News and Politics | December 23, 2008 | 35 comments

50% chance of depression in US, prediction

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bansheewail
San Francisco: The US economy has a 50 per cent chance of falling into a depression during the next three years, said Roger Farmer, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's economic fluctuations and growth programme.

"There's a significant probability things will get worse," Farmer, 53, said during a phone interview Friday. "We're certainly not at the end of the recession and things are getting worse."
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35 comments // 50% chance of depression in US, prediction

  • RaceBannon
    • 0
      RaceBannon  
    • Damn we need some prohibition. I wanna run a bootlegging ring or build a speakeasy. Either way I'll be rich enough to make one of my future (emphasis on future) kids president and put the rest of my family into politics. Then I will have created a political dynasty or "camelot".... Its a completely original plan in a america, no ones ever done it before. lol

    • 3 years ago
  • clayjj05
  • realitybytes
    • 0
      realitybytes  
    • its not about being fearful or positive, its being realistic and understanding whats going on. Look at all these bailouts and stimulus packages. Come on now, do you really think that there isnt something behind all this? The govt. dished out billions of dollars to every tax payer. do you really think they did that to boost the economy?NOT!!! its all a grand sceme that will unfold in years to come.

    • 3 years ago
  • 1percent
  • honusurf
  • SHAWN_RITTIMAN
    • 0
      SHAWN_RITTIMAN  
    • It is unfortunate that we may get to experience the hard times that only seemed like a story when told by those who had lived through the last depressions. We won't know for sure how things may change until Bush is finally out of office. For now we must look to the good things like the gas prices, and the fact that it is a market that has the consumer in mind.

    • 3 years ago
  • honusurf
    • 0
      honusurf  
    • Image
    • A good meter of the depression can be found on www.intrade.com -search for depression. Right now it is at 28% chance for 09- up about $10 since last time I posted a link about it. Seems like with every bail out the chances of a depression heighten!

    • 3 years ago
  • JohnA
    • 0
      JohnA  
    • I'd say only a 50% chance sounds optimistic to me. Although you'll never hear any politician or bureaucrat use the "D" word. We were in a recession for a year before they would acknowledge it.

    • 3 years ago
  • bansheewail
  • clayjj05
  • pressrecord
    • 0
      pressrecord  
    • good sayings from mama:

      1) half glass of water: half full or half empty? either way, be half thirsty and you will be full.

      2) where there is a void, there is an opportunity.

      3) we may be broke, but we are not broken.

    • 3 years ago
  • bigred5
    • 0
      bigred5  
    • some fat will be trimmed
      people will find out what there house is really worth
      We will learn like our grandparents how luxurious a job really is.

      hopefully we all find out the most important things in life aren't things at all.

    • 3 years ago
  • ahowes
  • damnneargenius
  • islek
    • 0
      islek  
    • It's important to not let the fear of a potential depression consume us, but the likelihood of it happening again should all make us extra wary. In other words, maybe you DON'T need to buy that Wii Fit instead of paying your electric bill this month...

    • 3 years ago
  • mik661
  • damnneargenius
    • 0
      damnneargenius  
    • Throw the blanket stereotypes and labels out the window along with the percentages already.

      If you are someone who has lost your job, can't find work, and is on the street...you are in a full-blown Depression.

      The only percentage that matters is how many are experiencing this condition of suffering, hopelessness, and despair during their one and only known chance at life.

      Just keep in mind, there are ALWAYS ways around EVERYTHING, there are just wildly varying levels of complexity and difficulty.

    • 3 years ago
  • damnneargenius
  • DreSandoval
  • unimatrix0
    • 0
      unimatrix0  
    • If there is a 50% chance gloom and doom than there is a 50% chance of blue sky and happy days. I will put my energy into the latter rather than the former.

      Why don't we make it good instead of bad? Be positive. Think global, act local. Yes we can.

    • 3 years ago
  • PatrioticAstronaut
    • 0
      PatrioticAstronaut  
    • But then how will the government be able to wire-tap, or enforce environmental regulations? Oh yeah, They won't! Thats right the Democrats will get what thy want, and so will the Republicans. There won't be a "newer" deal, though. Were still paying off the old "deal". And when the riots start. Obama will cease to to maintain a "savior-like" status.

    • 3 years ago
  • pshot
    • 0
      pshot  
    • If these people have nothing but bad news to report then why put it out there. California may be going bankrupt because of the lack of qualified leaders in there government but it is not the same everywhere.

      We are Americans, the strongest, most hard working, most giving people in the world. We have survived a civil war, a Depression, two world wars and we can over come anything. This is the type of things we should be talking about instead of trying to bring the hopes of people down. Find solutions don't ponder on what you think will happen

    • 3 years ago
  • bansheewail
    • 0
      bansheewail  
    • pshot:

      "This is the type of things we should be talking about instead of trying to bring the hopes of people down. "

      I can't tell if you agree with the post and the discuusion or you think I am a pessimist.

    • 3 years ago
  • TheMadPoet
    • 0
      TheMadPoet  
    • Courage people! Is your glass of water half-full or half-empty? This economist is acting like 'chicken little' - running around saying the sky is falling and freaking out all the other farm animals. Of course, if the sky does fall he can say 'told you!' and be smug; otherwise he'll be forgotten.

    • 3 years ago
  • gene248
  • federicoharo
  • Dmitri_Molotov
  • damnneargenius
    • 0
      damnneargenius  
    • federicoharo:

      There is nothing to fear but the reasons for fear.

      There is always a chance the charging tiger could be headed for something/someone right behind you.

      I'm not sure what the moral to that story is, except perhaps there is greater safety or at least comfort in numbers?

      On the brighter side, if you do suffer from a bad case of downsizing, at least you will have lots of company to not feel so alone.

    • 3 years ago
  • BLAMM_O
  • ScratchyPants
  • bansheewail
    • 0
      bansheewail  
    • Dear Santa (2009),

      This year, I wish for,
      some vegetable seeds.
      2 chickens
      1 milk cow
      2 pigs
      a mule
      a plow
      and some work gloves.

      Thanks you very much,

      Love,

      America

    • 3 years ago
  • naty_forty
  • RaceBannon
  • isnamthere
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