Green | October 20, 2011 | 18 comments

Climate-driven migration challenge underestimated

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/us-climate-migration-idUSTRE79I89720111019

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JanforGore
The challenges of human migration due to climate change have been underestimated as millions of people will either move into or be trapped in areas of risk by 2060, rather than migrating away, a British government report showed on Thursday.

The report, by the government-backed Foresight Program, examined the likely movement of people both within and between countries to 2060. It found the greatest risks will be borne by people who are unable or unwilling to relocate.

Those risks may also be made worse by policies which seek to prevent migration.

"We have assumed mass migration away from affected areas, but millions of people will also migrate into vulnerable areas and there will also be those who cannot migrate out," John Beddington, chief scientific adviser to the British government, told reporters.

"They pose different challenges to the international community," he added.

The United Nations estimates there were 210 million international migrants in 2010. A further 740 million were internal migrants in 2009.

An average 25 million people a year have been displaced due to weather-related events since 2008, which will likely rise as such events become more extreme and frequent, Beddington said.

The report estimates there will be between 154 and 179 million people living in rural coastal floodplains by 2060 who will be unable to move away due to poverty.

These trapped communities will need to be made more resilient to environmental events.

Up to 192 million people will also move into urban coastal floodplains in Africa and Asia by 2060 in search of work and a better economic situation.

This kind of migration could be beneficial by opening up new sources of income which help people become stronger and more resilient, enabling households to stay in a place for longer, the report said.

Migration should be considered when funds are being allocated at U.N. climate talks in November in Durban, South Africa, the report said.

The cost of doing nothing will be higher than the cost of measures to tackle migration, especially if they reduce the likelihood of displacement, it added.

"I would hope to see initiatives on migration, forestry and agriculture to follow the Durban meeting," said Beddington, adding that he does not expect a universally binding emissions reduction agreement to emerge this year.


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18 comments // Climate-driven migration challenge underestimated

  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  

    • Water/Climate Migration Bangladesh

      The test for us all... can we as a species turn our back on humanity?

      Perhaps if certain governments weren't so preoccupied with invading countries to take their resources we could actually use resources to help others because it is the right and moral thing to do. A foreign concept for humanity as a whole, I know.

    • 7 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
  • IceKat
    • -1
      IceKat  
    • JanforGore:

      It is sad to hear about the Maldives' impending doom.
      How many years to go now before the sad demise of this paradise? 44 perhaps? Surely not.

      Why not go yourself and take a look. Fly into one of their airports, or wait for one of the eleven proposed new airports to be built, and maybe you could rent a new villa:

      http://www.ilre.com/six-senses-villas.html
      "Rental guarantee:

      Should you chose to opt for a gross rental income guarantee, the Six Senses are happy to offer a 5% guaranteed gross rental income for a period of 5 years. If you join this programme, you will be subject to rental guarantee usage rights of up to 30 days per year and management terms.
      Your Six Senses Laamu villa comes with a ***44 years lease term***, – with ongoing extension - during which time your property will not only generate an income for you, but will also be fully transferable allowing you to take full advantage of any capital appreciation."

      Maybe snorkels are given out free at underwater airports?

    • 7 months ago
  • IceKat
    • -1
      IceKat  
    • Image
    • JanforGore:

      "The Minister further said the construction work of these airports have been handed to Airports Investment Management Company which is a company established for this project. There will be a 200 bed hotel, a yatch marina and a transit hotel in every airport in order to make the airport viable and facilitate tourism and travellers. The airport in Alifu Dhaalu Maamigili is already under construction."

      http://www.maldivestourismupdate.com/2009/07/11-new-airports-to-be-constructed-i...

      The Maldives government blame man's use of fossil fuels for the sinking of their island (the islands aren't sinking and aren't in any danger) so they build new airports and accommodation to attract more tourists who will arrive by fossil-fuelled transport. Interesting eh!

    • 7 months ago
  • totally_dilapidated
  • JanforGore
  • freehit
    • +1
      freehit  
    • JanforGore:

      Just recently it was written that the scientists on climate change have been deliberately been under stating the problem to avoid being alarmists. (National Geographic website showing before and after photos of glaciers)

    • 7 months ago
  • oldbanjo
  • JanforGore
    • +1
      JanforGore  
    • oldbanjo:

      Yes, I think so too.This isn't just some foreign problem. Continued drought on that scale in time could make parts of Texas uninhabitable. And again the question is, where would the people go? You know the current "Governor" doesn't have a plan nor does he care about that. It's already happening here with wildlife moving.

    • 7 months ago
  • oldbanjo
    • +1
      oldbanjo  
    • JanforGore:

      With the lack of water and the burning of the trees it is possible that the land will become a desert. I think that's just the start of our problems. Ga is having major water and heat problems, no fires yet. These idiots say that we're not having Climate warming but a few days ago I saw a show about Islands off New Zealand (I think) that are flooding and have no drinking water. All there ground water is now salt water. Perry could care less, I think he prays to the wrong God.

    • 7 months ago
  • artemis6
  • JanforGore
  • coolplanet
    • +1
      coolplanet  

    • Mountainous tropical islands will be the least effected by climate meltdown, so they say.
      Canada will soon have the climate the USA once enjoyed.
      Siberia is springing up boom towns everywhere.
      Iceland looks good for the near future.
      This means an exodus of more than biblical proportions!
      Are seven billion people ready for this?

    • 7 months ago
  • JanforGore
    • +2
      JanforGore  
    • coolplanet:

      Yes and they will all need shelter, food and water.There will be legalities and questions of citizenship, culture, traditions,restructuring of economies, agriculture, etc. But yet these conferences meet every year and do nothing...as population increases and resources are being used up twice as fast as they can be replenished.So no, we aren't ready.

    • 7 months ago
  • JanforGore
  • JanforGore
    • +4
      JanforGore  
    • Image

    • This is happening right now and for the most part, the world is ignoring it.

      http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jul2011/2011-07-06-01.html

      Kenya, July 6, 2011 (ENS) - The worst drought in 60 years is causing a severe food crisis in East Africa. In Kenya, the world's largest refugee camp is overwhelmed as 10,000 climate refugees from across the drought-stricken region arrive each week seeking water, food and shelter.

      "The overcrowded Dadaab refugee camp in Garissa continues to receive new arrivals at alarming rates. The current number of registered refugees, 353,921, is four times its capacity," the UN's humanitarian affairs agency said Thursday. "Twenty thousand people have arrived in the last two weeks alone."
      Newly arrived refugees from Somalia wait for registration at world's largest refugee camp in Dadaab, Kenya (Photo by R. Gangale courtesy UNHCR)
      The influx of Somalis into refugee camps in the Dadaab area of Kenya's North-Eastern province has led to worsening overcrowding amid limited resources.

      The epicenter of the drought has hit the poorest people in the region in an area straddling the borders of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

      The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, OCHA, estimates that 10 million people across the Horn of Africa are caught in a deadly combination of failed rains and soaring global food prices.
      end of excerpt

    • 7 months ago
  • JanforGore
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