Parsing the (Tracking) Poll: The White Catholic Weathervane

Looking for a bellwether group to focus on in the final week of the presidential race?

Look no further than white Catholics, who have gone for the winner in every single presidential election for which exit polling exists. That means that since 1972, the candidate for whom the majority of white Catholics cast their votes has -- like clockwork -- claimed the presidency. For the non-math majors out there, that's EIGHT straight elections. (Looking for the exact numbers? Check after the jump.)

For months, the Washington Post/ABC News poll, has shown John McCain holding a wide lead over Barack Obama among this key swing group, which in the past eight elections has comprised between 20 and 25 percent of the electorate as a whole. Back in mid-June, McCain was at 60 percent, with 34 percent for Obama -- a margin that fluctuated somewhat as the summer wore on but by the end of the Republican National Convention had returned to a 19-point McCain edge.

And yet, since the Post/ABC began its daily tracking poll (interviews are conducted each night with the results combined into a three-day rolling average) on Oct. 19, Obama has been making steady gains on McCain among white Catholics.

On the 19th, McCain led 54 percent to 41 percent. By Oct. 24, that lead has shrunk to 51 percent to 46 percent. And then, in the tracks released on Monday night and Tuesday night, for the first time Obama actually moved ahead -- taking 48 percent of the white Catholic vote to McCain's 47 percent in each track.

Now, it's important to note that Obama's "lead" is not statistically significant. But, the trend line among white Catholics is clearly moving in the right direction for the Illinois senator. He has erased a double-digit lead among this critical voting bloc in the space of 10 days time.

Will white Catholic voters keep their 32-year streak alive next Tuesday?

White Catholic Vote (1972-2004)
2004: George W. Bush 56 percent, John Kerry 43 percent
2000: George W. Bush 52 percent, Al Gore 45 percent
1996: Bill Clinton 48 percent, Bob Dole 41 percent
1992: Bill Clinton 42 percent, George H.W. Bush 37 percent
1988: George H.W. Bush 56 percent, Michael Dukakis 43 percent
1984: Ronald Reagan 57 percent, Walter Mondale 42 percent
1980: Ronald Reagan 52 percent, Jimmy Carter 39 percent
1976: Jimmy Carter 52 percent, Gerald Ford 46 percent
1972: Richard Nixon 57 percent, George McGovern 42 percent