The Miseducation of Survey's

News stories based on surveys, polls, studies and statistics are everywhere. Wouldn't it be good to have the mental agility to separate the wheat from the chaff? In the first of a weekly series, author Michael Blastland gives some hints at getting to grips with surveys.

Lesson one: Surveys.
The story: "Motorists turn to public transport as fuel price bites" - Daily Record
"MORE than three in five drivers are turning to public transport due to high fuel prices, a survey has revealed. The survey by transport firm National Express found 61 per cent of car users are definitely or probably considering using public transport due to the rise in prices at the pumps."

The flaw: Suckered by a press release. This story gives the impression that motorists are leaving their cars at home, en masse, for - guess what? - services run by the company that did the survey. In fact, the surveyed motorists are not necessarily doing anything. They are "definitely or probably" thinking about doing something - which they might eventually do once, or often, or never.

The Lesson: Two points. The survey has apparently bundled together the more and the less inclined, the definites and the probables, so that we have no idea if only 1% of the 61% are definites, or if most are. And it gives no indication of how big a change in behaviour they are considering - every trip… or just one.

The second point is to wonder what it means to say you are "probably" thinking about something. Are they thinking that they will probably do it, but haven't made up their minds? Maybe it means they are not sure what they are thinking, but if they had to guess what they are thinking then it would "probably" be something about petrol. Maybe it doesn't mean anything.

And are they actually doing it, as the headline suggests? No idea.