5 things to watch for in tonight's State of the Union

By Eriq Gardner
current.com 

Tonight, President Barack Obama delivers the fourth and last State of the Union in his first term. The speech is being delivered amid intense partisan bickering and an economy that might be improving, but still is a long ways off from delivering anything near equality and stability for the country’s 300-plus million citizens.

What to expect? No doubt the rhetoric will be sharp, and the pomp and grandeur high. Will it be powerful as well? Lyndon B. Johnson, who delivered the first SOTU in primetime, once complained that his speechwriters had given him “50 pages of vomit.” We’ll trust Obama’s keen sense of oratory won’t let that happen. Will it be succinct? Jimmy Carter’s last SOTU was 33,667 words long and Bill Clinton once droned on for nearly an hour-and-a-half. Unfortunately, in past SOTUs, Obama has shared the tendencies by his Democratic predecessors to go long. Will it be entertaining? Harry Truman in 1947 was the first one to give his SOTU on television, and unfortunately, the production values haven’t greatly improved since then.

But there’s still reason to tune into Obama’s big speech tonight for the chance it will be memorable.

Here are some big things to watch tonight:

1. Yes, President Obama will be talking a lot about the economy, and is expected to make the case that government intervention is necessary, but will he be pragmatic or inspiring? No flourishes of rhetoric will be enough to trump political obstinacy – not as partisan bickering is enough to keep the makers of Advil in business. And any legislative promises made will, of course, be viewed skeptically. (See, for instance, previous commitments to overhaul immigration laws or do something about climate change.) But if he’s building an argument that government needs to make active efforts to address economic inequality, perhaps even nodding to the thousands who are protesting as part of the Occupy Wall Street movement, watch whether he can regain the commitment of his progressive base to keep hope alive.

2. Will President Obama take on his Republican presidential challengers? Those playing a SOTU drinking game, do five shots if Obama mentions, “Mitt Romney.” Probably won’t happen. But after what seems like an endless amount of prime time Republican presidential debates, Obama gets his own opportunity to hit back. That most likely happens in oblique form. Making the case that the rich aren’t paying their fair share is easy enough, but will there be allusions to certain individuals who made their millions in private equity and are now only paying a 13.9 percent tax rate? In lieu of any knockout punches, watch to see if Obama throws any jabs toward Mitt and Newt.

3. And how will President Obama address congressional Republicans? The “Do-Nothing Congress” has already become a campaign meme. Just weeks after the President went toe-to-toe with them over whether to extend payroll tax cuts – and emerged the winner – he’ll be within yards of them and speaking  about their inadequacies. What form will this take? Watch to see his language – it’ll either be “We need to do more” or “You haven’t done nearly enough” and there’s definitely a difference.

4. What will the reaction be in the congressional chamber? Frankly, we dare anyone to quote passages from President Obama’s past State of the Union addresses. No, what typically gets remembered whenever the President makes a Capitol Hill appearance is his tone and how it is received. Who can forget “You lie!”? Who can’t recollect the Supreme Court justices’ faces when President Obama sharply criticized the Citizens United decision? Surely, Republicans will attempt to be respectful, but everyone knows tonight’s speech is the starter’s pistol of Obama’s re-election efforts. Watch to see whether Congressional Tea Party acolytes will be able to restrain themselves.

5. Do President Obama’s advisors realize that we’re living in a new era? Perhaps it was excusable that State of the Union addresses went on… and on… and on… during the heyday of broadcast news. Ninety minutes of rhetoric would easily be transformed into a few sound bites of coverage. But no longer is it crucially important that speeches be shaped for the evening newscast. We’re onto the age of hashtags, where instant analysis and omnipresent snark nearly drowns everything out. If there are any surprises tonight, it’ll surely trend. Watch to see if President Obama recognizes this, and throws a few bones towards all those speaking over him on social media as he’s trying to have a conversation with the nation.