Bradley Effect and how it might effect Obama:

Obama now holds a significant lead over McCain in most polls. Despite these strong numbers, many observers point to the Bradley Effect and claim that Obama’s lead is not as strong as it appears. Here’s one explanation of the Bradley Effect and how it might effect Obama:

Bradley Effect believers assume that there is an undetectable tendency in the behavior of some white voters who tell pollsters that they are “undecided” when in fact their true preference is to vote against the black candidate. This so-called effect suggests the power or advantage to alter an outcome - a pretty serious charge. This would render poll projections inaccurate (overstating both the number of undecided voters and the African-American candidate’s margin over a white opponent) and create an unaccounted for different outcome.

The hype surrounding the Bradley Effect has evolved to where some political pundits believe in 2008 that Obama must win in the national pre-election polls by 6-9 points before he can be assured a victory.

The Bradley effect is named for Tom Bradley, a black candidate for mayor in Los Angeles in 1982 who lost despite being ahead in the polls. The same effect has been attributed to Douglas Wilder, Harvey Gantt, and a number of other minority candidates who performed on election day well below what the polls indicated.

Some blamed the Bradley Effect for Obama’s narrow loss to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, although that is by no means a majority opinion. The trouble is, the Bradlety Effect is impossible to prove, because there is no way to determine with any scientific precision why people would respond one way in a poll and another way in the election booth. In fact, there is plenty of doubt out there that such a thing as the Bradley Effect even exists:

We all know instances of polls being wrong, when a white candidate didn’t win, right? Well, I don’t hear them talking about The Kerry Effect, or The Gore Effect, of The Dewey Effect. I personally doubt that the Bradley Effect ever existed, or at least that it involved enough people to lose the race for him. It’s the premise that a bunch of white people in CA lied to the pollsters because they wouldn’t/couldn’t admit they were racist.

I’m from the deep south. There, the folks have no problem saying they won’t vote for a black man. No problemo. They are actually MORE inclined to lie and tell other white people that of course they are going to vote for the white candidate, and then secretly vote for the black one.

Some people, then, are actually predicting a reverse Bradley Effect - that more people will vote for Obama than will say they are going to vote for him. Honestly, I have no idea who’s right. I don’t know if Obama’s race is going to help him or hurt him on Election Day.

All I know is that this is making me very nervous. As McCain/Palin self-destructs and Obama/Biden steadily rises, I’m paranoid about getting overconfident. I mean, the electoral map makes it look like a done deal for the Democrats. Nonetheless, I have this persistent fear that on November 4, despite a commanding Obama lead, we’re going to watch state after state surprisingly fall for the aging white man from Arizona.

With three weeks to go, does anybody else feel this odd mixture of confidence and anxiety?