Historians: Obama will trounce McCain, democratic lanslide win in the fall
Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.
"This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.
“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.
End of Excerpt
Sources: Politico, http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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- current89
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- added June 15, 2008
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Interesting.
As much as I enjoy historical references to past wins and losses, I don't want Sen. Obama to succeed based on the unpopularity of the current president or how much Sen. McCain can be compared to him.
I want Sen. Obama to succeed because he represents a new, hopeful approach in how to run an administration that the rest of the world can respect and admire as much as I will. -
A dead heat huh?
I wonder.....
Senator McCain was almost out of the race months ago and now he is the nominee...
With the high cost of The War, all the atrocities Bush & Company have committed against us...
And now Gas ...
You would think it would be a cake walk?
Now, If Obama & the congress would get off their collective backsides and
DO SOMETHING...
Maybe Obama will win..
I'm thinking about that old Fairy Tale about
The Tortoise and The Hare...Now it seems that the Hare was in a race with The Tortoise, who was always very slow. So the Hare played games,went this way and that but didn't pay much attention to the race.
The Tortoise, however, just kept going following the track, over hill and dale, past trees and streams, just plodding along.
Both participants kept this up for a while until finally, the race ended, with the Tortoise winning even though the Hare was much faster.
I believe that McCain is the Tortoise here and Obama is the Hare....
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- PatrickEdwardMurray
- 1 year ago
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McCain is a tortoise all right. You got that one correct, PEM.
Who wants an aging reptile for President?!
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Let's hope this headline is right!
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- Colonial_Zombie
- 1 year ago
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Correct if I'm wrong; every time that the media predicts a landslide for the Democrats, don't the Republicans usually come out victorious? It's never happened the other way around either.
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- cerealforeal
- 1 year ago
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If and only if Obama can keep his mouth "disciplined" and not let loose with "Typical White Woman" and Pennsylvanians stick to their guns and religion...
the guy might have a chance....
I wouldn't place my bets though because there are things he has said that the media haven't picked up on yet....
And I'm sure McCain will...
No excuses please..
If you want to run for President you better darn know
your stuff...Backwards...Forwards and Sideways too!
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- PatrickEdwardMurray
- 1 year ago
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I would feel much better about the guy if he would...
LEAD the Congress now...!
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- PatrickEdwardMurray
- 1 year ago
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8 years of the dark side...now time for 8 years of clarity, truth, and repair
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- Wessagusset_Oracle
- 1 year ago
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mccain hasn't a chance but for election fraud.
Obama could win the election right now.
Obama is a man of substance, morals, integrity, hope and vision - Exactly what America and the world needs.
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- VoyagerFilms
- 1 year ago
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McCain is Bush lite
Obama is an arrogant idiot.
That is why they are in a dead heat
Fear not though, theres plenty of time for both sides to F**k this up
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- SilenceNoMore
- 1 year ago
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Last mistake loses!
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Since when do historians forecast the future? Of course when they are "Politico historians".
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Even if Obama is ahead, supporters can not stop getting out the votes until the very end.
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- shroomfairy
- 1 year ago
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Huntre got it right.
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Always heard that the South was gonna rise again...They must be desperate.
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The country is getting sick of the do nothing democrats that have run congers for two years. Rising gas prices and all they can think of is taxing oil companies more. The oil companies will just pass the tax on to us in even higher gas prices. That's just what we need. In the mean time I'm sure they will hold more hearing on drug use in major league base ball and try to blame ceo's for the problems that the democrats created. But if the republicans want to win they will need to step up and get back to their conservative roots.
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Republicans, Hillary and Haters, this election is about you and I and what's best for this country. Can we afford to lose it voting for McCain and what he represents. Just think about what McCain has done and what he has stated along with what he's offering. Especially, Women, what would it really mean if he's elected as our president? What we have worked for will be lost.
Men, it means Draft, not voluntary mandatory because we will be in another war we can't support nor have enough in our military to fight the new World War III. If America, can reach deep down into their pockets to support a war that never should have transpired, why not support getting America out of debt and stable? Why oppose a higher tax, versus losing your home? Why not support every child with the appropriate education etc...?
I would like someone on this blog to answer these questions and please make sense.
Curious
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This is of course assuming that there is an election in November and that the choice of the people actually makes it to January 20th.
The Roosevelt/Hoover analogy is telling though. America is on a knife-edge, like in 1928.
But how do you handle the distinct possibility that 51% of the electorate might want and might vote for might choose a fascist dictatorship?
The last eight years have suggested that our institutions are not as durable as we were taught in civcs.
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- CaptSutter
- 1 year ago
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The best way we can, grin and bear with it until that 51% comes to grips on how they voted. But it's their choice likewise mine, I can only hope and do my part. Are you in? I have a 2 dollar bill, lol.
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McCain isn't a maverick, he's following whatever Bush and our money making friends advicers tells him. I just don't see leadership in McCain, not for the middle class nor the poor. Oops what middle!
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After the last 8 years, I'm not putting anything past anyone. If the election was based on merit, ok, then sure. B.Ob all the way. But it isn't. Most Americans could care less about the issues and platforms. The average American sees a black dude running against a white dude. It's up to everyone who wants to see this country change for the better to continue to disseminate information so ignorance will not decide the fate of us all. We need this one, my friends.
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Well I do see Obama as a good leader and he seems to just overwhelm McCain when it comes to energy and delivery of his stance for President; but there is just so much more about these two people that isn't covered in the press and in most of the internet and wherever else. Besides being powerful politicians,these guys are people just like us - not TV stars, try to keep this in mind, folks.
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- Scottishman
- 1 year ago
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McCain doesn't stand a chance. I'm sorry but dudes goin down the tubes FAST!
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- ssppeencceerr
- 1 year ago
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It ain't over until the votes are counted (or miscounted). There is always the chance that somebody will drag something out of Obama's closet or whatever.
Those of us who and change have to vote. Obama has to win by a landslide, so even if there are a million hanging chads, the winner will still be clear.
I'm still not sure what Obama has planned to fix all the mess the Bush Dynasty has created - but I do know I don't want four more years of the Republican War Machine.
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you guys are going to be so disapointed when another dem canidate loses by a hair.







