Republican // Current

Fun With War Crimes #3 - A Throbbing Surge

The press rolls over like a good dog and everything is "America's" fault -- huh??... more

FunWithWarCrimes
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Why Martin Luther King Was Republican

From its founding in1854 as the anti-slavery party, the Repubican party has championed... more

soleil10
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Female suicide bomber killed 16 in Iraq: wounded 40

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A female suicide bomber killed 16 people and wounded 40 Sunday... more

pigmonkey
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Poll shows Obama with 15-point lead over McCain

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided.

Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.
Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have... more

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Mccain may have already picked a VP: Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan drew praise on this morning's Chris Matthews Show for having called the nomination races for John McCain and Barack Obama early, and for prescient reasons. Matthews gave Sullivan a chance to issue another pronouncement on the 2008 Veepstakes, and the Daily Dish scribe didn't disappoint, not just predicting that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty would be McCain's pick for vice president, but insisting that the decision to do so had been "already made."

Oh, and then Chris Matthews tells one of the worst puns you've ever heard. And yes, a small piece of you will die when you hear it

MATTHEWS: Welcome back. Andrew, let me tell you something you already know. Some of your predictions are right on the money. More than a year ago, you sat in that chair and predicted Obama. Let's watch.

SULLIVAN (taped): I think most people want to move on. I think that's Obama's fundamental strength. If you look at the polling this week, 72%, wrong track. The highest ever reported. Who is the candidate that most represents change? Obama.

MATTHEWS: Score, Andrew. And then, well before Iowa, when McCain was running fourth, you predicted McCain would be the winner.

SULLIVAN (taped): There will be a moment probably in New Hampshire when John McCain emerges as the John Kerry of this cycle when the Republican party panics with all the people they have and swoop back to the old war horse.

MATTHEWS: There are going to be some horseraces in Washington next week. So Andrew, tell me something again I don't know.

SULLIVAN: I think the vice-presidential picks are both going to be boring and underwhelming. We hope for a big moment, but actually...neither candidate wants to mix their brand up with another strong brand. I think that Pawlenty will probably be McCain's number two - I think he's already made that decision, actually - and I think Obama has yet to pick, but he doesn't want someone that will outshine him.

MATTHEWS: So that ticket is going to be known as good and Pawlenty.

Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan drew praise on this morning's Chris Matthews Show for... more

pigmonkey
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GOP frets Barr could play spoiler in prez race

A fiery former GOP congressman who gained national prominence for doggedly pursuing... more

Argon18
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Ron Paul's supporters refuse to give up

Sen. John McCain may be the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, but... more

pigmonkey
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1 year ago
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5 comments

Hopefully it'll be better than the YouTube Debates

Obama, McCain Debate Via Twitter: How To Follow Along Want to know what Barack... more

Argon18
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Peaceful protester in Eugene, Oregon tasered, punished and tortured

Quote from Eugene Weekly letter to editor by Rick Gorman, June 19, 2008 Issue. What... more

jubal
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1 year ago
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Frank Rich debunks Clinton-women-for-McCain myth

Media's talking heads, especially those on cable news shows, will repeat just about... more

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1 year ago
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Baracknophobia

Behind the mild-mannered facade, Barack Obama is intent on enslaving the white race.

TheRealEdwin
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1 year ago
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Ron Paul in the Situation Room

Keeping the heat on McCain.

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Iraqi MPs speak out about occupation

Transcript:
MATTHEW PALEVSKY, JOURNALIST, TRNN: Presidential candidate John McCain has repeatedly warned Americans that withdrawing from Iraq would invite chaos in the Middle East and empower Iran.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, US PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (R): If our troops are ordered to make a forced retreat, we risk all-out civil war, genocide, and a failed state in the heart of the Middle East. Al-Qaeda terrorists would rejoice in the defeat of the United States. Allowing a potential terrorist sanctuary would profoundly affect the security of the United States, Israel, and our other friends, and would invite further intervention from Iraq's neighbors, including a very much-emboldened Iran.

I recently sat down with two Iraqi parliamentarians who testified to the contrary in front of the US Congress. I asked Nadim al-Jaberi, former general and current member of Shiite Fadhila Party, what he thought of McCain's statements.

NADIM AL-JABERI, IRAQI MP, FADHILA PARTY (SUBTITLED TRANSLATION): No, I do not agree with McCain's conclusion. I believe that Iran became influential in Iraq due to the American occupation and not the other way around. I would say that if the US is controlling the Iraqi streets, then Iran is controlling the state [government]. Iran had no power in Iraq before its occupation on the 9th of April 2003. But it established its power after that date. Iran will stay as an essential and influential factor in Iraq as long as there are foreign forces present, as it feels that these forces threaten its national security.

PALEVSKY: There is a gap in power that Iran could manipulate to gain control and influence in Iraq. Why wouldn't they take advantage of this?

AL-JABERI: No, I believe that Iran's influence grew due to the presence of the American forces on the Iraqi land. There is no connection with the dismissal of Saddam. The issue is connected to the capabilities of the Iraqi state. I believe that the Iraqi state is capable of protecting its borders from Iran or others. There is a historic competition between the two states. On that basis, there has always been a balance between the two states, and neither can swallow the other. If the American forces withdrew from Iraq, I believe that the majority of the Iraqi nation would stand against any Iranian interference. Maybe some people think that the Shias [population] would be loyal to Iran, but I believe that impression is wrong because most of the Iraqi army that fought against Iran from 1980 to 1988 were Shia. There is no connection between Iraqi and Iranian Shia. There may be a connection among some of the [Iraqi] politicians and Iran, but there is no connection between the Shia sect [in Iraq] and Iran. Only some basic ideology, but no political connection. Interestingly, the political elite that is loyal to Iran are the same people who are supported by the United States.
Transcript: MATTHEW PALEVSKY, JOURNALIST, TRNN: Presidential candidate John McCain... more