Experts warn of "Voter Bandwagon" effect
source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081030/pl_politico/15070
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- asherp
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If John McCain’s supporters are hoping for a “Bradley effect” bounce on Election Day, some pollsters and strategists say they may have another thing coming.
Beware of the “bandwagon effect.”
While the Bradley effect posits that some white voters who tell pollsters that they will vote for a black candidate often have second thoughts in the voting booth, the “bandwagon effect” suggests that a small but significant number of persuadable voters will decide at the last minute to go with "the winner."
[...]
While the politically savvy may scoff at the idea that people are voting based on popularity, Mutz says the notion of being influenced by others isn’t so unusual when taken out of the context of politics.
"It's not at all stupid to rely on consensus," she said. "If everyone's saying that a particular restaurant is horrible, are you going to insist on going there yourself? The idea that we shouldn't turn to others for help in decision making is kind of dumb in some ways."
Even if we won’t admit it.
"Some people are proud of being a racist," said a Democratic strategist. "Nobody's proud of being a lemming."
(more at link)
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- News and Politics, Election 2008, Current News US, Psychology
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ctrl_alt_del
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If you're voting for someone just "because they're winning LOL" please dont vote in the election and go vote instead for Dancing With The Stars.
- 3 years ago
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ctrl_alt_del
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rainbowryan420
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"Mutz says the notion of being influenced by others isn’t so unusual when taken out of the context of politics"
that's too true
try it yourself
next time a friend of yours says they like a band or a movie tell them you hate that band or movie and they will most likely say "oh, well their OK" - 3 years ago
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rainbowryan420
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sperritt
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Anyone else see the Nader effect as well. Now this time it is in the dems favor and there is more than one nader effect on the ticket. Any vote not going to Mccain is a good vote. GO OBAMA>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
- 3 years ago
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sperritt
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jjmaster
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My Short Summations on the Presidential election season: Geeze it's almost here... Election day. I don't know about how any of you think, but I have found it taxing! I'll be glad when it is resolved who our next President, et al will be! Geeze, it's been a good debate here at Current.com. Very enthusiastic voters (and non-voters)! I have believed all along that the Hierarchy Republicans have no intention of winning this presidential election... their damage is well in place and those power hungry crooks know that its time to go on vacation with the $ they stole from the American people. Now Senator Obama will need to watch his back... I lift him up in prayer for protection and wisdom in dealing with the crooks that remain in office that will try and control him. If Obama would get on the mean-clean regime his presidency will be a total success! If he sticks with the young people in mind, and really puts forth an effort... solutions to this fiasco can come forward! I pray for American Community to develop new technologies, and use our collective wisdom to make the right choices in the world. We must clean up after ourselves. It's time for us to speak out in committee. In front of the Congress/Senate. We must for instance get the message out about wanting a clean swoop of people from these government agencies that are run by corporations... Obama cannot on his own escape this... Nor could any party representative... Not even Ralph Nader. Now if Obama uses his wisdom, he can move forward. If only this website were at his use. As a people, we must command and demand changes be met by our government officials. We have some really good ones too you know. We've been exposed to some of their policies, here on Current.com. We have great resources and references on Current.com. So much can be done to change things always for the betterment of all, if people are more aware of their environment on a global sphere.
- 3 years ago
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jjmaster
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iloveravi
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Can we just call these "effects" what they are:
The closet racist Effect
and
The too-stupid-to-think-for-myself Effect
Thanks.
- 3 years ago
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iloveravi
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derk
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“Bandwagon effect?” Uh ... isn't it more like the "Rats-leaving-the-sinking ship effect?"
- 3 years ago
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derk
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CalgarC
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so mcain is mcdonalds
- 3 years ago
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CalgarC
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Neghie
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I usually like to get on the wagon before everyone else gets on. That way, I look like a maverick instead.
- 3 years ago
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Neghie
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sgwhites
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I hope there aren't that many voters who are just following the crowd when they vote.
What is 12seconds.tv? Well, in case you missed it, we’re throwing a huge election day party on Current and we’re inviting people to join in on TV using 12seconds webcams. Interested? Here’s what you do:
* Read up on Current’s election day coverage: http://current.com/items/89470286_we_re_throwing_a_soci...
* Go to 12seconds.tv to request an invite
* Direct Message Current on Twitter with an email address saying: “Hey, invite me to 12seconds!”
* Private Message myself or mario_a on Current.com for an invite.
http://current.com/people/sgwhites
http://current.com/people/mario_a - 3 years ago
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sgwhites
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rainbowryan420
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sgwhites:
12 seconds isn't long enough
- 3 years ago
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rainbowryan420
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rwylie
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These various "effects" pollers are warning of (bradley, reverse bradley, bandwagon) are might all just cancel each other out; hopefully leading to an overall "common sense" effect in the booths.
- 3 years ago
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rwylie
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96thdayofrage
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These manipulative poll-twisters are no more reliable than tarot cards, Ouigy boards, tea leaves, chicken blood drippings, bovine entrails, or my cracked, leaking Magic 8-ball.
The only poll that's going to matter is the one taken This coming Tuesday.
- 3 years ago
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96thdayofrage
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blabHERmouth
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“While the politically savvy may scoff at the idea that people are voting based on popularity, Mutz says the notion of being influenced by others isn’t so unusual when taken out of the context of politics.”
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Hello…
The whole ideology of political parties and political endorsements is based on the idea of being “influenced by others”. This bandwagon effect is obviously evident. Look at the number of bi-partisan endorsements Obama has gotten since his surge in the polls. The man has been standing on the SAME political platform since the Democratic Primary. Now that he is, by most accounts, projected to be the winner Republican endorsers have “seen the light”? More like they’ve seen the train wreck! With each passing day the McCain campaign gets more difficult to watch. It’s like a highway car crash… you don’t want to be involved… but you just can help rubbernecking! LOL
Gimmie a break… bottom line: People do not want to be on record for having supported a campaign this disastrous! And people hate being associated with a loosing party. How many times have you chuckled a bit when you saw a Bob Dole or Ross Perot bumper sticker? LOL
Campaigns last for months… but bumper stickers are FOREVER! Good luck scraping that off!
-Jaye :-)
- 3 years ago
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blabHERmouth
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pakazak
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LOL -
Cashmere that's a hoot.
I think it has the same weight as the 'close your eyes and press any key'. - 3 years ago
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pakazak
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damnneargenius
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Dear Lemmings,
Please remember Obama and McCain BOTH voted for the bailout...err, I mean "rescue" B.S. BEFORE it was even padded with more "sweetners". It doesn't take a rocket scientist with a crystal ball to point out that both of these candidates are in the pockets of very shady people and leading America towards that cliff.
Does it really matter who wins when the country as a whole loses?
- 3 years ago
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damnneargenius
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Cashmere
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What about the finger crossing effect? What does the research show on that?
- 3 years ago
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Cashmere
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poejelly
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VOTE or keep your mouth shut, thats all there is to it.
- 3 years ago
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poejelly
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pennyharford
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yes, I know many people who wait until the last minute, watch the TV, and then rush out and vote for "the winner". so silly. I voted last week absentee for Obama. I am not even cautiously optimistic. I hope for change. Please vote!
- 3 years ago
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pennyharford
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nessie00
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WHY DO YOU THINK 99% OF THE PRESS IS PUSHING OBAMA? THE THINKING IS THAT IF OBAMA IS WINNING BY A LANDSLIDE THEN THE GOP WILL BE DISALLUSIONED AND NOT BOTHER TO VOTE. DO NOT BELIEVE THE POLLS, THEY ARE POLITICALLY MOTIVATED. MAKE UP YOUR OWN MIND AND DO NOT BE SWAYED BY TALKING POINTS. WHOEVER YOU VOTE FOR PLEASE RESEARCH YOUR CANDIDATE DON'T JUST GO WITH THE POPULAR TIDE.
- 3 years ago
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nessie00
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pakazak
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the question was 'why is your negative campaign different from mccains?' which is the same type of query as 'when did stop beating your wife?' ... loaded and slanted to the negative.
he's answered the question and returned to his talking points.
if people have trouble following that, then they do belong with mccain.and liberal_extinction, save your name calling for your family.
- 3 years ago
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pakazak
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J_Jammer [removed]
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pakazak:
You're stating that Obama doesn't say anything negative about McCain?
- 3 years ago
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J_Jammer [removed]
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pakazak
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pakazak:
i think that obama saves the negativity for mccains policies.
of course, i could be wrong, it happens on an hourly basis, but i see obama trying to concentrate on issues. maybe 'a bush clone' is a negative comment. if i were the one going against mccain, i know i'd be all up in mccains butt about the keating affair, about crashing aircraft, about 'did you really crack as a POW?', about his divorce, about messing with the brazilian babe, about graduating (barely) at the bottom of his class....
you know, much the same way we keep hearing about how obama is pals with anti-american radicals.... don't even get me started on that :) - 3 years ago
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pakazak
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animalia_libero [removed]
- This comment was removed as a violation of community guidelines.
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animalia_libero [removed]
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J_Jammer [removed]
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animalia_libero:
And what is the cutoff? How many candidates is the right amount? There has to be a standard, which means you'll be keeping someone out no matter. But it will be your fault instead of the fault of the two parties.
- 3 years ago
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J_Jammer [removed]
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iloveravi
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animalia_libero:
I agree it's fucking sad pathetic and stupid to have closed debates. Way to stick it to the people.
- 3 years ago
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iloveravi
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J_Jammer [removed]
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I would go and eat at a restaurant that was said to be bad, just because.
Hopefully Obama keeps having his stuff either written for him or he keeps writing himself...but whatever it is he needs to do, he sure the hell doesn't need to speak without practicing first.
Because apparently even if the Wagon brings him to the White House he is channeling, too soon I might add, the President he'll be replacing a little too well.
- 3 years ago
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J_Jammer [removed]
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bdub4u
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organize
mobilize
vote
don't ever get cocky - 3 years ago
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bdub4u
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Scott_Bromley
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I've been burned by the bandwagon effect before. I was all confident and cocky thinking Sanjaya would take it, then me and my ponyhawk fans got cocky...and all of our dreams were shattered!
- 3 years ago
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Scott_Bromley
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J_Jammer [removed]
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Scott_Bromley:
So were the dreams of that website votefortheworst.com.
Nothing like a website that thinks it controls the world via a show they hate to claim they love.
- 3 years ago
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J_Jammer [removed]
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Tori
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I'm really hoping this is the year that the person I vote for for President wins!!! I haven't been so fortunate in any prior election...but maybe this year!
- 3 years ago
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Tori
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davidtaylor
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Tori:
Man, me too!
- 3 years ago
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davidtaylor
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BarackMarley
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I wonder if the 'Bradley' effect would happen to Black Sarah Palin?
- 3 years ago
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BarackMarley
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Pericles_Lewnes
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Everybody is all shook up about whether Obama is a Muslim. He is not and it doesn't matter if he is!
Nader is Lebanese (An ARAB!) why aren't people up his ass with a microscope?
I would also like to point out that the current AMERICAN that is the UNITED STATES representative to the United Nations and APPOINTED by the BUSH Administration is an AFGHAN MUSLIM!
His name is Zalmay Khalilzad. Look at his resume.
Snap out of it!
- 3 years ago
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Pericles_Lewnes
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keithponder
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Pericles_Lewnes:
SLAM DUNK, MY BROTHA !
- 3 years ago
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keithponder
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Vierotchka
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Oh, and it is precisely those who have woken up and smelled the coffee who are going to vote for Obama.
- 3 years ago
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Vierotchka
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Vierotchka
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Krenee, Obama's father didn't have the first drop of Arab blood in him. The only Kenyans who do have some Arab blood are the Swahilis and the Somalis, on the coast. Obama's father came from the Luo tribe in the south-west of Kenya, by Lake Victoria. Some of the Luo have converted to Islam, but by no means all of them - they did so mainly because Islam allows for polygamy whereas Christianity doesn't, and because Saudi Arabia is generous with money for building mosques and schools and so on.
- 3 years ago
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Vierotchka
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Paddlenround
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You want to see what the polls mean? Visit fivethirtyeight.com. It just the numbers...not liberal...not conservative. Polls can be twisted to the right or to the left based upon who you call. 538 takes all the data and puts both the left and right into the pool, weighs the accuracy and then gives you realistic data.
Nobody has pushed Obama in this election. The press has seized every opportunity to push him down. Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers and every other association they could find. The internet is FILLED with anti-Obama rhetoric both racist and pragmatic.
In the end, people make their own decisions. You can choose to believe Obama is an Arab, Muslim, Fraud. OR you can choose to believe he is an American, Christian, Leader. In the voting booth you get your say on these issues.
There is NOT a liberal conspiracy in this country. Turn on FoxNews and you can see that. You seem to forget who has been running the country for the last eight years. The Republicans have perpetuated this lie for a long time to help mobilize the vote. However, Hannity, O'Reilly, Limbaugh, Coutler are all household names. Can you name ONE popular exclusively left commentator in national media?
In America, it is OK to believe whatever you want. You can spread untruth and conspiracy theories until your mind spins. However, as we see everyday, the truth vets itself out. This guy has been under constant scrutiny for almost two years...and that is not including the time he has already served in public office. If the skeletons in his closet aren't out by now...they are never coming out.
- 3 years ago
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Paddlenround
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nodonjuan
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Paddlenround:
Not to mention all AM radio has been far right far too long.
- 3 years ago
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nodonjuan
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dlogan
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Paddlenround:
"can you name one exclusively liberal commentator?" Are you serious? Try anybody other than those on Fox News. Can you seriously watch MSNBC and say they are not as far left as one could get? I watch it sometimes just to get a good laugh.
- 3 years ago
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dlogan
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Nephwrack
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kenyan = arab? i just cant get my head around that. the mental gymnastics makes the head spin. but then again getting inside a wingnut's head usually hurts the brain anyway. the hate in there stinks too. McCain should move to south florida after the election, maybe he'll like shuffleboard. he's already showing pretty advanced signs of alzheimers, and pallin? maybe she'll get a spot as a fox news anchor. ooh she could cover hockey for em! or maybe curling. i think it's a good sign that the obama rallies are standing room only, and that the same busload of angry racists are at all the mccain events.
- 3 years ago
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Nephwrack
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keithponder
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Nephwrack:
Ouch !
- 3 years ago
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keithponder
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nodonjuan
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Nephwrack:
Well sais Neph!
- 3 years ago
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nodonjuan
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krenee
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oh, and the pollsters have tried to sway to the liberal left the entire election, as they usually do. One can make a poll say anything they would like to by polling however they choose to make it come out that way.
Wake up, they always do this, and yes, it has some effect.
People are all acting like they are zoned out on drugs right now---wake up and smell the coffee and what is truly at stake--- - 3 years ago
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krenee
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krenee
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whatever Obama is as much caucasian as he is anything else, and less "African American", if any. His father was Kenyan and more Arab than anything. So basically Obama is Caucasian and Arab and questionable is about every area. Certainly, his moral base (partial birth abortion--get real--there is a 4 week old baby in this family and I can't imagine her suffering like that basically 8 weeks ago) and gay marriage? (the seed of God wasn't meant for sewage system of man)
I love all, hate ridiculous perverse ideologies. - 3 years ago
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krenee
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nodonjuan
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krenee:
You are as dangerous as Sarah Palin. Arab? Really?
- 3 years ago
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nodonjuan
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Marc_in_Waikiki
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krenee:
"The seed of God wasn't meant for sewage system [sic] of man"?? Oh, honey, please take an anatomy class and realize that, by your "logic," only lesbian sex is divine and holy since sperm and urine share the same passageway in all males--it's called the urethra! Now, get off your holier-than-thou, moral high ground, come out of that closet and just proudly admit that you're a bigot.
- 3 years ago
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Marc_in_Waikiki
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Paddlenround
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A PayDay loan is legalized loan sharking. The Mafia provides better terms. If the government DOESN'T crack down on predatory lending policies, more people will be put into dangerous financial situations.
I am all for Free Market economics but you have to balance that with responsible financial institutions who have the consumer and their own best interest properly balanced.
On the Bandwagon effect, this is one for Captain Obvious. Hello...It is a proven fact that the human mind follows other examples. It's how we learn and how we make decisions every day.
There is nothing wrong with making some decisions based on others. We do it in the store, driving and in our every day lives. Whether its dropping into Starbucks or chatting about the game on the weekend, humans like to be included.
In addition, it is way too much work for us to analyze every decision we make. If you like Tacos, you will ask someone where a good Taco stand is. It is an efficient and often accurate method for achieving the best results. Yet, we also use our own experience and intelligence to understand our sources ensure that these decisions work.
People make important decisions every day by gathering consensus on what is the best route of action. However, we all temper this with our own decisions and our own beliefs. We balance the available information with what we know and choose the best route.
This is why it still astounds me that ANYONE can logically come to the McCain conclusion. Its not that he is a bad man or that he would not be a good president. Its the continuous bad judgement. From Palin to the ever shifting message his campaign has waged. It shows that he is NOT thinking for himself.
I am Paddlenround and I approved this message.....doh!
- 3 years ago
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Paddlenround
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Mitscherman
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Paddlenround:
Lead, follow, or get out of the way. Children learn by following the examples set before them. Adults make decisions based on personality traits. The bandwagon affect is simply mob mentality.
- 3 years ago
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Mitscherman
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Vierotchka
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The "payday loan" scam is an absolute shame, it has put a vast number of military personnel into deep debt and a world of hurt. It is criminal.
- 3 years ago
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Vierotchka
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Liberal_Extinction
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Vierotchka:
OK, hell just froze over, I agree with V on something...
- 3 years ago
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Liberal_Extinction
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stewiegriffin
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If this idiot gets in it proves america is a raciest nation.
- 3 years ago
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stewiegriffin
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Liberal_Extinction
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stewiegriffin:
Good job toting the race pimp banner, "if you don't like obama, you're a bigot". You simpleton progressive pukes just refuse to realize that the successful in society don't mind making a "contribution" but that contribution should NEVER reach a point that a lazy leech can survive on welfare and social programs alone.
- 3 years ago
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Liberal_Extinction
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asherp
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stewiegriffin:
If either McCain or Obama get in, it will prove that Americans enjoy being spied on, being denied their right to sue telecoms for invaded privacy, and that they LOVE paying for wall street bank CEO's vacations.
- 3 years ago
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asherp
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GatorMonkey
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stewiegriffin:
Hey Liberal Extinction - Why don't you take your foot out of your mouth. I am a hard working citizen. I was unfortunatly laid off because my company couldn't afford my position. See the thing about it is it can be considered a "luxury" position in companies and is often the first area cuts are made if its necessary. So that means I will be on unemployment for a month while I get my affairs in order to move across the country and start a NEW job.
I am not a lazy leech, asshole.... I work. I have savings and I don't want to blow it all that month because I will need it for a big move.
Honestly, I hope you lose your job and know what its like to feel completely frazzled at the idea that your savings account is about to get very skinny and you have to rely on a little bit of help to get you through a tough month.
- 3 years ago
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GatorMonkey
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Liberal_Extinction
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stewiegriffin:
Hey Gator, sorry to hear about your situation. YOU are the PERFECT EXAMPLE of why there do need to be SOME social programs, but do you notice the difference? You're packing up and moving to start a NEW job in a new location and you're saying you'll need 1 month of assistance, HELL TAKE 2, my hats off to you for doing the right thing, getting up dusting yourself off, and jumping right back into the productive part of society. You aren't the problem I have with social programs, you're the guy that could end up getting burned though because of the thousands that have no drive to contribute or provide for themselves and choose to gravitate from social program to social program sucking off the tit of society and taxpayers.
Thank you for rolling up your sleeves and getting down over the situation and congrats on the new job. I WAS laid off 1 month after 9-11 from the construction industry, I completely 180'd and changed careers and now 8 years later I'm very successful where I'm at and I'm debt free aside from 2 cars and a house.
- 3 years ago
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Liberal_Extinction
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NEwsNuT888
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Yeah i've been supporting someone for 12 months and i'm gonna change my mind when i step into the booth.
- 3 years ago
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NEwsNuT888
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adveritas
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Hopefully we see this effect and the "reverse-Bradley effect", where republicans and racists say they won't vote for Obama but actually want to and will!
I don't think it's a lemming effect at all, I think it's realizing somethings good based upon the domino effect caused by the persuasive speeches of respectful politicians like Colin Powell and Obama himself. Reality is also hitting us square in the face... even Steven Colbert has endorsed Obama.
- 3 years ago
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adveritas
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jjmaster
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adveritas:
Yes, this sounds like a last-jump to psyche voters... I think most people have made up their minds on the issues that affect them... Unless they steal the votes and have chad wars and the like again, I do not expect to see McCain on the swearing in day!
- 3 years ago
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jjmaster
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des10
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adveritas:
I know that recently my Mother-in-law who had been diehard McCain changed her mind then actually went out and voted today for Obama after hearing what he had to say this week. I'm hoping that we'll see more individuals realize that race should not be an issue and vote for the candidate they feel will lead the best.
As for anyone having second thoughts, if you don't know who to vote for then don't vote. Don't just pick one for the hell of it.
- 3 years ago
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des10
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laserdog
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adveritas:
I had been thinking that the Reverse-Bradley effect would be if a voter who suspected they disliked Obama purely for racist reasons wouldn't bother to vote.
They might say on the phone "I'm leaning McCain".
But the nagging doubt that voting for McCain might be admitting that they were racist may just keep them home...
- 3 years ago
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laserdog