Iowa Caucus Counter miscounts 20 votes for Romney, giving Santorum the win

An accident ? Really ?

The Iowa caucuses have come and gone with no clear frontrunner. Many pundits will point to Mitt Romney’s squeak past Rick Santorum as evidence of his staying power and overall support in the Republican heartland but I see a loss for Romney. Rick Santorum came from out of nowhere and if he had had another day would have gone sailing past Romney. Romney has been in this campaign since he lost in 2008. He campaigned heavily in Iowa in 2008, he’s well known and yet the best he can do is 25%. That is not a vote of confidence, that is a disaster. Santorum on the other hand has performed well enough in the debates, represents a harsh conservative position, and can continue to attract conservative votes. Romney needs to put together a better strategy than going negative to try and slow the Santorum rocket. Santorum is almost as clean-cut as Ron Paul without the Libertarian baggage and Mitt could find people making excuses why they are deserting for Santorum.

Ron Paul on the other hand did as well as many expected but not enough to set the world on fire. Had he fallen third to Newt Gingrich, then the establishment could have accepted it as meeting expectations but instead he came in third to Santorum. That puts Paul’s ceiling at about 20 to 22% of the Republican electorate with less nationally, possibly not enough for him to make it into the national debates. Michelle Bachmann gracefully bowed out of the contest and we’ll see if she has any ire for the candidates. I expect her to endorse Romney at some point because he has more to offer her. Rick Perry chose to stay in to keep things interesting but he is just acting as a spoiler to siphon votes from Santorum. I wonder if somebody put him up to it.

New Hampshire is a bit of a wildcard. With latent racism and homophobia ever present at the margins, I anticipate a strong showing for Santorum. Romney has been holding steady above 40% but I predict that his margin will shrink to 35%, Santorum will eke out a second place finish with about 18%, Paul at 14%, Gingrich at 10% and Huntsman playing clean-up at about 6%. The real loser of the Iowa race was Jon Huntsman as voters who were disappointed by Romney moved to him. They will now feel comfortable moving over to Santorum. Huntsman’s credentials aside, there is a latent concern about religion and his oblique support for President Obama. The independents will be turned off by the negativity and will rally for Paul but not for Huntsman.

I think Romney will still be the candidate and if Santorum can avoid going nuclear on Romney, then he would be a strong possible for the VP slot. Often the Republicans go outside for another candidate but should Santorum maintain some strength, he will have enough delegates to get on the ticket. Paul will be shut-out and forced to run a Libertarian campaign. I predict it will be a Johnson/Paul ticket attempting to spoil the election for the Republicans. To avoid another spurned lover going independent, I expect Buddy Roemer to get an invite to the debates to fill the Bachmann hole, we can hope because Buddy will be far more entertaining than the current reality show contestants.

As for Americans Elect, there are 10 days and counting until we can start the campaign. Once we get started, there will be no going back and we will be the game changer. Wish us luck.

Mike Ballantine is a Green Party candidate for US President on Americans Elect.

Wasn't there some concerns about voter fraud in The Iowa caucuses? Isn't Romney the Republican establishment favorite? Just asking.

Yikes! Seriously? I mean, they are all terrible candidates but Santorum? A misogynist bigot that cloaks his greed in his religion. He has the morals of a snake, the compassion of the Marquis de Sade and his ideas about sex should be thoroughly discussed on the couch of a shrink, not paraded out in public as if they are valid.

This is Breaking: So here's some supplemental links:

Local: http://www.kcci.com/news/30144582/detail.html#ixzz1idUftgoh

National: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/05/iowa-caucus-2012-results_n_1188074.html...