Egypt and the waters of the Nile: is war inevitable?

Egypt is a country which does not have the luxury of abundant rains and therefore depends on the Nile for 90% of its sustenance. It is also the spiritual center for the people there as they believe the Gods sent floods during the time of the pharoahs which allowed them food and for the pharoahs to build their tombs. The waters of the great Nile were then seen by Egypt as belonging to no one but them. Religion and politics in the 21st century once again now stands in the way of an equitable agreement that will preserve the Nile's waters for all while also understanding it belongs to none.

Egypt's control of the Nile which amounts to 74% of its waters has been intact since the 1929 agreement with then colonial occupant Britain. This antiquated arrangement which gives Egypt access to the majority of the water simply cannot be sustained in modern times, yet Egypt's Mubarek and Bashir in Sudan have not budged in changing it. The agreement also calls for all upstream projects first needing the consent of Egypt and Sudan in order to go forward, however, Ethiopia which suffers from drought and sees the Blue Nile as sacred has challenged that by building dams for irrigation and a current larger hydropower dam.

Drought now plagues this area as well which has increased demand for water as well as greater demand for energy even though it has been noted that the Aswan Dam in Egypt has hurt the soil's health. Revenge tactics in now building an overabundance of dams that defeat the purpose of equitable sharing will not help any side in this if it does nothing to truly provide water to its people, especially in light of other factors such as climate change contributing to sea level rise.

Last May the upstream countries including Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Rwanda, and Ethiopia met giving Egypt and Sudan one year to give an answer regarding a more equitable sharing of the Nile's sacred waters. What could give them more clout in coming to an agreement is the independence vote in South Sudan which would see another country on their side in splitting Bashir's influence in Sudan.

There are many geopolitical angles taking shape regarding what has only amounted to a war of words to this point. It will then be interesting to see with South Sudan gaining independence along with the current events in Egypt how this all unfolds in perhaps now working to secure a fair and equitable agreement regarding the waters of the Nile while also respecting its history and sacred traditions in escaping what will otherwise be the beginning of the water wars of the 21st Century.