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This man can actually predict the future!

  2. sforte
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...Bueno de Mesquita has big ideas, and he's more than happy to put his career on the line for them. Back in March 2004, when al-Qaeda bombed a Madrid train station, influencing the course of Spain's general election three days later, a lot of U.S. security folks were nervous. Worried that al-Qaeda might try something similar here in the run-up to the November, 2004, presidential elections, the Pentagon hired Bueno de Mesquita to run some data through his forecasting model to tell them what to expect. The results were unequivocal. "I said there would be no homeland attack. I also indicated that bin Laden's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, would resurface around Thanksgiving, 2004," he says. Just after the elections in November that year, Zawahiri released a new videotape. Bueno de Mesquita was right on both counts. "One of the things government needs most is advice that's not wishy-washy. I try to be as precise as I can."
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