Can a win in West Virginia sway superdelegates?
- added May 13, 2008
- 42 responses
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- ajwashington
- added this
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Even if Hillary Clinton beats Barack Obama in Tuesday’s West Virginia primary by the huge margins predicted by polls, the victory won’t go very far towards chipping away at Obama’s lead in pledged delegates in their race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
It could, however, give Clinton’s sputtering campaign one last chance to alter – or at least mute – the prevailing narrative that Obama’s nomination is inevitable.
And, perhaps more importantly, a massive margin of victory could bolster Clinton’s central argument to the superdelegates who will ultimately decide the nomination. Her campaign contends that Obama has serious problems with the blue collar and elderly whites who dominate West Virginia’s voter rolls – and who Team Clinton asserts will be key in a number of states if Democrats are to defeat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
So, how to know whether West Virginia is on its way to giving Clinton a narrative-changing win that will sway superdelegates, or at least prolong their decision-making process?
Politico's Kenneth P. Vogel outlines the five indicators the pros will be watching for as the results from West Virginia come in.
It could, however, give Clinton’s sputtering campaign one last chance to alter – or at least mute – the prevailing narrative that Obama’s nomination is inevitable.
And, perhaps more importantly, a massive margin of victory could bolster Clinton’s central argument to the superdelegates who will ultimately decide the nomination. Her campaign contends that Obama has serious problems with the blue collar and elderly whites who dominate West Virginia’s voter rolls – and who Team Clinton asserts will be key in a number of states if Democrats are to defeat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
So, how to know whether West Virginia is on its way to giving Clinton a narrative-changing win that will sway superdelegates, or at least prolong their decision-making process?
Politico's Kenneth P. Vogel outlines the five indicators the pros will be watching for as the results from West Virginia come in.
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- ajwashington
- 2 months ago
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I wouldn't put anything past Washington but Obama doesn't have much to worry about. I'm also sure that a majority of her supes are planning on busting up soon no matter how she does in the last few states. Ive even noticed some pollsters arent even asking Clinton questions.
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In the pass few months I thought the idea of Hilary dropping out for Obamas sake was silly an idea so that 'their' guy could win. However, she needs to know when to call it a day and back out gracefully. If not for anything else then to have her save some face in the political world.
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Hillary is reaching. Her winning West Virginia is little more than a bandaid attempting to cover an arterial tear. Suddenly, elitist Shillary's base is the common man sans education, cash, and social power. In 2010, that mendacious crap ain't gonna play well with the Albany elites who have routinely run her unopposed. Thus, there is no 2012 in her future.
All she wants now is a debt resolution deal for this $22 million tab she's run up with her feckless follies. If you call her campaign to make a contribution now, you have to give a credit card number or cash-strapped Team Hillary is hanging up.-
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- 96thdayofrage
- 2 months ago
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no
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Chique said it best...
No!!! It's over! The lady in the "pants suit" needs to bow out gracefully to save face. Let's get behind the likely nominee and take back the people's White House! -
West Virginia=meaningful
um... no-
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- iammyfathersson
- 2 months ago
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How did she manage to run up that much debt? I feel sorry for the venders, but my sympathy for her is long gone. I can't wait for tonight's speech. It will be fodder for late night comedians for months to come. She could have quit and kept some dignity and relevance, she didn't.
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- Marilynn_Murray
- 2 months ago
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GO gurrrrrrrrl!!!!!
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I like Obama, but I think if he gets the Democratic nomination, McCain will have a better change to win the presidency. Hope I'm wrong...
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- alapalooza
- 2 months ago
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two words: HELL NO!!
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- alpha_nova
- 2 months ago
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Ah, West Virginia. You are so perfect for Hillary. You have one of the lowest college graduation rates of any state, and polls show that the majority of your voters still think that Obama is a Muslim. Your naivety is fertile ground for the likes of Clinton...
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- nickdotnet
- 2 months ago
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James carville has already said that,"as soon as Obama wins the nomination, he personally was going to write him a check", so why is this even a story. IT'S OVER ALREADY PEOPLE !!!!! She's ruined it for herself now. We don't want her for anything anymore .This lady is a professional bitch.
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maybe she could back out and endorse obama to help him succeed over McSame.... or does she not care about anything besides her campaign (which is over)....?
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- phillyphil
- 2 months ago
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Only if she traps them all in a coal mine and cuts of their air until they agree to vote for her.
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No. But let's see how she and the MSM spin it.
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if she wins by 100 points, she gets about 26 delegates, still down 150...
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It may have an effect causing the super D's to ultimately do their choosing at the campaign. The major factor nobody is talking about is that Obama is a JUNIOR senator compared to Clinton. Clinton does have the experience and plans to make changes to this country that have been a long time coming since Bush threw us into this ridiculous unending American lives taking war. All I continue to hear from Obama is rehetoric. I don't think he has what it takes. Clinton has been in the Senate basically since she left the white house as 1st lady. She understands the workings of the presidency and the Congress far better than Obama. He's a great speaker but I don't think he's 'the one' to be President. It's going to be a bad move if he is our Dem Nominee. He can't beat McCain. Hillary can!!! When are people going to get real with the reality of that ultimate race. I guess time will tell.
Peace out.
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If Hillary is such a great candidate and only she can beat McCain, how is this JUNIOR senator beating her? I'm sorry, but it's kind defeats your argument that only Hillary can win...if more than half of the democrats in the country don't want her to be the nominee. I know it's frustratingly close, but Obama has more pledged delegates, more super delegates, more popular vote, more states won. It's really hard to argue with that.
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maybe if she wins W. Virgina and then proclaims that God wants her to be president.
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- stephenthomson
- 2 months ago
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He has more pledged delegates ONLY because he is a great orator. Which is fine and dandy, but he's not grounded. Look at the whole mess with his pastor. He can 'preach' his speaches and connect with the masses. But that will not make him a great leader of the USA. What has he done? Where is his plan that helps out the middle class. His health care plan sucks. He speaks of sweeping change. Anybody who knows about leading, knows there is a methodology about change. You cannot take out the infrastructure out and expect new policies and change to work. There has to be planning and strategy. None of which we've heard any detail from Obama. Hillary on the other hand has thought things through. She has a plan. She also has resources, and an ex-president husband, who is a Rhodes Scholar. What kind of resources does Obama have. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a nice guy, but I don't think he's strong enough to fulfill on his campaign promises - which are inefficient to say the least.
His own pundits couldn't even defend his accomplishments.. it's surprising he's gotten this far.
What we need is the women of this country to stand up and vote her in.
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SJR,
Sen. Obama has accomplished a lot more then just being a great speaker. Moreover, his dominance of an established political dynasty shows he clearly has what it takes to lead the country as well as he lead his campaign.
We don't need another person that can't speak and can't lead. It's important to have someone of integrity back in the White House. She FLAT OUT lied, used every dirty trick, exploited her gender and his race the best of her abilities and still took a beating.
There is a lot to her that is commendable and she is in a difficult position as the first woman to get as far as she's gotten but she is CLEARLY not the right person to lead us out of the mess the last poor choice got us into. -
eldamon,
Can anyone clearly describe is accompishments? Yes she majorly embellished the 'gunfire on the tarmac' story, but anyone can see it was for entertainment value. What has Obama done, other than clearly pull the rug over a large percentage of Americans. I give you is eloquent and charismatic, but we need much much more that and we do not need another BUSH aka McCain in the White House.
peace -
gunfire in Bosnia was for entertainment value?!?!
that must have flown right over my head when she said
"now that's the truth."
give me a break. -
Obama has no rug over my eyes, SJR. Hillary needs to win the rest of the primaries by unreal percentages, and she just can't do it. Literally, it can't happen without voter fraud, which I wouldn't put past her by the way. He exceeds the capacity to carry out his plans, and they will at least begin our country's movement again in a forward direction.
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If she doesn’t gracefully exit now she’s got one last big win(WV), she will be painted as a spoiler and her legacy will suffer.
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SJR,
You just made an excuse for Hillary's bald face lie, which was not for entertainment value but to give her street cred she clearly did not deserve - much like her vote to go to war. She has shown time and again when it comes down to it she'll do what's best for her.
And you can't be serious about not being able to list any of Obama's accomplishments. He has already sealed his place in the nations history and is well on the way to making his mark on world history. This is the child of mixed parents raised by a single mom on food stamps that graduated Harvard School of Law. He's not only excelled he's going to be the next leader of the free world. Is there an accomplishment or two in there for you? -
Delegates should not matter, only the popular vote. No electoral college.
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- Dmitri_Molotov
- 2 months ago
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Hillary has had the Democratic world in the palm of her hand for a long time. For all the Hillary supporters, what happened???
She couldn’t leave well enough alone. She has been proven to be a:
Liar – Bosnia, Ireland, etc
Manipulator - signing the DNC pledge and calling for FL/MI to count
Bush-like Presidential tailcoat rider – Daddy Bush and Bill
How does a guy named Barack Obama with a black dad and white mom match her and even surpass her? He spoke To the people, not AT them.
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Here's an answer......NO
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Good point Pwdrskir - and she still "talks at them - us". McCain, he's just running his game and hoping nobody realizes he's faking it.
McCain, or grandaddy hasn't a chance. He is not a leader, he is a follower.
Worse still, McCain has untreated post traumatic stress syndrome left over from being a prisoner of war. A vote for McCain, at this stage - because his motivations are all wrong would be to vote for America to be "prisoner of this faux war on terror".
Busheney and gang handled everything very incompetently and look at the mess we are in. The only thing they are competent at is covering their ass.
Obama is a leader and a man with integrity. That's exactly what we need and want.-
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- VoyagerFilms
- 2 months ago
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Do I hear the fat lady singing yet? I bet she is at least humming.
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- Marilynn_Murray
- 2 months ago
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Marilynn, the fat lady already made a remix
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- keeshii768
- 2 months ago
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LLLLOOOOLLLL!!!!
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FACT FLASH: Lowest % of population w/ college degree, 17%. W. Virginia is about 97% white and mostly older people, you know, the same bible hugging sinful maniac hypocrites that were around in the 60's/70's; verbally, emotionally, economically, and physically abusing fellow Americans of African descent. So DON'T expect them to vote for a candidate that is ANY black, and Obama is half. But DO expect them to "pass on" soon, up to our newer generations to do better. Welcome to America! =(
Big Ups to the 26% that voted for Obama. The U.S.A. should annex W.Virgina, ha ha.-
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- Wessagusset_Oracle
- 2 months ago
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What is amazeing is , how everyone thinks Obama has this sewed up. There are 266 delegates that have not endorsed has of yet. Because they WILL not decide until after Oregon, and folks , that is fair!!! She will Take Kentucky, she will Take Oregon, she will take Montana , and that ,as I have predicted, will make this the closest Democratic pick in history. If it came down to ballot posting Nationwide today , at this moment , on the favorite, Hillary would win by a Landslide Nationwide. That leaves the lone 4 supers' in Puerto Rico(or where the ones are at) and he will win those black votes. Now , being said, it will come down to all 50 States to make that pick, and you know what .Watch the Supers jump ship!!!!!! Funny again , because I never voted for the Blackman running, I will be classiefied as a racist, that I don't like people of color , and all the other BS, that goes along from this posting, when infact, the racist here in question , is not the ones who simply can't stand the BS propaganda that Obama spews day in day out , longwinded Bs retoric that he spills out daily, and simply saying nothing at all ,same as Bushwacker had done , and still does today, and the ignorant ones , eating up his spew, and truly believeing this political misfit called Obama, But the racist here is infact Obama , Rev.Wright , and his non white allowed Church, and his own Church Congregation.!!!! Whats is worse , Here is Obama, running for the President of the United States of America, Smiling , and shaking the hands of Americans, and he refuses to Salute the American Flag!!!! You better wake up Americans, no Hillary has this sewed up from here on out . She will be the next American President of the United States of America. I will leave you with this , and I will write no more, my Father asked me . " Son when you came home , knowing you were in trouble ,who were you most afraid of me or Mom.?? My answer to him , "was Mom". And it was true. he told me , he said he knew, and he said I was right , that he was too!!! You see Son(he said), Men have been running this country for over 250 years , and messing it up , it is now the time for a Woman to come in and "CLEAN OUT THE HOUSE!!!" And you know what America , He is DAMN WELL RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! nativeAmerican
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- nativeAmerican
- 2 months ago
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Wow, where to start? Pretty sure Hillary won't be winning OR and the pole showing Hillary winning a straight overall ballot at this point does NOT exist. Trinity Church is not all black and CERTAINLY not non-white. Why you would support an admitted liar over a qualified candidate is of course your prerogative but hard to fathom. And your relationship with your mom not withstanding we don't need a President that we need to fear anymore. That day has passed. We need one that can lead with logic and wisdom as opposed to smoke and mirrors.
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And once again. Who is calling you a racist for not supporting Obama? I'm not. I'll call you racist if you say racist things, but simply who you choose to support in this election doesn't qualify. What's more I feel like Clinton supporters are starting to use it as an excuse. Yes it is a close race. But close is not tied, sometimes tied isn't even tied (as we saw in Florida in 2000). Democrats aren't going to hand the nomination to the person who came in second...we'll leave that to republicans.
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If men have been messing this country up for years, then why is America prosperous. I don't see the logic.
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...and where's this "close" race we're talking about. This race isn't close, it's OVER. Don't get caught up in Hillary's hype. She could win every contest from here on out and still come up short. People saw her for what she truly is, the consummate politician. We don't need another common politician. We need and exceptional one.
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SRJ...
Really!!!
Let me ask you a question, what has she really done in her so call experience besides contributing to the down fall of our economy with NAFTA deals and voting for the war in Iraq? Where in her experience qualifies her to lead this country out of a slump when she can't organize her on campaign?
She is a represenitive of the old politics filled with lobbiest now licking their wounds because they won't dictate America's agenda again.
