We're still screwed ...
- added June 28, 2008
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- rwylie
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Recent claims have been made that our oil shortage is 'a myth' (see lecoke's article), but I'm sure I'm not the only one who can see that this completely avoids the real issue.
One particular analyst correctly criticises the method by which oil companies have been calculating their total reserves (they add up single estimated values rather than the more accurate way of combining probabilities). This may be good news for the big oil execs, but we should really be seeing through it.
Yes, we may well be underestimating what is left in the ground, not to mention the increasingly sophisticated ways which are being developed to image previously undetectable oilfields. However, the time of large discoveries on the the scale of the 1960's UK 'Forties' field (in which production now appears to be slowing), is by all accounts, over. We understandably found all the large, easy oilfields first, and, whichever way you look at it, more people, more demand, and undeniably less oil will soon equal no oil.
While the current spike in oil prices is is due in part to the complicated global economic situation, the effect of even the small fall in production we are experiencing now would be nothing compared to when a significant number of major wells run dry (check the link: it's not happy reading).
With even conservative estimates indicating that oil production will peak by 2010, now is really the time for the world to open it's eyes or, much more likely, to pay the price.
Any ideas?!
One particular analyst correctly criticises the method by which oil companies have been calculating their total reserves (they add up single estimated values rather than the more accurate way of combining probabilities). This may be good news for the big oil execs, but we should really be seeing through it.
Yes, we may well be underestimating what is left in the ground, not to mention the increasingly sophisticated ways which are being developed to image previously undetectable oilfields. However, the time of large discoveries on the the scale of the 1960's UK 'Forties' field (in which production now appears to be slowing), is by all accounts, over. We understandably found all the large, easy oilfields first, and, whichever way you look at it, more people, more demand, and undeniably less oil will soon equal no oil.
While the current spike in oil prices is is due in part to the complicated global economic situation, the effect of even the small fall in production we are experiencing now would be nothing compared to when a significant number of major wells run dry (check the link: it's not happy reading).
With even conservative estimates indicating that oil production will peak by 2010, now is really the time for the world to open it's eyes or, much more likely, to pay the price.
Any ideas?!
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