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'Inevitable' UK disease pandemic: 75,000 could be killed

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Britain faces an "inevitable" disease pandemic which will kill up to 75,000 people, says a powerful Lords Committee. Changes in lifestyle are leading to new infections and providing them with opportunities to spread rapidly, the report warns. An outbreak in Britain will cause "massive" disruption, it concludes.

"Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between two million and 50 million people worldwide and between 50,000 and 75,000 in the UK. Socio-economic disruption will be massive." The committee says that with three quarters of newly emerging human infections originating from animals, more stringent ways of detecting diseases are needed.

Lord Soley, the chairman of the committee, said: "The last 100 years have seen great advances in public health and disease control through the world, but globalisation and changes in lifestyles are giving rise to new infections and providing opportunities for them to spread rapidly. "We are particularly concerned about the link with animal health."

Peers are calling for new international disease surveillance systems in developing countries, so the West is alerted to the threat. The Government should consider "urgently" how it funds aid projects with developing countries so the money is spent most effectively to help "Britain's own defences" against pandemics.

The last two pandemics – in 1958 and 1968 – were caused by relatively mild strains of influenza. But the report warns that the next one could have more serious consequences, especially if it comes from the H5N1 variety, which is found in birds and poultry, and which has already jumped the species barrier to infect some humans. The report says that bird flu "at some point in the near future" could become capable of "human to human transmission".

(Excerpts / Andrew Porter, Telegraph)
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40 responses // 'Inevitable' UK disease pandemic: 75,000 could be killed

  • I hope this doesn't end up like 28 days later
    rajajajamjar
    2 responses to this
  • That's... a very scary story. I wonder how they know it's 'inevitable', and even estimate the death tolls in the UK and across the world..? Is it based on historical models or something else?
    purplefox
    1 response to this
  • I wonder how many more disease hypes we have to hear about before there actually is one. West Nile, SARS, Avian Flu....I'm still waiting.
    SilenceNoMore
  • I think in our intelligence as a race we're always desperately seeking control, but with cases like this I feel it's just natural cycles of nature doing it's thing.

    We can see and fear these things when they are coming, but I feel we are powerless to stop nature when it acts.
    recommended by  saverio
    phillyharper
  • I think one cannot control nature but they can be aware of how nature works and do things that will alter something that is bad to something less bad or more manageable.

    Like HIV. It could have been contained and kept to a few people if people were smart enough to understand how it transfered and cared how it transfered.

    People don't care. They think they are above the norm and therefore can do whatever and be fine....except those are the people that make it difficult for everyone else.
    J_Jammer
    1 response to this
  • LOL i just realized....they say its definately bound to happen, but dont say when......Oh jimmy...get prepared, the plague is comming back in 400 years!
    SilenceNoMore
  • http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/duffy81a.html
    This is a pretty serious story. I urge all of you to read this story and mp3 I've linked to and do a YouTube search for "Operation: Dark Winter."

    http://www.archive.org/details/July252001WarningOfBio-w...

    "Although smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980, two official repositories of the variola virus were kept: one at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and the other at the Russian State Research Center for Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Novosibirsk in central Siberia. Those supplies were to be used for scientific research and vaccine development, but it is now known that both countries maintained secret biological weapons programs since 1980. By 1990 the Soviet Union had a facility capable of producing 80 to 100 tons of smallpox a year, and it typically warehoused 20 tons. Although Russia and the United States have since abandoned their biological weapons programs, other countries still have them."
    maasanova
    1 response to this
  • very scary.......oh, how i pray for peace everyday......we as humans have been blessed with the ability to find new ways to hurt others (and possibly destroy every living species on this planet).....with that i know that we also have been given the abilities to find new ways to heal others......lets just hope there are more healers in the world than destructors......
    PAINTERGRL
  • There are a variety of "extra special" problems all happening at once:

    The over-use/mis-use of antibotics over the last 50 years is creating deadly strains of super bugs.

    The massive amount of globalization means that the filthy/unsanitary conditions in (just as a random example) certain parts of China could impact people worldwide simultaneously and overwhelm our ability to contain it.

    The lack of resources being put into R&D to fight emergent diseases.

    Climate change (whether its madmade or not doesn't matter) means that news diseases and new bugs are emerging in places that typically haven't seen them before.

    Yeah, I'd say some kind of outbreak is inevitable. If we're prepared it shouldn't be to bad, but the problem is there's more money in designing the next Viagra than the next malaria vaccince -- so we probably won't be prepared unless the government takes a more serious role.

    Relying on the free market to work on vaccinces isn't going to be sufficent.
    crob80227
  • I know it sounds sick, but this kind of needs to happen. We are overpopulating the world. Did you know that Polar bears would survive the melting of the ice caps but the places they would move to now have humans living there?
    thekingbeyond
    2 responses to this
  • There is more than enough land for the amount of humans that are here.
    J_Jammer
    4 responses to this
  • Remind me of a movie and a book. While the details may be different it does have some similarities to the book 1984, and V for Vendetta. We could so a new totalitarian English government.
    TEC_Photos18
  • There might be enough physical land for humans to stand on.....but is there enough fresh water? is there enough food? is there enough energy? Is there enough vaccines? Enough medicine?

    Can Arizona easily support 10,000 people?

    Sure.

    Can it support millions? Tens of millions? Isn't there a certain tipping point wherein living in an extreme desert just won't support that many people and there just isn't enough water to go around?

    Same with Africa. Can Africa support tens of thousands of hunter-gatherers? No problem! Can Africa support tens of millions (in terms of fresh water, food, energy, etc) at First World standards of livings? Possibly. Can they support 100's of millions without cutting down all the rainforests?

    We're hitting that point where, no, there isn't enough resources for everyone all over the world. Something is going to have to give.

    Personally, I'm moving closer to the Great Lakes. Keep that fresh water supply close.
    crob80227
  • OMG IM SO SCARED!!!

    almsot as scared as i was the last 20 times they told me i was going to die
    clayjj05
  • I don't know if these warning are meant to "scare" anyone so much as they're designed to alert the governments as to possible threats so that they (the government) can work to create counter-measures.

    Maybe divert a few more resources and cash to stock piling vaccines, rewrite emergency plans on how to handle epidemics, make sure government agencies have the proper tools, equipment and training.
    crob80227
  • This is just more problem reaction solution.

    Governments creates the crisis (problem) when they have been admittedly monkeying around with military grade bioweapons like the single serve anthrax that was delivered to Tom Daschale (which came from Ft Detrick, MD), panic ensues and people get sick and die (reaction), then drug and pharmaceutical companies step in and in offer drugs (solution).

    So you get 1) civilian depopulation (for all of you who think the world is over-crowded) 2) you get a militarized police state for more control over the population (which all government wants) 3) drug companies get massive profits.
    maasanova
  • wow maasanova,

    That's a really good conspiracy-theory way of looking at it. I hope you have your foil-hat ready for the invasion!

    In reality, our massive factory farms which keep animals in close, dirty conditions ultimately create and cultivate nasty viruses and bacteria which can easily get into the human population because we're eating the junk. Also, humans sometimes contract diseases from wild animals that are not used in factory farming or are kept in captivity. The Bird Flu, and Mad Cow disease, E. Coli and Salmonella are all good examples.

    Unlike massanova, we should all be thankful that we have a government that is somewhat ready and capable to respond to a massive public heath crisis. The CDC, FDA, and the USDA have prevented thousands of diseases from getting out of control and becoming pandemics. Vaccinations, research and prevention are all keys to stopping pandemics before they start.
    Colonial_Zombie
    1 response to this
  • As bad as these projections are, they aren't as bad as what happened during the 1918 flu pandemic. By the time that one had gone it's course an estimated 100 million had died worldwide.
    Mark701
  • Add it to the list.
    damnneargenius
  • Dmitri_Molotov
  • http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/07/01/1056825376086...
    Colonial_Zombie I nominate you for depopulation. Your government doesn't give a rats ass about you. Here's just one example of why:

    US admits to 50 secret tests of bio weapons on troops

    "The Pentagon used potentially dangerous chemical and biological agents in 50 secret tests involving US military personnel in a decade-long project to measure the weapons' combat capabilities, according to Pentagon findings.

    The tests were done between 1962 and 1973 and involved 5,842 service members. Many were not told of the tests, some of which involved releases of deadly nerve agents in Alaska and Hawaii.

    Most of the tests made public today used the benign bacterium bacillus globigii to simulate how biological weapons agents would spread through the hold of a ship.

    One test, called "Blue Tango", entailed spraying two types of bacteria, including E. coli, in a rainforest in Hawaii in 1968 to gauge how they bacteria would linger in the vegetation.

    Another, "Folded Arrow", involved spraying bacillus globigii from a submarine over part of Oahu, Hawaii, and over several boats off the coast in 1968 to gauge how Venezuelan equine encephalitis would be carried by wind. "
    maasanova
  • "um, you need plastic coffins? cause we got plastic coffins," says U.S.
    dwb2585
  • This is going to be man made.
    This will be world wide over time.
    Its all planned out skull and bones.
    regularrf
  • Get your daily dose of scare tactics right here folks!
    mookster_07
  • Anyone remember the Vandguard report that covered the wild animal markets in China.?

    Where the people actually lived by and above animals that were stuffed into cages way too small... the reporter cried at the condition of the animals, and could not handle the stench. I never knew that life had that little value, but cultural differences happen.

    We all knew that dogs and cats were on the menu in the world, horses and primates also. But to see it... even the animals "for sale' in inhumane conditions shock us.

    I pray the flu never comes. If any country gets it, the world will, as international as we are these days.
    arcticspirit
  • The idea of it being used as biological warfare is indeed awful.

    I believe that many countries have bio-warefare as means for genocide, war, whatever-- tech presently.

    It is not a new idea... think of "poisoning the wells" to cull entire groups of people...

    Bio weapons just do it faster. It's truly sad.

    Humanity can have infinite good and compassion, yet in humanity some are void of compassion and are evil by nature/culture/nurture.

    One only wonders... could this flu could be worse than man made illnesses.
    arcticspirit
  • Wait a minute, What about swine flu? That was suppose to be the next panidemic.

    This Avian flu is old news. Universities need a new panidemic in order to get more grant money.

    New bacteria is coming from the over use of anti-biotics in cattle. Put that in your research pipe and smoke it.
    mo1y
    1 response to this

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