Unemployment, Debt: How will we dig ourselves out? - Real Recovery
source: http://blogs.current.com/news/2009/11/23/unemployment-debt-how-will-we-dig-ourselves-out-rea...
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- afitzgerald
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I'm sure as we go into the fourth quarter and layoff season begins anew, that those rates will only continue to worsen. The question is will job creation begin en masse at the beginning of next year? What do we do if it doesn't?
Well some have called for more stimulus spending, but there's a new scary number in town: the federal debt.
From the New York Times: "With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher. In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
The Economist's cover this week has a giant America-sized hole and is full of frightful admonitions against raising spending.
So how do we create some new jobs around here? Open for ideas.
FROM THE NEWS BLOG: http://blogs.current.com/news/2009/11/23/unemployment-debt-how-will-we-dig-ourse...
SOURCES: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/business/economy/21jobless.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/23/business/23rates.html
IMAGE: http://www.andrewhalcro.com/saving_uncle_sam
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CreditFigaro
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"In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
This is a reaaaaly poor sentence.
What he fails to mention is that the wars in A and I cost about $500 billion a year. (assuming you compare the inflation adjusted size of the DOD from 2000 to 2008)
In addition, that isn't going to happen until 2019. We will be out of the wars by then and, assuming we keep democrats in office, we won't be engaged in any new wars.
I think there is little to worry about from increasing the national debt during this recession.
If a heavy stimulus can help pull us out of recession (which most economists say it would) resulting in more tax revenues which would offset the interest costs associated with it.
If conservatives really had a problem with debt, they would also be libertarians, and not republicans. Honestly, libertarians ought to vote for a progressive because progressives always get around to balancing the budget. Conservatives NEVER do.
- 2 years ago
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CreditFigaro
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Saladin
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CreditFigaro:
It's a problem because the Federal Debt is approaching its largest since WWII.
A catastrophic crisis of confidence would destroy this government. And while government spending is the right option, the inflating debt will create an interest payment that literally will become impossible to pay while providing government services.
Personally, I think the solution is the elimination of the Fed period or the Federal Government taking backs its right to issue currency.
Why the hell are we paying -interest- on our own programs? It's insane, the money just gets printed anyway.
- 2 years ago
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Saladin
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CreditFigaro
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CreditFigaro:
Can you please demonstrate how it is unsustainable?
- 2 years ago
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CreditFigaro
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Saladin
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CreditFigaro:
It's simple, the government currently pays nearly $400 billion dollars a year just to pay the INTEREST on the national debt.
On top of that, we're running huge deficits, which means we're not making inroads into paying this shit off. Which means that number is only going to get larger.
In fact, with the coming Social Security and Medicare crises, government would need to bring in a TON of additional revenue to be able to pay for all the services it wants to provide.
This is what Clinton created the surplus for, to deal with this hump in spending on baby boomers for Social Security and Medicare.
But those days are long gone now, now we're funding two costly wars and a military establishment the likes of which haven't been seen since Vietnam or WWII. We've lowered taxes across the board now with the centrist compromise we elected in Obama. And no end is in sight. Obama plans to try and deal with budget next year, but I'm not seeing how he can do so without majorly cutting services.
The problem with our debt is that if people decide the U.S. too fucked up and decide to stop lending, everything crashes to the ground.
This is partially why the banks got a bailout, they have us by the balls because they can facilitate a collapse if they don't get their way. With all their major investments overseas, it's not like they give a shit.
I guess what I should ask, what part of this system IS sustainable? Do you think we can last another 30 years running debts like this? How much debt do you think we can handle? 20 trillion? 30? 40? The interest on a debt that big would EXCEED the fiscal plan for an ENTIRE YEAR.
- 2 years ago
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Saladin
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CreditFigaro
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CreditFigaro:
I agree with you that we are wasting money and that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are wasting all of our resources. I agree that we shouldn't have tax cut like we did and we should hike taxes on the top earners.
HOWEVER
That doesn't mean we shouldn't stimulate the economy now using debt to do it. Listen to Paul Krugman:
http://fora.tv/2009/11/09/Paul_Krugman_The_Return_of_Depression_Economics#fullpr...
I think we have far more to worry about if we DON'T take out these deficits now.
Obama could fix everything by pulling out of the wars and hiking taxes. Period.
- 2 years ago
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CreditFigaro
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Saladin
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CreditFigaro:
I totally agree that depression spending is a great way to get out of this and ending the wars will help considerably.
But it's not everything, it could possibly take a decade or two of frugal spending to get over this. And THAT is assuming another rethug doesn't take office and fuck the whole thing up again.
But that's not the real issue here, the real issue is that the crooks who facilitated this 1. got away with it 2. have the current government by the balls and 3. none of the underlying economic problems that caused the recession are fixed.
National debt, as in the combination of corporate, household and government debt, exceeds 50 fucking trillion dollars. In case you're wondering, that's about 5 times our actual money supply.
It's a god damn wonder our country is coming down around our ears, that kind of debt is unprecedented in world history, let alone U.S. history. Private bankers are running this country into the ground because of our failed monetary system, and no amount of government spending is going to fix THAT.
This foreclosure business is NOT new, it's been happening for DECADES now. This is just the first time it's been so big and so nasty that it's caught the public attention. This kind of wealth distribution is killing us, and the combination of fractional reserve loaning and the Fed is the root cause.
This happened in the late nineties with the dotcom crash, in the late eighties/early nineties with an almost EXACTLY identical banking scheme which among other things led to an excuse for mass layoffs which Clinton then secured with NAFTA and other bullshit free trade agreements.
What I'm getting at is that these things are NOT accidents, they are intentional crashes facilitated by economic elites. These things DON'T HURT people like that, they get to secure all of the foreclosed properties. And if they do get fucked, they ask for a bailout or they'll facilitate a depression by wiping out their money supply.
- 2 years ago
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Saladin
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CreditFigaro
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CreditFigaro:
Woah, man, you are all over the place.
I sorta get your world view. I understand where you are coming from. There are a few inconsistencies, though. The Fed is not what compels businesses and individuals to finance start ups and homes. Individuals and businesses choose to use debt to get access to much needed necessities like a machine to produce inventory or a car to get to and from work. Unfortunately, individuals tend to use it for glam rather than necessity. I digress. Yes, the fed ultimately provides the cash for banks to lend. Let's get rid of the Fed... then what?
The Fed is nothing more than a tool, when used improperly it can do harm, when used properly it can do much good.
Where did you get the $400 billion interest payment number? The budget claims that net interest is $289 billion this year and projected to plummet as more tarp money comes in (I guess) but it's coming back up again, soon. That doesn't mean I like it. I am just saying that it isn't as bad as you quoted. It's still a lot. 10% of tax revenue is a hell of a lot.
I have a tough time believing that the crashes are planned by "the elites." I think adequate regulation is good enough to keep people from getting screwed. Please, show some proof if you want to change my mind on that.
- 2 years ago
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CreditFigaro
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artemis6
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Make your own value . Barter . What ever you can do or have .
- 2 years ago
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artemis6
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My_America
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Tax cuts, Drill hear/Drill now, build nuclear energy plants, get government out of healthcare, get government out of the automobile business, impeach prezbho, impeach most of congress, fine illegals andsend them home, fine companies who hire illegals, secure borders.....there's a start I could continue.
- 2 years ago
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My_America
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CreditFigaro
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My_America:
"The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country." Lincoln's Second Annual Message to Congress, December 1, 1862.
You are supporting a dogma that is 150 years old.
The situation is different now. The problem is different now.
Then, income disparity was much less. (except for black people and women)
Finally, some questions for you:
Tax cuts - Explain how this improves the public welfare
Drill hear/Drill now - We couldn't produce enough oil to satisfy our demand and wean ourselves off of foreign imports, assuming that the purpose is to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Why not take the more cost effective route and use clean energy instead?
Build nuclear energy plants - Hasn't been done for decades. Do you think there may be a reason why? If it's not cost effective, that means it requires subsidies. Tampering with the free market isn't good for conservatives to be consistent.
Get government out of healthcare - OK, no more medicare. Then what?
get government out of the automobile business - Last I checked, the one company that is now under government control was making a b-line towards bankruptcy. Now it's much smaller and improving... I guess government CAN do a good job, after all?
impeach prezbho - for...?
impeach most of congress - again, what for? They were voted in on majority.
fine illegals andsend them home - Wouldn't that require the expansion of government to track them down and haul them out?
fine companies who hire illegals - I think they put them in jail, actually. But hey, if we are going to make government bigger to do so, then by all means, enforce the law...
secure borders - OK, with what troops? Again, this would require a huge expansion of government, something conservatives are supposed to be against.
I could continue - No, please, explain what you have already suggested, first.
- 2 years ago
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CreditFigaro
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Jason_Harris
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End all wars, including the war on drugs, and legalize the cannabis plant. It will solve all our problems.
- 2 years ago
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Jason_Harris
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blknight
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Jason_Harris:
True that.
- 2 years ago
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blknight
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Saladin
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Whatever we do, radical action is needed.
This won't be fixed by more stimulus spending or raising and lowering taxes. That article you mentioned in the Economist had some good answers, but it all looks very bleak.
The most expedient answer clearly is ending private control of the Fed, since they engineered this crisis as they've been doing since 1907 and especially during the Great Depression.
Our money is reliant on debt, which is why it is never erased. A change in debt-based fiat currency to government controlled and issued "greenback" style currency would be a big step in ending the debt.
Of course, that issue is foundational to the struggle of this country, a little thing like this recent depression isn't going to fix that.
- 2 years ago
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Saladin
