India's Nuclear Brinksmanship

Even in the cacophony of Indian politics, there is one thing that everyone seems to agree on: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has absolute faith in his country's controversial civilian nuclear deal with the U.S. So unshakable is his commitment to the agreement, which would give India access to U.S. technology to help slake India's soaring demand for electricity, that Singh has bet his political future on it. "It's completely personal for him," says Prem Shankar Jha, a columnist for New Delhi's Outlook magazine. "The Prime Minister is determined to do this."

On July 22, Singh will find out whether his gamble has paid off — or if it has cost him his four-year-old administration. That's the date when Singh's centrist Congress Party faces a vote of confidence on the floor of Parliament, a vote brought about by the recent exit from Singh's coalition government of the country's two main leftist parties, which bolted in protest over the nuclear deal. Even if Singh manages to rally enough supporters to retain a majority and stay in office, there could be lasting fallout. In parliamentary elections expected to be held early next year, Singh's Congress Party colleagues could find themselves targeted by an angry electorate for putting so much effort into foreign policy while India's citizens face an economic slowdown and the worst inflation the country has seen in 13 years.

The agreement that has caused so much turmoil in Indian politics — and so much trouble for Singh — is a version of a pact that the U.S. has signed with more than a dozen other nations. It would open up nuclear-materials trade between the U.S. and India, with the proviso that some of India's nuclear reactors be open to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. That's a big concession for India, which withstood international sanctions and withering criticism after its 1998 nuclear weapons tests and has chafed ever since at the idea of submitting its nuclear program to any outside review. But the country needs clean energy, and signing the agreement would be a first step toward joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) — the club of 45 nations committed to both nuclear energy and nonproliferation. With U.S. backing, the NSG may allow India to join even though the country has not signed the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.