OPEC warns against military conflict with Iran

Abdalla Salem El-Badri, left, the OPEC secretary general, met in April with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. (Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters)
OPEC warns against military conflict with Iran
By James Kanter Published: July 10, 2008


VIENNA: The head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned Thursday that oil prices would see an "unlimited" increase in the case of a military conflict involving Iran, because the group's members would be unable to make up the lost production.

"We really cannot replace Iran's production - it's not feasible to replace it," Abdalla Salem El-Badri, the OPEC secretary general, said during an interview.

Iran, the second-largest producing country in OPEC, after Saudi Arabia, produces about 4 million barrels of oil a day out of the daily worldwide production of close to 87 million barrels. The country has been locked in a lengthy dispute with Western countries over its nuclear ambitions.

In recent weeks, the price of oil has risen higher on speculation that Israel could be preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The saber-rattling intensified this week with missile tests by Iran. That has further shaken oil markets because of concerns that any conflict with Iran could disrupt oil shipments from the Gulf region.

"The prices would go unlimited," Badri said during the interview, referring to the effect of a military conflict. "I can't give you a number."

Analysts said the timing of Badri's remarks was noteworthy, given that the idea of an attack on Iran has been around for years. In addition, an attack on Iran would probably not specifically target oil facilities, said Johannes Benigni, managing director of JBC, an oil research and consulting firm in Vienna.

"Perhaps OPEC wants to say to the Americans in particular that there would be an economic price to be paid for an attack on Iran," said Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "Gulf leaders also know that if a war broke out, the situation of some Gulf states also would become more uncomfortable and could have political difficulties for them domestically," he said, noting that some have their own Shia minorities.

Badri, a former oil executive who has headed the oil industry in Libya and also served as deputy prime minister of that country, called for a peaceful solution. He also suggested that an additional military conflict in the Middle East, besides the ongoing conflict in Iraq, would be severe and long-lasting.

"If something happened there, nobody would be able to solve it," he said.

The United States, Israel and other Western countries say Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, but Iran says the program is only for civilian purpos