GKSS scientists refute argument of climate skeptics

Great post Jan-

The people that say there's no harm done are either in fear of facing the facts or too damn greedy to care.

The rest of us have to make up for their idiocy by doing EVERYTHING WE CAN.

There are tons of sites out there with info and ideas, so please, heed them, and do what you can!

WE HAVE ONLY ONE CHANCE

Climate, climate, climate!!! The change in global temperature is only PART of the environmental concerns. It's good to scare the skeptics,... but we need to focus on everything. We have to stop making it seem like a climate crisis will be the only consequence. Enter: species extinction, disease, a radioactive future, a weak atmosphere, poisoned seas, vanishing food supplies, hollow land, outer-space debris, un-natural selection, ongoing over-population, depleted natural resources, constant pollution, gluttony, greed, et cetera, ad infinitum, ad astra.
But the fundamental problem is the lack of education about our destructive present and our potentially lost future.
The climate isn't our concern,... the whole planet is!

If WE all do our part to reduce greenhouse gasses and other forms of pollution WE can turn this thing around...

Think about it... there BILLIONS of I's making up the concept of WE... The industrialized nations are still dumping millions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere every day... The Hybrid car is unaffordable by most people who depend on the automobile for daily transportation and they still burn fossil feuls. Whatever happened to Hydrogen powered vehicles?...

Wind farms are an absolute necessity yet in our area there is resistance to wind farms because they are noisey and unpleasing to the eye... how absurd...

WE... are the earths and our own worst enemy...

The seeds of OUR destruction were sown at the beginning of the industrial revolution and the fruit of our labors is the destruction of the environment.

Hang on... It's going to be a hell of a ride...

Agreed. While we cannot control everything about the Earth, we surely can be the masters of our own destiny living here in ways that will now heal it instead of destroying it.

We have the great responsibility to slow things down no matter what we can imagine coming along the pike. If we do nothing, future generations will have nothing. And we are great innovators; we should use this innovation towards the greatest challenge of our time: climate change, instead of creating fictitious diseases to sell pharma, or creating fictitious money to inflate the market...the world is literally at stake if we wish to inhabit it.

Well, I do believe there is great change coming. The question is what role will the human species play in how bad or good that change is? I don't think it is the end quite yet. We still have a chance to at the very least to slow down the most catastrophic effects of climate change by not exacerbating it as we currently are. What we are experiencing now is due to the past hundred or more years of burning fossil fuels, cutting down trees, and generally not being too concerned with the consequences of it. What we do today is affecting the future so if we truly care about that future and have learned from the past, we need to walk a bit more lightly upon this Earth.

The end is at hand... The damage we have done to the environment is irreversable... We will see things in the near future that have never been seen by modern man... It is a most exciting and challanging time to be alive...

Climate change will definitely be gored (ha ha) on the 'sociological mind' so to speak with Obama's administration. Perhaps this wild u-turn will arouse the American tendency to embrace revolutionary things. Without the violence. Hmmm....now wait...what am I saying?

I am sure Obama will stick to his 80% emission cuts by 2050, and that isn't good enough now. It has to be US that continues to tell him it isn't good enough. Relying on politicians alone to solve this (if it is even totally solvable at this point with the Arctic already reaching a tipping point) will doom us all. We've been waiting thirty years for action and only now that it appears we are approaching 400ppm in the next few years at the current pace of Co2 output do they think something needs to be done? It isn't going to be done in time with the current emissions plans and platform put forth. We need 100% renewable energy in a decade besides all of us doing all we can to get it done, and we need all countries to commit to doing it as well as helping those developing countries that need help in adapting. It is only fair that those countries that emit the most help those who emit the least and are experiencing the most devastating effects of our behavior... which are poor nations.

I'm not a scientist so I can't explain about global warming but Al Gore discovered that out of 1000 scientist 980 believe the data about global warming and that's good enough for me.

im sure obama will do somthin

Senator Kerry was commenting with Senator Clinton, now appointed to Secretary of State this morning about the various aspects of clime change by vehicle emissions and forest devastation and seems like US cannot just continue doing business as usual any longer. So I am optimist about changing the current denial to a more pro-action posture.

Not sure but maybe these guys might have some say come January 20th - worth a look

http://www.greeneconomynetwork.org

Bob Williamson
Greenhouse Neutral Foundation
www.strategicbookpublishing.com/ZEROGreenhouseEmissions.html

Yes, we really need to get moving in that direction. I wait to see what happens after January 20th.

Glad you're keeping these stats in the posts, Jan.
Perhaps the naysayers will one day realize the truth of it.
Ya can't convince them all, but maybe you can make them think a little more about what they, as an idividual, can do.
It starts with one person.

I hear you.

Some nut on twitter this morning suggested that where he is in Toronto it's cold. So he suggested theat for there at least global wanrming was a myth. !!!!
You can just imagine my response.
Unless we wake up soon - well you know my response to that as well

Bob W
Still shouting but mostly into deaf ears.

From the article:

Scientists at the GKSS Research Centre of Geesthacht and the University of Bern have investigated the frequency of warmer than average years between 1880 and 2006 for the first time. The result: the observed increase of warm years after 1990 is not a statistical accident. The results will now be published in the journal "Geophysical Research Letters".

Between 1880 and 2006 the average global annual temperature was about 15 degrees C. However, in the years after 1990 the frequency of years when this average value was exceeded increased.

The GKSS Research Centre asks: is it an accident that the warmest 13 years were observed after 1990, or does this increased frequency indicate an external influence?

Calculating the likelihood

With the help of the so called "Monte-Carlo-Simulation" the coastal researchers Dr. Eduardo Zorita and Professor Hans von Storch at the GKSS-Research Centre together with Professor Thomas Stocker from the University of Bern estimated that it is extremely unlikely that the frequency of warm record years after 1990 could be an accident and concluded that it is rather influenced by a external driver.

The fact that the 13 warmest years since 1880 could have accured by accident after 1990 corresponds to a likelihood of no more than 1:10,000.

These likelihood can be illustrated by using the game of chance "heads or tails": the likelihood is the same as 14 heads in a row.

Climate is more complicated than a game

"In order to understand and statistically analyse the climate system and its interaction between the ocean, land, atmosphere and human activity, the comparison with a game of chance is no longer sufficient.

The natural sequence of warm and cold years no longer functions according to the simple principle of "zero or one", explains the GKSS scientist Dr. Eduardo Zorita about the challenges of his calculations, because the climate system possesses some inertia.

An example: After a warm year milder years tend to follow, since the oceans have stored some heat. This natural inertia must also be included in the calculations.

"Our study is pure statistical nature and can not attribute the increase of warm years to individual factors, but is in full agreement with the results of the IPCC that the increased emission of green house gases is mainly responsible for the most recent global warming", says Zorita in summary.

Original title of publication: Zorita, E., T. F. Stocker, and H. von Storch (2008), How unusual is the recent series of warm years?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L24706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036228