Insurgency // Current

Baghdad car bombs near government offices kill 136

I don't think I have read this many casualties in a single bomb blast in Iraq. I am... more

Apocalipstick
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1 month ago
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17 comments

What's Really Happening in Afghanistan

This is probably the most realistic and smartest take of what's going on in... more

uspublius
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1 month ago
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0 comments

Good Morning! Nigeria - how many insurgencies can you have?

Hey guys - Interesting story this morning - a bloody conclusion to Nigeria's newest... more

afitzgerald
added this
4 months ago
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3 comments

Iran's Election Uprising: Supreme Leader warns reform politicians

The politics of Iran are confusing and Byzantine at best, though outright chaos is possible. Iran is often called a "constitutional theocracy" - that is, there is a written constitution and body of laws that define an Islamic Republic, and are of course often violated (*cough cough Article 24*). The "Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Ali Hoseyni Khamene’i is really the guy in charge of the country - he has authority over everything, from approving laws, to approving elections.

A Supreme Leader is chosen by the "Assembly of Experts," all of whom are religious experts, and is currently headed by Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The "Guardian Council" are more Islamic jurists, some appointed directly by the Supreme Leader, some appointed by the "Majlis" after being recommended by the Supreme Leader's judicial system. The Majlis is the legislative body, a sort of bourgoise elected body, whose power to enact laws is controlled by the Supreme Leader. The President of Iran is an elected official (elected from candidates the Supreme Leader permits to run, and elections approved by the Supreme Leader) who executes the Supreme Leader's plans for foreign policy and budgeting.

So when reform politicians, like Ayatollah Rafsanjani, spent this week calling for more freedoms, they were in direct opposition to the Supreme Leader. These statements include Rafsanjani's sermon on Friday, Mir Hossein Mousavi's and wife Zahra Rahnavard's public appearances, including meeting with families of those arrested during the protests and calling for a new party to advocate for more freedoms, and former President Khatami calling for a referendum on the election's legitimacy. Supreme Leader is not pleased.

Let's be clear here - these politicians are not liberal democrats, they do not want a democracy with full Western freedoms. They do have power, though, and can push the Majlis and Presidency through popular votes. With enough coattails, they can start pushing members of the Revolutionary Guard, the Guardian Council, the Assembly of Experts, and even the Basij. If these guys were liberal democrats, they would have no chance at change. If they can put enough pressure on the Conservatives, they might be able to change the Constitution to remove the central authority of the Supreme Leader, and relegate him to just another Ayatollah.

Full revolution seems nigh impossible, even though the Iranian population is typically far to the left of the government. Major General Ataollah Salehi (Commander in Chief of the Iranian Army) sees no problem speaking truth to power, and has openly criticized the other branch of the Iranian ground forces, the Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (often called the "Revolutionary Guard," which also controls the Basij). Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari (commander of the Revolutionary Guard) is a conservative, but not a radical like President Ahmadinejad. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar is the Defense Minister, but more of a technical administrator, who was in command of some terrorist actions in Lebanon, and is on the record as fiercely advocating against nuclear weapons for Iran. Tehran Police Chief Azizullah Rajabzadeh seems to have been letting Basij do most of the beat downs in the latest rounds of violence, but the Basij seem more in control than he does. Its hard to believe any of these individuals would be willing to order their forces to support any new revolution.The politics of Iran are confusing and Byzantine at best, though outright chaos is... more