News and Politics | June 15, 2008 | 62 comments

Historians: Obama will trounce McCain, democratic lanslide win in the fall

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current89
One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

"This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

End of Excerpt
Sources: Politico, http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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62 comments // Historians: Obama will trounce McCain, democratic lanslide win in the fall

  • arcticspirit
    • 0
      arcticspirit  
    • umm I don't think that senator McCain has even campaigned in my area (PA).

      One thing I noticed... Obama says HOPE, Change... Well, both candidates will make CHANGE & HOPE; it is a matter of a weaker or a stronger country with the kind of "change" they produce.

      I hope he has some kick ass advisers. I totally like him but don't think his record or his ideas are experienced enough to handle the USA in this particular time in history. Before 1990, the world was different.. all the past would have been forgiving for this type of inexperience, but not now.

      I'm all for minorities in office. Think about it we are all HUMANS and the amount of melatonin in the skin is a very stupid way to count or not count someone. Same with what sex they are. Who cares! What is important is policy, experience and success.

      thanks for reading.

    • 3 years ago
  • terrific
    • 0
      terrific  
    • Regardless of who wins the election, he's going to have to get off his rear & do something to remedy all of the missteps that the Bush administration has made. If it's Barack Obama, fine. If it's John McCain, fine. I just want something positive to get done & I couldn't care less which candidate actually does it.

    • 3 years ago
  • Kylsport
    • 0
      Kylsport  
    • If I had a nickel for everytime someone said 'the experts predict', I could fill my vehicle with gasoline for the rest of my life, regardless of the increase in gasoline prices. My experience with 'so called experts' is that they have a tendency to get tunnel vision. Take for example my medical physician who is an expert in infectious diseases, he failed to do a standard blood test to determine I have a stomach bacteria. With his expertise, he assumed it was the medicine I was on, since that medicine typically causes the same symptoms the bacteria caused.

      As I deviate from the topic...these so called experts and those who agree with them would like for us to believe what they say, but as we all know, it is us independents and undecided, who determine the results of elections. Therefore, you can continue hyping your position, but I will see you on the other side after all is said and done.

    • 3 years ago
  • thedismembermentplan
  • leftbutright
    • 0
      leftbutright  
    • Our country has an opportunity that only appears every generation or so, that defining moment that allows us to reach another level in our development. This is our chance, a test that will show the world that principles we espouse in theory can actually come to fruition......I sure hope that we don't fail this test we are being put to.....a chance to once and for all prove that in this land of opportunity, that truly, we can rise above our prejudice and fears and come together as one for the common good.

    • 3 years ago
  • MoonLoon
  • JohnA
    • 0
      JohnA  
    • If hating George Bush was the only criteria for choosing a President, we would be voting to re-elect John Kerry this year.

    • 3 years ago
  • MoonLoon
    • 0
      MoonLoon  
    • Good, let Barack win! He will still have to perform. We can then all sit back and snipe at the idiocies of a Democratic leadership. He is a typical politician, talking head, with no substance. I cannot wait for his true nature to be revealed.

    • 3 years ago
  • nodonjuan
  • Kylsport
    • 0
      Kylsport  
    • nodonjuan:

      I have heard the same remark about Hillary. The unsubstantiated name calling gives me hope for upcoming election, as it does not sway any opinions in your direction. :o)~

    • 3 years ago
  • SpookyFish
    • 0
      SpookyFish  
    • I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another situation similar to the '04 election, with McCain winning just barely, if even at all.

      Because, you know that right before the election, McCain's going to bust out every scare-tactic in the book, all while constantly mentioning that he's a war hero.

    • 3 years ago
  • Vasqi
    • 0
      Vasqi  
    • Votes only count if we cast them. It doesn't matter how optimistic or pessimistic we might be about the legitimacy of our democratic process after the past 8 years of watching Republicans mangle it and decades of watching our respective parties nominating half wits for us to choose from. If you don't vote, your vote doesn't matter and that means your opinion doesn't matter. It's silly to hear people who praise the United States for its democracy, and condemning other countries that are dictatorships, and then turn right around and opt not to vote for whatever ridiculous reason. The bottom line is, if you don't vote, then your opinion doesn't matter; if you don't vote, then you don't matter. Under no circumstances would I allow someone who doesn't matter, to sway me into not votting; to sway me into not mattering as well.

    • 3 years ago
  • 4iron
    • 0
      4iron  
    • Chankina, Mccain will not institute the draft it will remain an all volunteer military. The war in Irag was legal and just for many reason's. As for home mortgages, home owners should not use their home as a atm and unfair lending practices should be prosecuted. Finally, does education for every child include college ? I hope this helped

    • 3 years ago
  • drewsuf721
  • ShadesOfInsanity
    • 0
      ShadesOfInsanity  
    • All of you saying McCain will win are forgetting Obama's nuclear weapon (lol, Bush, get em, get em!) is the youth. In the past, the voting booths would be filled with fat, white, aging Republican men winning for the destruction of this country, but this year, we will see the new, open-minded youths pulling out and winning for what's right: Obama.

    • 3 years ago
  • JohnA
  • iameam
    • 0
      iameam  
    • clayjj05 is right...

      All this talk about Mcain winning or losing is intellectual masturbation. You all are welcome to your opinions, I just really like using that phrase.

      In any case, the last 2 elections were both stolen by "those" who has the power to do that sort of thing. How the hell else could Bush have possibly won the last election after being such a doofus for his first term?

      Watch the film Hacking Democracy and you all will see that we have a serious scandal on our hands. After watching the film, one might wonder if our votes count.

      If Obama doesn't win, and especially if there is anything fishy that goes on during the elections, it's gonna get wild in this country.

    • 3 years ago
  • timunuhe
  • drewsuf721
    • 0
      drewsuf721  
    • iameam:

      '04 - He was a war president, and people are afraid of the word 'terrorist'.

      Nothing will get wild in this country, everyone is far too complacent with their 'wealth'. The older generation of Americans are materialist idiots, and the younger generation are still made of clay. Obama must be elected to give our only and last hope the time needed to solidify. Otherwise, I'm goin' expatriate from that sinking ship of masturbation.

    • 3 years ago
  • menmykoko
  • clayjj05
  • Kylsport
    • 0
      Kylsport  
    • menmykoko:

      I am a moderate Democrat that looks like I will have to vote for a Republican. We don't have a Democratic candidate, instead, they have packaged us a Socialist Commie in "Blue Clothing".

    • 3 years ago
  • clayjj05
  • patsarts
    • 0
      patsarts  
    • It ain't over until the votes are counted (or miscounted). There is always the chance that somebody will drag something out of Obama's closet or whatever.

      Those of us who and change have to vote. Obama has to win by a landslide, so even if there are a million hanging chads, the winner will still be clear.

      I'm still not sure what Obama has planned to fix all the mess the Bush Dynasty has created - but I do know I don't want four more years of the Republican War Machine.

    • 3 years ago
  • ssppeencceerr
  • Scottishman
    • 0
      Scottishman  
    • Well I do see Obama as a good leader and he seems to just overwhelm McCain when it comes to energy and delivery of his stance for President; but there is just so much more about these two people that isn't covered in the press and in most of the internet and wherever else. Besides being powerful politicians,these guys are people just like us - not TV stars, try to keep this in mind, folks.

    • 3 years ago
  • AreOh
    • 0
      AreOh  
    • After the last 8 years, I'm not putting anything past anyone. If the election was based on merit, ok, then sure. B.Ob all the way. But it isn't. Most Americans could care less about the issues and platforms. The average American sees a black dude running against a white dude. It's up to everyone who wants to see this country change for the better to continue to disseminate information so ignorance will not decide the fate of us all. We need this one, my friends.

    • 3 years ago
  • JohnA
  • chankina
    • 0
      chankina  
    • McCain isn't a maverick, he's following whatever Bush and our money making friends advicers tells him. I just don't see leadership in McCain, not for the middle class nor the poor. Oops what middle!

    • 3 years ago
  • current89
  • chankina
    • 0
      chankina  
    • The best way we can, grin and bear with it until that 51% comes to grips on how they voted. But it's their choice likewise mine, I can only hope and do my part. Are you in? I have a 2 dollar bill, lol.

    • 3 years ago
  • CaptSutter
    • 0
      CaptSutter  
    • This is of course assuming that there is an election in November and that the choice of the people actually makes it to January 20th.

      The Roosevelt/Hoover analogy is telling though. America is on a knife-edge, like in 1928.

      But how do you handle the distinct possibility that 51% of the electorate might want and might vote for might choose a fascist dictatorship?

      The last eight years have suggested that our institutions are not as durable as we were taught in civcs.

    • 3 years ago
  • chankina
    • 0
      chankina  
    • Republicans, Hillary and Haters, this election is about you and I and what's best for this country. Can we afford to lose it voting for McCain and what he represents. Just think about what McCain has done and what he has stated along with what he's offering. Especially, Women, what would it really mean if he's elected as our president? What we have worked for will be lost.

      Men, it means Draft, not voluntary mandatory because we will be in another war we can't support nor have enough in our military to fight the new World War III. If America, can reach deep down into their pockets to support a war that never should have transpired, why not support getting America out of debt and stable? Why oppose a higher tax, versus losing your home? Why not support every child with the appropriate education etc...?

      I would like someone on this blog to answer these questions and please make sense.

      Curious

    • 3 years ago
  • wislogger
    • 0
      wislogger  
    • The country is getting sick of the do nothing democrats that have run congers for two years. Rising gas prices and all they can think of is taxing oil companies more. The oil companies will just pass the tax on to us in even higher gas prices. That's just what we need. In the mean time I'm sure they will hold more hearing on drug use in major league base ball and try to blame ceo's for the problems that the democrats created. But if the republicans want to win they will need to step up and get back to their conservative roots.

    • 3 years ago
  • chankina
  • flagman
  • Robroy1
  • shroomfairy
  • mjsmith11
  • seeker561
  • SilenceNoMore
    • 0
      SilenceNoMore  
    • McCain is Bush lite

      Obama is an arrogant idiot.

      That is why they are in a dead heat

      Fear not though, theres plenty of time for both sides to F**k this up

    • 3 years ago
  • chankina
  • VoyagerFilms
    • 0
      VoyagerFilms  
    • mccain hasn't a chance but for election fraud.

      Obama could win the election right now.

      Obama is a man of substance, morals, integrity, hope and vision - Exactly what America and the world needs.

    • 3 years ago
  • clayjj05
  • kec5040
  • Wessagusset_Oracle
  • chankina
  • THEREisHOPE
  • PatrickEdwardMurray
  • PatrickEdwardMurray
    • 0
      PatrickEdwardMurray  
    • If and only if Obama can keep his mouth "disciplined" and not let loose with "Typical White Woman" and Pennsylvanians stick to their guns and religion...

      the guy might have a chance....

      I wouldn't place my bets though because there are things he has said that the media haven't picked up on yet....

      And I'm sure McCain will...

      No excuses please..

      If you want to run for President you better darn know
      your stuff...

      Backwards...Forwards and Sideways too!

    • 3 years ago
  • chankina
    • 0
      chankina  
    • PatrickEdwardMurray:

      Sometimes the truth hurts, being objective is an effective tool. Just ask yourself if there's any truth in what he stated. McCain my friend has made alot more derrogatory statements like that than Obama. I understand he's even that way with Cindy.

      And for goodness sake does he have to keep his mouth closed?

      Facing Reality,

      Hurts

    • 3 years ago
  • cerealforeal
    • 0
      cerealforeal  
    • Correct if I'm wrong; every time that the media predicts a landslide for the Democrats, don't the Republicans usually come out victorious? It's never happened the other way around either.

    • 3 years ago
  • current89
  • SilenceNoMore
  • Treatz
  • 96thdayofrage
  • PatrickEdwardMurray
    • 0
      PatrickEdwardMurray  
    • A dead heat huh?

      I wonder.....

      Senator McCain was almost out of the race months ago and now he is the nominee...

      With the high cost of The War, all the atrocities Bush & Company have committed against us...

      And now Gas ...

      You would think it would be a cake walk?

      Now, If Obama & the congress would get off their collective backsides and

      DO SOMETHING...

      Maybe Obama will win..

      I'm thinking about that old Fairy Tale about
      The Tortoise and The Hare...

      Now it seems that the Hare was in a race with The Tortoise, who was always very slow. So the Hare played games,went this way and that but didn't pay much attention to the race.

      The Tortoise, however, just kept going following the track, over hill and dale, past trees and streams, just plodding along.

      Both participants kept this up for a while until finally, the race ended, with the Tortoise winning even though the Hare was much faster.

      I believe that McCain is the Tortoise here and Obama is the Hare....

    • 3 years ago
  • neckfire
  • jspear
    • 0
      jspear  
    • PatrickEdwardMurray:

      This would only be true if America has it's head in the sand and does not vote. True, we have a candidate in Obama that is young and fast and a slow deliberate crazy republican but that does not mean that slow and safe wins the race. I am hoping that America wakes up and sees the world and our part in it....

    • 3 years ago
  • bishopobispo
  • huntre
    • 0
      huntre  
    • Interesting.
      As much as I enjoy historical references to past wins and losses, I don't want Sen. Obama to succeed based on the unpopularity of the current president or how much Sen. McCain can be compared to him.
      I want Sen. Obama to succeed because he represents a new, hopeful approach in how to run an administration that the rest of the world can respect and admire as much as I will.

    • 3 years ago
  • roooth
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