taking the fight to the narco-traffickers, which fuels and provides a lot of economic engine for the insurgents.
The current Afghan visit by Obama seems to be a conscious continuous part of the foreign policy of Obama, aimed at breaking up sharply from the Bush-era of mutual distrust and suspicion with respect to the Muslim world.
Simultaneously, Obama intends ensuring the full security of the American interests without letting the Anti-American interests gain the upper hand amongst the world Muslim population, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's why he hasn't pulled out the American troops from Afghanistan and instead has permitted to let the number of the American troops increase by 30,000 to a grand total of 100,000 by the end of the year 2010 in Afghanistan in addition to more than 40,000 troops from other NATO members.
•2. The Saudi Arabian Position:
The Saudi Arabian government must use its good offices with Pakistan to convince and persuade the later to desist from creating a political mess in terms of encouraging the certain Taliban elements [Pak or Afghan] to keep fighting against the coalition forces, especially when a totally Peace-Oriented statesperson like Obama is in command of the Presidency at the White House.
The Saudi Arabia must use its all political capital to dissuade all the Talibani elements from getting into fight with the coalition forces in Kandhar, the southern Afghan province, where a bigger fight than that took place in Marja, Helmand is said to be looming large.
•3. The Pakistani Position:
The Pakistani Establishment's temptation to try to use the Taliban card to gain the strategic depth in Afghanistan is quite misplaced. Assuming that Pakistan gets the full handle in Afghanistan, what shall Pakistan then gain? Will it then try to use that handle as a launching pad to influence, colonize or destabilize the other central Asian nation-States including Afghanistan itself? Will it then try to help China get a land route to the Indian Ocean through the Afghanistan-Pakistan land corridor?
Let us examine critically all these questions one by one:
1. Pakistan cannot use Afghanistan as a launching pad, as it'll be biting more than its capacity to chew, leading to the draining out of the economic resources of an already weakened- Pakistan. Russia has become wary of the Cyclonic Pak-Afghan political boundary. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is quoted to have said in the aftermath of the recent twin suicide blast at Moscow subway stations killing at least 39 people, that Moscow "is well informed about the so-called no-man's land on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan," where "the terrorist underground has entrenched itself."
2. Already, Pakistan is increasingly finding it difficult to handle divisive tendencies in Sindh and the North West Frontier Province. The Occupation of Afghanistan shall only mean opening up the unknown Pandora box containing the sure recipe for full disintegration of Pakistan. Moreover, even China may find the Pakistani presence in Afghanistan increasingly harmful to the Chinese interests in terms of the then increased propensity of the Muslim extremists to use Afghanistan to foment trouble in Chinese areas like Uighur,etc.
3. Trying to get China a land passage to the Indian Ocean shall only disturb the international political equilibrium and inevitably invite the wrath of the White House which in turn would lead to drying up of the much needed and valuable irreplaceable diverse aid from the USA.
Of course, It is not to deny the Pakistan Foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's perceptibly correct claim that Pakistan has more stake in war-torn Afghanistan, than India. This claim seems to be true in view of the facts of Pakistan having a troublesome, long, porous, cyclonic political boundary inhabited on both sides by Muslims with Afghanistan in the north, unlike India.This phenomenon may best be understood from the term ‘Conjoined brothers' used by Hamid Karzai to describe Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If the Pakistan's intention behind using the Taliban card was to try to extract whatever possible from the USA, the intention has already been carried out with the Obama Administration having committed abundant and sufficient help to Pakistan barring the Nuke-deal, during Quereshi's recent visit to Washington despite the Pakistani Establishment's inability to create a favorable view of the USA amongst a majority of the Pakistani population.
Beyond this, Washington is unlikely to be forced into giving more concessions to Pakistan. The erstwhile USSR is no more present in Afghanistan as an excuse to try to get military-financial aid from the USA. Any further attempts by Pakistan to use the Taliban card in any ways to get more shall only in all likelihood risk the delicate elastic thread of the friendship binding the White House and the Pakistani Establishment.
