What's the worst that could happen?.

PHOTO- Thousands of oil platforms dot the Gulf of Mexico, and despite predictions of a “moderate” hurricane season, the oil and gas industry continues to "recover" from last year’s storms.

'Good' news -
The major hurricane forecasters have made their predictions, and it’s for a “moderate” hurricane season. Cooler seas off the coast of Africa and a prediction of a weak El Nino get the credit for the calmer forecast.

That’s good news for America’s oil and gas industry, which is still recovering from the carnage caused in Energy Alley last year by two hurricanes — Ike and Gustav.

In fact, 5 percent of oil production and 8 percent of natural gas production remains shut in — production outages total 58,000 barrels of oil per day and 590 million cubic feet of gas per day — thanks to last year’s stormy weather, according to figures from the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS).

Thousands of oil platforms dot the Gulf of Mexico, and despite predictions of a “moderate” hurricane season, the oil and gas industry continues to recover from last year’s storms.
Three major undersea pipelines were whacked by hurricanes Ike and Gustav last season. And rough weather this spring has kept work crews from making NEEDED REPAIRS.

Now for 2 pieces of bad news -

Forecasts for the number of storms in any given year are notoriously unreliable, though last year, agencies like NOAA were spot-on.

You can find a table of how accurate NOAA’s predictions have been by pointing your web browser here: http://tinyurl.com/p8popp.

And the second piece of bad news: It only takes one well-aimed hurricane to make the season a bad one. So don’t take the forecast for a “moderate” season as a reason to slack off in your preparedness.

The next hurricane may come barreling right at you or someone you care about. And one well-placed hurricane could also cause major damage to Energy Alley.

So what’s the WORST that could happen?

A storm surge above 20 feet that could take out up to 30 percent of U.S. refining capacity at one shot. Storm surge is a large dome of water often 50 to 100 miles wide that sweeps across the coastline near where a hurricane makes landfall.

Much of the 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent produced in the Gulf of Mexico every day could be shut in … perhaps for weeks.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port — which imports up to 11 percent of U.S. oil consumption, could be taken offline.

Losses from hurricane damage along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico “could increase tenfold from 2020 to 2025,” according to World Bank estimates.

Climate change is making things worse — intensifying the hurricanes. Warmer seawater has boosted the average wind speed of powerful hurricanes from 140 miles per hour in 1981 to 157 miles per hour in 2007, according to a Florida State University study released last year.

And the trend toward stronger hurricanes is particularly noticeable in the area of the Atlantic including the Gulf of Mexico.

Mind you, nothing bad has to happen. It depends on if the Gulf of Mexico is hit by hurricanes at all, where the hurricanes hit and how strong they are.