Green | November 03, 2008 | 23 comments

Drought land “will be abandoned”

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MeganMcKenzie
Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, warned

Unchecked climate change will mean that some parts of the world will simply not have enough water to sustain settlements both small and large, because agriculture becomes untenable and industries relying on water can no longer compete or function effectively. This will trigger structural changes in economies right through to the displacement of people as environmental refugees.

While deniers continue trying to confuse the issue by arguing that we don’t know that our current climate is the ideal one, the drought and sea level rise issue render that argument tragically moot.

Humanity has developed around the climate of the last 10,000 years, a climate that has been remarkably stable (see “Must have PPT #1: The narrow temperature window that gave us modern human civilization” — and yes I will restart my “must-have PowerPoints” series after the election).

Any significantly different climate — let alone the devastating 5+°C climate we are risking on our current path — means hundreds of millions of environmental refugees. Unfortunately, with more than 6 billion people on the planet and the livable parts of the world poised to shrink by a third this century, the likelihood of conflict is enormous.

One odd thing about Steiner’s comments:

Steiner said it was not possible to identify specific places at risk, but said vulnerable areas were those which were already considered to be ‘water scarce’ because of dry weather and a lack of infrastructure to store and transport water

Actually it is quite possible to identify specific places at risk. The most threatened places are

1. Regions that get a significant fraction of their water from inland glaciers
2. The subtropics.

Indeed, climate change theory is quite specific that the subtropical deserts will expand from unchecked global warming. And that will be the subject of a (very) forthcoming “must have PowerPoint.”
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23 comments // Drought land “will be abandoned”

  • Denica_Cassandra
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  
    • extremepain

      The Oglala Aquifer is exactly what I was thinking about.

      It is heavily polluted and depleted. Where will the extra water come from if it's not piped in from the coast? And the entire sun belt - where does anyone imagine their water supply will come from? This is not the time for hand-wringing and hope - the Oglala underlies and feeds America's breadbasket. The south generates enormous wealth. So we're expected to do what? Move everyone north to Washington State?

      A huge part of the problem In the Pacific Northwest is deforestation of watersheds. This has been a disaster, resulting in more frequent landslides. Water which percolates down from the mountain ranges was normally filtered over several years by the watershed itself, it's now heavily silted and polluted.

      To me at least and it looks like to you to it would be absolutely insane to say well sure, sea levels are rising, but we're running out of water and NOT connect the dots.

    • 3 years ago
  • extremepain
  • extremepain
    • 0
      extremepain  
    • desertcat- Those rains are likely fueling the Oglala Aquifer, the huge underground lake that is largely central, but not symmetric by any means. Generally all the water that falls to Earth either evaporates or drains into rivers, lakes and underground aquifers.

      If you think of it, there is very little less water on the Earth now than there was since we've had oceans. Some water evaporates into space, but not much at all. After that the only water to escape Earth is any that space missions may release.

      The issue isn't how much water, but how many there are to share it, and what state does it exist in?, salinated, frozen, vapor, polluted or readily available? Then it's down to what technologies we can employ to extract more water, likely by desalination, to better fill the needs going forward.
      And besides...if the seas are rising, someone should operate the bilge pump anyway, shouldn't they?

    • 3 years ago
  • desertcat
    • 0
      desertcat  
    • i know this may sound silly but why can't we build underground tanks and pipes in areas where it rains a lot to collect the water and use in areas where it does not. where I live it rains so much that i never have to water my outside plants. the majority seeps into the ground but there is run off that overflows lakes, rivers and streams. In some states it may rain three days and 100 miles away no rain for months. This could be a source for parks and other areas where forest fires occur. It just doesn't make sense to bring in new inventions when something can be applied. I keep a barrel outside to collect rain water for when it is dried and put it out in the woods for the wildlife. Keeps the snakes away and cost nothing to help the animals.

    • 3 years ago
  • SeaJade
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  
    • desertcat:

      Building underwater reservoirs is a brilliant idea. Catchments, rain barrels, ponds, that's how our ancestors survived this country.

      Why do we let flood water run off from areas that a year later are in drought and watching their crops fail?

      With vast underwater reservoirs we'll do what we should do - conserve nature's bounty.

      As to those places which are more likely to see far less rainfall than is necessary for the population to survive - three basic choices

      1/ relocate a population to compensate for water scarcity.

      2/ steal water from somewhere else - and somewhere else then suffers.

      3/ rig the same technology used to pipe oil to move desalinated sea water (not to small communities but large cities needing massive amounts of water) to ensure urban coastal survival.

    • 3 years ago
  • nufsenuf
    • 0
      nufsenuf  
    • Will, you are right, Mother will survive, she always has. What's in question at this point, is will we??!! And further, do we deserve to? I guess that's the big question!

    • 3 years ago
  • Virtual_Will_Rogers
    • 0
      Virtual_Will_Rogers  
    • nufsenuf:

      ...nufsenuf.....there is no death or survival....only rearrangement....that is why when you have a container that is aware....enjoy it...it is only the luck of the draw....and it does not get better than Earth at this time...with just enough time to think yourself into a chasm and the ability to communicate with others all around this marvelous planet...the Big question has to deal with the problem that humans are not important...someone told them they were and they believed them.....and the really sad part is that some deserve everything...while others deserve nothing.....and again it is mostly just the luck of the draw....how well you picked your parents...Will

    • 3 years ago
  • pakazak
    • 0
      pakazak  
    • rule 1: people won't change until they see a need to change.
      this has been true of environment issues as well since long before i became 'aware' in the 70's.
      right now we seem to be on the beginning of the upward climb to sustainable/renewable energy.
      if and when we are able to convince our neighbors that all of humanity needs to be considered in the decisions we make will determine how quickly we mature as a civilization.
      for future generations, let's hope we do a good job.

    • 3 years ago
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  
    • pakazak:

      Agreed.

      Necessity, especially the disadvantageous connection between fossil fuels, pollution, and rising costs of ill health..

      Plus the scarcity of fossil fuels, and economic decline, social and political instability, military weakness, commodity and transportation prices run completely amok - will force the kinds of decisions our pols have been extremely reluctant to make.

      What point is there in having a business when your product is too costly to ship? Exports? Forget it.

      Choosing between keeping the military going at readiness levels or turning into some North American third world junta with mass poverty? South America has said resoundingly - no more.

      In every way economic survival points to the necessity of green alternatives and innovation.

      While other nations catch on, like Brazil with sugar-based ethanol, and move ahead of us we ignore innovation entirely at our peril.

      It isn't a matter any more of arguing academic perceptions - it is a matter of seizing advantages to help us survive.

    • 3 years ago
  • Virtual_Will_Rogers
    • 0
      Virtual_Will_Rogers  
    • ...Human beings have been nomadic for most of the time...everytime they have colonized this planet....please try to realize how many layers of different civilizations you walk upon daily....they did not labor under the false ideal that they owned anything...they paid no taxes....Animals...can you believe it....when hot they migrated to a cooler climate....and vice versa.....the main problem is that humans have lost all their animal instincts...probably from wrapping themselves too tightly...in cotton and in trying to control everything....remember that this planet races through the universe everyday....and realize that you are very lucky to be part of the greatest show...not only on Earth...but in the Universe....and try to enjoy it and prolong it as best you can...Earth is like a dog...and humans are like fleas...you will get shaken off sooner or later....and too many fleas will kill the dog.......Golden Ruler..Will...

    • 3 years ago
  • nufsenuf
    • 0
      nufsenuf  
    • If we do not come together, put aside political and partisan allegiance, and once and for all, just start being human/humane, it's over! I don't really care where you live, or what you believe - what i know, is that when there is no water for you to drink, and no water for irrigation of crops, or for basic services , like being able to flush your toilet, we are in deep, deep kemshi! This discussion is MOOT!! Something must be done - this is happening -wake up this is our 'NOW"

    • 3 years ago
  • nufsenuf
    • 0
      nufsenuf  
    • Why, indeed!!?? We need a global paradigm shift, and we need it NOW! Water will become the oil of tomorrow - the difference is..... we can live without oil, we cannot live without water! Think about it!! Do something!!

    • 3 years ago
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  
    • Thank you SeaJade!

      Further proof - it's time to abandon the agribiz model of throttling innovation purely on their own behalf.

      The video above is but one example of what can be done without slavery to biotech and agribiz oligarchies.

      In it's simplicity this is Applied Science at its very best. The team that greened this patch of desert together deserves research grants and passports to enable them to send out teams all over the earth.

      If "We could regreen the middle east." with seasonal temperatures climbing above 50C where wouldn't this simple procedure work?
      Why aren't more people aware of these innovations?

      GOOD QUESTION!

      Pls advise...

    • 3 years ago
  • SeaJade
    • 0
      SeaJade  
    • A five minute video on permaculture, briefly demonstrating what they were able to grow in the desert. Worth the watch.

    • 3 years ago
  • AveryMoore
    • 0
      AveryMoore  
    • Two agendas necessary.

      1/ Cut the crap and the arguing over "consensus", and drastically curb the use and release of ALL pollutants.

      2/ Do what the rest of the world is already doing - stop with the bullshit excuses and build a pipelined infrastructure to feed the southern and farm-belt US with desalinated ocean water. The technology is already in use elsewhere.

      Or should we just continue to poison ourselves, our kids, our environment and finally on the very last day remember that without water our life expectancy is 3 days?

      They can grow things now in deserts but not here? It's a choice not a conjecture.

    • 3 years ago
  • futuregen
    • 0
      futuregen  
    • Above interview excerpts continued:

      If you double one percent seven more times, then you get 100 percent. And that`s what happened. And it`s actually continued since the end of the genome project. And if you look at the curves, it`s very smooth exponential growth. Every aspect of our biological science is following that kind of pattern.

      BECK: So where are we on the -- because the secret is to get to one, right? To get to one percent, because then it is 2, and then it`s 4, right?

      KURZWEIL: Well, we are actually now about one percent on these renewables of solar and wind. And it`s doubling every two years. So we are only seven doublings, which is 14 years, away from 100 percent. And that will - - that will continue.

      We are also at that kind of stage in terms of our biological technologies. We have the means of reprogramming our genes. We can turn them on. We can turn them off. We can simulate biological processes. So all of these things are progressing at this exponential rate.

      BECK: What is the -- do you believe in hydrogen power? Do you believe in -- are you just solar? Or do you think we need a little of this, we need a little of this, we need a little of this?

      KURZWEIL: Well, I think we can make a very strong case that solar alone will meet the bill. And we have 10,000 times more sunlight than we need. We also need...

      BECK: Is that planet-wise or country-wise?

      KURZWEIL: That`s planet-wise. But actually, if we devoted one small fraction of a percent of the deserts that are now unused in the United States to solar farms with the new technologies that will emerge in five or six years, we could meet all of our energy needs. You also need storage technologies, and that is also coming with nanotechnology. And some of that gives us hydrogen.

      BECK: How come we are not hearing about this? I mean, there is nobody -- I`ve talked to...

      KURZWEIL: Well, venture capitalists are aware of it. In fact, Al Gore actually belongs now to Kleiner Perkins, which is investing billions of dollars in these kinds of technologies. So he has heard of it by now...

      BECK: Yes.

      KURZWEIL: ... because there are investments going in these new technologies.

      BECK: Here`s the thing. All of our -- all of our leaders are -- they seem to be blocking everything, every step of the way. And there doesn`t seem to be anybody who is articulating a grand vision.

      There is -- I`m looking for the president who is going to say, OK, peak oil, no peak oil. It doesn`t matter. We`re going to do this, we`re going to this, and we are going to have a moon shot. If you say...

      KURZWEIL: The science is the same. We just had a National Science Foundation, National Academy of Engineering blue ribbon panel with Larry Page and Dean Kamen, and Craig Benter (ph) and myself, we came out with this plan to replace fossil fuels within 20 years with solar energy and store it in nano-engineered fuel cells. And we also came out with some other ideas to overcome disease by reprogramming our biochemistry through biotechnology and move towards virtual reality and a few other things.

    • 3 years ago
  • futuregen
    • 0
      futuregen  
    • Image
    • Turn lemons into lemonaide with nano-engineered solar panels.

      Excerpts from Glen Beck interview with Ray Kurzweil 05/30/08:

      KURZWEIL: Well, I am not a fan of fossil fuels, but it`s not primarily because of global warming> It`s really these other forms of pollution in the extraction and shipment of fossil fuels, and burning it and so on.

      BECK: OK.

      KURZWEIL: And also, it has geopolitical effects.

      BECK: Oh, yes. It`s a nightmare.

      KURZWEIL: And it`s expensive. So, it is very easy to dismiss technologies when they`re at the early part of the exponential.

      We are doubling the amount of solar energy every two years. We`re only seven doublings away from it meeting 100 percent of our energy needs.

      You might say, do we really have enough sunlight? The answer is we have 10,000 times more than we need.

      BECK: But you know...

      KURZWEIL: If we captured one part in 10,000 of the sunlight, we would meet all of our energy needs. And we will be able to do that with these new nano-engineered solar panels.

      BECK: All right. So tell me how this works. Because where is Mike? Mike is behind camera one here.

      How much was it, Mike, $68,000?

      Sixty-eight -- Mike has got a house. He just tried to -- you know, how do I outfit for solar panels? Sixty-eight thousand dollars...

      KURZWEIL: Yes. Well...

      BECK: ... to do it.

      KURZWEIL: Solar panels are still an old industrial technology. There is billions of dollars of venture capital going into a new generation of nano- engineered solar panels that are much more efficient.

      And I just worked on this actually with Larry Page of Google, on a National Academy of Engineering blue ribbon panel, and we came up with a plan. We believe we are less than five years away from a tipping point where the cost per watt from solar energy will be less than the cost per watt from coal and oil. So then even if you don`t care about any of the environmental effects, it`s just the economic incentives will be there to switch over from fossil fuel.

      KURZWEIL: Singularity is a pretty profound transformation. So, if people believe that there is something profound coming, that that would fit the bill. But it is going to come from our technology, which it is going to explode exponentially.

      Exponential growth is explosive. People think linearly, one, two, three, and 30 steps later you`re 30. But the reality of information technology is it`s going 2, 4, 8, 16, and 30 steps later you are at a billion. So this exponential growth of computers and communications and also technologies like solar energy is going to ultimately be very explosive.

    • 3 years ago
  • MeganMcKenzie
    • 0
      MeganMcKenzie  
    • I have been impressed with what has been happening with the Great Lakes. We need to have a global strategy, a national strategy and a local one.

    • 3 years ago
  • nufsenuf
    • 0
      nufsenuf  
    • In the mid-west, we have the benefit of the Great Lakes as a major, fresh water resource and recently there was legislation passed to restrict the diverting of Great Lakes water to other areas, as there is already need and diminishing fresh water supplies in many states. NC had bans on watering, etc this summer, and I believe that GA also had significant drought. If steps are not taken to halt the head-long rush to destruction that global warming promises, we will see wars over water, instead of oil - a far more alarming and deadly proposition.

    • 3 years ago
  • Denica_Cassandra
    • 0
      Denica_Cassandra  
    • nufsenuf:

      That happened where I was born as well, near Mammoth Lakes, CA! They were taking all the water for LA! Rich populated areas are always looking for more water @ the cost of smaller communities. Now with less water available, the smaller communities may not have any more of it! ;)

    • 3 years ago
  • MeganMcKenzie
    • 0
      MeganMcKenzie  
    • What is happening with this land will be a story of what will happen to USA's land if we do not all work towards curbing use of fossil fuels. Drought and salt water incursion is our future unless we choose to make it otherwise. What are you willing to do?

      I am intending to devote all my energy and focus on employment towards awareness of climate change and the steps we need to take to change our consumption and energy use.

      Larger than this struggle for electing a president is the immediate necessity of changing our consumption habits and making our economy and work force a green one.

      If one believes in the ability to change than it is possible. Look at Obama. He believed he could become president and he has millions who believe as well.

      Climate change is real and we are in dire peril.

    • 3 years ago
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