The battle is on — political forces are on the offensive

Here is the story I have seen developing over the last 59 days since 18th February. The story is purely based on news reports, current affairs programs and personal sources in Islamabad.

1. Just after the elections when it was confirmed that somehow the mad dictator and his cronies have lost the elections. Establishment embarked on a strategy to damage control. It was agreed amongst the establishment key stackholders that the battle is lost, however they may control the damage not to complete destroy them.

2. The strategy was highly dependant upon the actions of other people (i.e opposition) than their own actions. It became also apparent in the later stages that US and other Western European powers will not involve themselves in any aspect of this strategy.

3. The key issues that they faced were in order of their severity:
- The murder of Benazir Bhutto and investigations by United Nations.
- Charter of Democracy and its consequences.
- The issue of Balochistan and murder of Akbar Bugti , Mengal.
- The huge income of dollars in terms of US investment in Army and control of those funds.
- Missing persons
- Restoration of judiciary

4. As I said their was more dependant on the actions of PPP and PML(N), the first goal was to have a rift between PPP and PML(N), than create a rift amongst PPP ranks. Most important action they were waiting from PPP was the selection of PM candidate. The hoped to have Makhdoom Amin Fahim in that position and if not, they expected to create a rift in PPP ranks on that issue. Somehow Asif Zardari turned out to be more shrewd politician than they expected. Even Makhdoom Amin Fahim disappointed the establishment a lot. For the rift between PPP and PML(N) , PML(Q) successful candidates were used, who joined PML(N) in throngs to create the impression that PML(N) may be using them as to blackmail PPP in Punjab.

5. However the action that failed the first strategy of establishment was Murree declaration. Which somehow included the restoration of judges (in parenthesis it meant decalaration of 3rd November PCO as illegal), They did however succeeded in getting the CoD not mentioned in the six point declaration.

6. After the first defeat however establishment reworked their strategy , and came on the discussion table to have the negotiations. As true sons of Tiger Niazi (Dhaka fame) , their first approach was to have the cake and eat it too. The Qayum bill was product of that thinking. The most important aspect of Qayum bill was that it brought up reference of CoD in it (so remember never make monkey as your friend). It however said that the actions of PCO will indemnified in return of Judges restoration. However it brought the CoD clause in it to appoint the judges, their wishful thinking was that they may get CJ or any other judges blocked by it. Again this backfired as this bill turned the attention of AZ and NS towards CoD instead of restoration of Judiciary.