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War with Iran will not stop "nuclear program".


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A U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could set Tehran's program back years but would raise the risk of retaliation against American troops in the region and of driving Iran to work even harder to make atomic weapons, U.S. experts and officials say.
Any U.S. attack -- something the Pentagon insists is not planned but is subject of frequent speculation as Iran defies calls to rein in its nuclear program -- could involve thousands of sorties and missile launches against hundreds of targets.It would be limited to air strikes, rather than a full-scale attack requiring U.S. ground forces, who are now tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, analysts said.

But the strike would be hampered by a lack of intelligence on the number and location of the nuclear facilities dispersed throughout Iran, according to nuclear security experts.

At best, many experts say a U.S. strike could delay Iran's nuclear weapons capability by three to five years. Parts of the program would likely survive, perhaps even critical technologies and certainly know-how.

"We could set it back probably at least several months maybe a few years but then we run the risk of stimulating them to work even harder next time, burying facilities even deeper, putting in more air defence batteries," said Charles Ferguson, nuclear expert at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.facilities are scattered throughout the country and could be included as targets, experts speculated. Satellite pictures suggest Iran has dug tunnels around Natanz, for example, which could contain uranium enrichment equipment.

Nuclear research facilities in Iran's capital might be targeted as well, but such strikes raise the risk of civilian casualties and the attendant risk of international uproar, said U.S. defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.The military risks, however, are high, according to both defense analysts and officials.

Primary among them is the possibility of retaliation against U.S. troops by Islamist militant groups Washington says Tehran supports. The U.S. military accuses Iran of training and equipping the Shi'ite militias in Iraq, which are seen by U.S. commanders as one of the largest threats in that country.

But particularly frightening to officials inside the Pentagon is the possibility Iran would use suicide boats to attack U.S. ships in the Gulf or to disrupt crude oil trade.
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