Under Clinton's rules, Obama still wins
- added May 11, 2008
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- muckraker
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Barack Obama can fully accept Hillary Rodham Clinton’s terms on Michigan and Florida and still win a majority of pledged Democratic delegates on June 1, allowing him to lay claim to the nomination under the New York senator’s own rules.
A Politico analysis of the delegate numbers after Tuesday’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana shows Obama can concede to Clinton’s position on Michigan and Florida and still claim victory — potentially forestalling the Democratic nightmare scenario of a floor fight at the Denver convention.
The Clinton campaign rejected the premise of Politico’s analysis, dismissing it as “artificial metrics” that “might make for interesting cocktail party conversation” but would give Obama no legitimate claim on the nomination.
But the numbers could add to Obama’s growing strategic advantage. Some background: The magic number of pledged delegates — excluding Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for holding early, unsanctioned primaries — is 1,627 to have a definitive majority.
Obama will reach that threshold on May 20, after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, and plans to declare victory.
The Democratic National Committee sets the clinching number at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates, excluding Florida and Michigan. The rationale of the Obama camp is that hitting 1,627 means the candidate is a lock for the higher DNC number also, because superdelegates are unlikely to overturn voting results.
Many neutral Democratic strategists agree. “It’s not going to happen,” said Carter Eskew, the chief strategist for Al Gore’s 2000 campaign. “I don’t think anybody in Democratic circles, not aligned with either campaign, believes any different.”
Clinton’s campaign, however, has argued that Obama needs to clear yet another figure — 2,209 pledged delegates and superdelegates, a figure that includes the two rogue states. Clinton aides have said Obama won’t meet that target on May 20.......
A Politico analysis of the delegate numbers after Tuesday’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana shows Obama can concede to Clinton’s position on Michigan and Florida and still claim victory — potentially forestalling the Democratic nightmare scenario of a floor fight at the Denver convention.
The Clinton campaign rejected the premise of Politico’s analysis, dismissing it as “artificial metrics” that “might make for interesting cocktail party conversation” but would give Obama no legitimate claim on the nomination.
But the numbers could add to Obama’s growing strategic advantage. Some background: The magic number of pledged delegates — excluding Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for holding early, unsanctioned primaries — is 1,627 to have a definitive majority.
Obama will reach that threshold on May 20, after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, and plans to declare victory.
The Democratic National Committee sets the clinching number at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates, excluding Florida and Michigan. The rationale of the Obama camp is that hitting 1,627 means the candidate is a lock for the higher DNC number also, because superdelegates are unlikely to overturn voting results.
Many neutral Democratic strategists agree. “It’s not going to happen,” said Carter Eskew, the chief strategist for Al Gore’s 2000 campaign. “I don’t think anybody in Democratic circles, not aligned with either campaign, believes any different.”
Clinton’s campaign, however, has argued that Obama needs to clear yet another figure — 2,209 pledged delegates and superdelegates, a figure that includes the two rogue states. Clinton aides have said Obama won’t meet that target on May 20.......
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Superdelegates can change their minds, don't you know?
And even if Obama wins the nomination, what happens if he loses the general election?-
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- PatrickEdwardMurray
- 2 months ago
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