By David Shuster / current.com / @DavidShuster
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) — a tea party favorite — has become acidic to independent voters in her district and is on the verge of losing her re-election campaign.
The latest poll from Minnesota has Bachmann clinging to a 2-point lead (48-46) over Democratic challenger Jim Graves.
According to the polling by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosler, Bachmann has gone from a 4-point advantage among independents two months ago to a 15-point disadvantage among independents today.
Furthermore, the poll found that Bachmann's favorability continues to tumble.
The race has become something of a referendum on social issues. Bachmann is one of the highest-profile anti-gay politicians in the country. Her Democratic opponent, Graves, has taken a strong and unequivocal stand supporting same-sex marriage.
However, there are other issues in play as well. Republican strategists indicate they are now seeing a "Romney drag" in congressional races across the country, as the GOP brand becomes increasingly associated with protecting America's wealthiest 1 percent.
Democrats in general, and the Obama campaign in particular, have worked hard to focus voters on the idea that we are all in this economy together. And Republican strategists acknowledge that the combination of the sometimes inconsistent message of the Romney campaign and Romney's own blunders has left the GOP at a political disadvantage.
In any case, the reason the Bachmann race is so intriguing, beyond her wild and controversial statements the past few years, is because her seat is supposed to be a safe one for the GOP. And to the extent a tea party favorite like Bachmann is in danger, the odds increase for a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives. Many of my colleagues have written recently about a possible Democratic "wave" in November that keeps President Obama in office and possibly sweeps Democrats back into power in the House.
A lot can happen between now and November. Furthermore, Democrats would be wise not to count on Romney to keep up the self-inflicted wounds harming him and the GOP. Still, the trend lines at the moment are less of an election wave and more like a tsunami.