tagged w/ Peak Oil
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14 days ago
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International Energy Agency: “On planned policies, rising fossil energy use will lead to irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change.”
“… we are on an even more dangerous track to an increase of 6°C [11°F]…. Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.”
The International Energy Agency has issued yet another clarion call for urgent action on climate. Their 2011 World Energy Outlook [WEO] release should end once and for all any notion that delay is the rational course for the nation and the world.
The UK Guardian‘s headline captures the urgency:
World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns
If fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will ‘lose for ever’ the chance to avoid dangerous climate change
We must start aggressively deploying clean energy now through myriad policies, including a price on carbon. That has been the conclusion of most authoritative studies, of course, including the recent one by California’s independent state science and technology advisory panel (see “Study Confirms Optimal Climate Strategy: Deploy, Deploy, Deploy, Research and Develop, Deploy, Deploy, Deploy“).
The IEA report deserves the label “bombshell,” though, because for most of the past two decades, the IEA was the source of bland, conservative, business-as-usual analysis. When I was Acting Assistant Secretary of Energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, no one at DOE paid much attention to IEA reports. And that perspective continued through most of the 2000s.
But in just the last few years they have woken up to the risks posed to peak oil — see IEA top economist warns (8/09): “We have to leave oil before oil leaves us” — and especially climate change. In releasing its 2009 WEO, the IEA warned, “The world will have to spend an extra $500 billion to cut carbon emissions for each year it delays implementing a major assault on global warming.”
Now the IEA has done the calculation a different way, concluding, “Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.” Those who counsel waiting for breakthrough technologies are urging us on a path that is unsustainable, irreversible, potentially catastrophic, and economically indefensible, according to the IEA.
The IEA is one of the few organizations in the world with a sophisticated enough global energy model to do credible (i.e non-hand-waving) projections of the cost of different emissions pathways and the costs of delaying efforts to achieve them. Their 2008 analysis of the 2°C warming pathway demonstrated that the total shift in investment needed to stabilize at 450 ppm is only about 1.1% of GDP per year — and that is not a “cost” or hit to GDP, because much of that investment goes towards saving expensive fuel (see “IEA report: Climate Progress has the 450-ppm solution about right“).
The new analysis shows that because of soaring emissions, we are running out of time for the “450 Scenario.” We are at risk of irreversibly “locking in” dangerous warming — a point I agree with mostly, but not entirely:
More at the linkInternational Energy Agency: “On planned policies, rising fossil energy use... more
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America and Oil. It's like bacon and eggs, Batman and Robin. As the old song lyric went, you can't have one without the other. Once upon a time, it was also a surefire formula for national greatness and global preeminence. Now, it's a guarantee of a trip to hell in a hand basket. The Chinese know it. Does Washington?
America's rise to economic and military supremacy was fueled in no small measure by its control over the world's supply of oil. Oil powered the country's first giant corporations, ensured success in World War II, and underlay the great economic boom of the postwar period. Even in an era of nuclear weapons, it was the global deployment of oil-powered ships, helicopters, planes, tanks, and missiles that sustained America's superpower status during and after the Cold War. It should come as no surprise, then, that the country's current economic and military decline coincides with the relative decline of oil as a major source of energy.
If you want proof of that economic decline, just check out the way America's share of the world's gross domestic product has been steadily dropping, while its once-powerhouse economy now appears incapable of generating forward momentum. In its place, robust upstarts like China and India are posting annual growth rates of 8% to 10%. When combined with the growing technological prowess of those countries, the present figures are surely just precursors to a continuing erosion of America's global economic clout.
Militarily, the picture appears remarkably similar. Yes, a crack team of SEAL commandos did kill Osama bin Laden, but that single operation - greeted in the United States with a jubilation more appropriate to the ending of a major war - hardly made up for the military's lackluster performance in two recent wars against ragtag insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If anything, almost a decade after the Taliban was overthrown, it has experienced a remarkable resurgence even facing the full might of the US , while the assorted insurgent forces in Iraq appear to be holding their own. Meanwhile, Iran - that bete noire of American power in the Middle East - seem as powerful as ever. Al Qaeda may be on the run, but as recent developments in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and unstable Pakistan suggest, the United States wields far less clout and influence in the region now than it did before it invaded Iraq in 2003.
If American power is in decline, so is the relative status of oil in the global energy equation. In the 2000 edition of its International Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy confidently foresaw ever-expanding oil production in Africa, Alaska, the Persian Gulf area, and the Gulf of Mexico, among other areas. It predicted, in fact, that world oil output would reach 97 million barrels per day in 2010 and a staggering 115 million barrels in 2020. EIA number-crunchers concluded as well that oil would long retain its position as the world's leading source of energy. Its 38% share of the global energy supply, they said, would remain unchanged.
What a difference a decade makes. By 2010, a new understanding about the natural limits of oil production had sunk in at the EIA and its experts were predicting a disappointingly modest petroleum future.
In that year, world oil output had reached just 82 million barrels per day, a stunning 15 million less than expected. Moreover, in the 2010 edition of its International Energy Outlook, the EIA was now projecting 2020 output at 85 million barrels per day, hardly more than the 2010 level and 30 million barrels below its projections of just a decade earlier, which were relegated to the dustbin of history. (Such projections, by the way, are for conventional, liquid petroleum and exclude "tough" and "dirty" sources that imply energy desperation - like Canadian tar sands, shale oil, and other "unconventional" fuels.)
The most recent EIA projections also show oil's share of the world total energy supply - far from remaining constant at 38% - had already dropped to 35% in 2010 and was projected to continue declining to 32% in 2020 and 30% in 2035. In its place, natural gas and renewable sources of energy are expected to assume ever more prominent roles.
So here's the question all of us should consider, in part because until now no one has: are the decline of the United States and the decline of oil connected? Careful analysis suggests that there are good reasons to believe they are.
From standard oil to the Carter Doctrine.........
Continue at:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MI21Dj02.htmlAmerica and Oil. It's like bacon and eggs, Batman and Robin. As the old song... more
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Time to get louder at government about this. Time to win this conversation with truth. CO2 traps heat. One of the main points of this, plus some others I divulge. ;l). Thanks Current for this venue for us to tell it like it is.
This video is dedicated to the indigenous peoples of our world and those experiencing the brunt of the effects of climate change/biodistress. May we find it within us to do what is right for all.Time to get louder at government about this. Time to win this conversation with truth.... more
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Film intervista diretto da Chris Smith, Collapse propone una serie di previsioni sulle conseguenze del collasso della civiltà del petrolio. Nel corso di un lungo monologo, punteggiato dalle domande del regista, il protagonista Michael Ruppert dà qui drammaticamente forma alle scomode verità a cui accennava appena, è il caso di dirlo, il documentario di Al Gore.Film intervista diretto da Chris Smith, Collapse propone una serie di previsioni sulle... more
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It's day 3 of the two week sit-in which will be the beginning of the movement of the people to stop this senseless destructive path we are on as a species. This is about more than a long piece of metal winding its way through our country. This is about the global repercussions of continuing to be addicted to that which is killing us and the ecosystems that sustain life on this planet.
And while I too know that to go "cold turkey" would be just as much a catastrophe, we must now work together to make those in government understand that to continue on this path without adequate transition is even more catastrophic. But yes, I know the score and the odds just as those sitting in Washington DC do. However, this is about the survival of civilization as we know it and that is simply the reality of it all. This is a moral imperative.
The link to the thread above was the first post in what I hope will be a series over the next two weeks to virtually protest this unnecessary pipeline and to stand in solidarity with those who risk arrest in trying to make President Obama understand that a YES to this will also affect the world his children will live in.
So once again, please use this thread to comment NO, or any other encouragement you wish to convey to those sitting in to stand up for us that we are with them in spirit.
If you truly love your planet and wish to preserve it, this is the time to make it known.
They want it all but they won't get it without a fight!It's day 3 of the two week sit-in which will be the beginning of the movement of... more
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This thread is just one of many that I will be starting in the next two weeks to virtually protest in solidarity with those risking arrest in Washington DC who are sitting in to stand up for our climate, our water, our land and our energy future. Please help us support these good people. If you are in agreement type NO in the comments section, or add any type of encouragement to share the spirit of the people being heard for climate justice.
The Keystone XL pipeline must go!
Tarsands is the sign that desperation has hit the fossil fuel industry as our addiction has become dangerous for the continued sustainability of our planet. Tarsands is the wake up call regarding a moral imperative we are losing.
Consider the actions involved in extracting the bitumen tar from the sand and the process of separation that involves usage of huge amounts of water and toxic agents in making the finished product suitable for gas tanks. Consider the environmental degradation of pristine ecosystems, rivers, species and cultures. Consider the health effects and cancers related to the toxification of land, water and air that have taken lives. Consider the climate timebomb being released by the burning of this dirty toxic crude all to satisfy the greed of those who care nothing for the damage this is doing to the world you and yours will live in. This is not progress, this is insanity.
However, the fault is not just with those who process this destruction. The fault also lies with us. Those who continue to consume it in order to satiate a need that has led our environment to the breaking point. And now, Transcanada and those who seek to benefit from this destruction here wish to do so by constructing another pipeline through the heartland of this country directly threatening our water supply, our agriculture and our environment.
Starting tomorrow and going to Sept 3, people will be risking arrest in acts of peaceful civil disobedience outside the White House to tell President Obama NO regarding approving the Keystone XL pipeline.
(Caps for emphasis because this is important)
THIS IS NOW THE TIME THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA MUST HEAR YOU. THE WORLD WE ARE MAKING FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS DEPENDS ON OUR ACTIONS TODAY.
So even if all you can do is send an e-mail to the White House, you need to do it. Call, write, tweet, blog. But please, don't allow another ecocide to take place. We do have power in great numbers. We do have other energy choices. We CAN change things for the better (as the end of this video illustrates.)
But that won't happen unless we make noise by whatever means we have.
Kudos to those willing to be arrested for this important cause. I thank you, my child thanks you, I stand with you and I will do all in my power to be heard with you.
NO TO KEYSTONE XL.!This thread is just one of many that I will be starting in the next two weeks to... more
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What can a humble loaf of bread tell us about the world?
The answer is: far more than you might imagine. For one thing, that loaf can be "read" as if it were a core sample extracted from the heart of a grim global economy. Looked at another way, it reveals some of the crucial fault lines of world politics, including the origins of the Arab spring that has now become a summer of discontent.
Consider this: between June 2010 and June 2011, world grain prices almost doubled. In many places on this planet, that proved an unmitigated catastrophe. In those same months, several governments fell, rioting broke out in cities from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, to Nairobi, Kenya, and most disturbingly three new wars began in Libya, Yemen, and Syria. Even on Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Bedouin tribes are now in revolt against the country's interim government and manning their own armed roadblocks.
And in each of these situations, the initial trouble was traceable, at least in part, to the price of that loaf of bread. If these upheavals were not "resource conflicts" in the formal sense of the term, think of them at least as bread-triggered upheavals.
Growing Climate Change in a Wheat Field
Bread has classically been known as the staff of life. In much of the world, you can't get more basic, since that daily loaf often stands between the mass of humanity and starvation. Still, to read present world politics from a loaf of bread, you first have to ask: of what exactly is that loaf made? Water, salt, and yeast, of course, but mainly wheat, which means when wheat prices increase globally, so does the price of that loaf—and so does trouble.......
Continue Reading at:
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/climate-change-food-crisis-price-bread-political-instabilityWhat can a humble loaf of bread tell us about the world?
The answer is: far more... more
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http://progressivesforgore.blogspot.com/2011/07/24-hours-of-reality.html
It's way past time to cut through all of the propaganda spewed forth incessantly by the same interests that care nothing for this planet or your future. It's the only way to have one now. We are running out of time.
We will not solve this crisis until we all resolve to be a part of the solution.
Will you participate in Reality?
I am going to try to put together a movie of my own that connects these dots and post it in as many places as I can.
I am going to be relentless in letting the US government know that as citizens we will not allow them to continue to betray our trust and the environmental stability that affects all of the other facets of our lives.
I am going to continue filming my own user created content program "Biorhythms" for the Current site under Earth Care, and on it I will continue to present news of the environment we do not see reported on MSM with a focus on humanity, environment and the meaning of the events taking place now.
I will also continue to pledge to live my own life by walking lightly upon this Earth and fighting to hold those who deliberately destroy it and the indigenous peoples of this world who inhabit those places accountable and to bring them to justice.
It's time to raise our voices in truth and Reality.
Satyagraha.http://progressivesforgore.blogspot.com/2011/07/24-hours-of-reality.html
It's... more
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The peak of world oil production, followed by an irreversible decline, will be a watershed in human history. The goal of this paper is to predict the world peak. Production data from 42 countries representing 98 percent of world oil production are used rather than reserve estimates.The peak of world oil production, followed by an irreversible decline, will be a... more
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On April 22, the U.S. State Department released a supplemental environmental review for a proposed pipeline that would funnel 700,000 barrels of oil per day 2,750 kilometers (1,710 miles) from Canada’s tar sands to refineries on the Gulf Coast of Texas. The department completed the supplemental review after its initial draft, released in April 2010, was given the lowest possible rating of “inadequate” by the Environmental Protection Agency.
In the year since, U.S. senators, state representatives, and various national, state, and local interest groups also have requested a more detailed review of the safety of the Keystone XL pipeline and its effects on land use and water resources. The route proposed by TransCanada, the project developer, cuts across the High Plains Aquifer System, one of the world’s largest aquifers and the water source for 2.8 million people and nearly 5.3 million hectares (13 million acres) of irrigated farmland.
However, the supplemental environmental impact statement (EIS) has not alleviated those concerns, especially in Nebraska where the $US 7 billion pipeline would cross two primary units of the High Plains Aquifer—the Ogallala and the Sand Hills.
In a written statement, Nebraska’s Republican Senator Mike Johanns questioned the conclusions in the supplemental EIS.
“I was pleased that the State Department issued a supplemental EIS, which I had requested months ago,” Johanns wrote to Circle of Blue. “There is still much to review in the document, but the bottom line is that the State Department’s position doesn’t seem to have changed much. The State Department still thinks the best route goes through the Sand Hills, and I think that’s wrong.”
Though the supplement incorporates minor changes to the location of storage tanks and the intensity of pumping pressure, the new information “does not alter the conclusions reached in the draft EIS regarding the need for and the potential impacts of the proposed project,” according to the State Department’s supplemental EIS.
The State Department is the permitting agency because the pipeline crosses international boundaries. The department has already approved two pipelines from the tar sands to refineries in the U.S., both originating in Hardisty, Alberta. The 992-mile Alberta Clipper line ends at Superior, Wisconsin. The 1,600-kilometer (2,151-mile) Keystone line has terminals in Illinois and Oklahoma. The combined capacity is 1.4 million barrels per day, but the U.S. currently only imports 1.1 million barrels a day from the tar sands.
Potential for Pollution
The areas of greatest concern for water resources—pipeline spills and the location of the proposed route—seem to have been given superficial treatment, said Susan Casey-Lefkowitz, the international director for the Natural Resources Defense Council and a tar sands specialist.
“My feeling is that, rather than really going into detail in areas and fleshing them out, they spent a lot of time and pages explaining why they didn’t need to go more in-depth,” Casey-Lefkowitz told Circle of Blue. She continued, saying that the State Department “seems to take the stance that an accident or spill is unlikely, so we don’t need to worry.”
But when it comes to unlikely accidents linked to energy sector, there are two striking examples over the last year: the Deepwater Horizon blowout in the Gulf of Mexico and the Fukushima partial meltdown in Japan. And, lest it be overshadowed by those monumental bookends, last June there was a spill from a pipeline carrying tar sands oil in southwestern Michigan, where more than 800,000 gallons of oil flowed into a tributary of the Kalamazoo River from a pipeline owned by Enbridge, a Canadian company.
To understand the potential for a pipeline spill, the physical properties of tar sands oil are important.On April 22, the U.S. State Department released a supplemental environmental review... more
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Peak oil, biodiversity loss, peak water, pollution, illness, diseases and an industrial agricultural system broken due to reliance on fossil fuels that threaten our ability to maintain ours and other species. All reasons along with the intensification of the effects of CO2 and greenhouse gas forcings upon the Earth's natural cycles to work towards a clean energy economy. It matters not your politics, your beliefs or your religion, the need to switch to other energy sources due to overconsumption and waste is now essential. This documentary shows us how to get there. And we need to get there fast.Peak oil, biodiversity loss, peak water, pollution, illness, diseases and an... more
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For some months now, it has become increasingly likely that Saudi Arabian oil production is past its peak. The signs were already there for those reading between the lines in the days after the Libyan civil war broke out. At that time, Saudi Arabia stated that it had “already” increased production to 9 million barrels per day and could do no more. If Saudi production was maxed out at 9 million barrels per day then, down from the previous highs of 9.5 mbpd, this indicated that maximum production rates were falling. Incidentally, the Kingdom passed peak net exports in 2005, due to a combination of a production plateau and soaring domestic consumption.
The following article in Reuters, released on April 17, 2011, unless it is some kind of error, confirms without a doubt, that Saudi Arabia has entered a production decline. Indeed, it suggests a decline that may be precipitous. In case you missed this article, you may want to sit down before reading further.
*Saudi slashes oil output, says market oversupplied*
(Reuters) - "Saudi Arabia's oil minister said on Sunday the kingdom had slashed output by 800,000 barrels per day in March due to oversupply, sending the strongest signal yet that OPEC will not act to quell soaring prices."
Let’s get this straight. Libyan production of light sweet crude is down nearly a million barrels per day beginning in late February and the price of Brent crude has rocketed to $120 per barrel. Saudi oil ministers, however, say the market is “oversupplied.” As a response to the loss of 900,000 bpd of Libyan crude, it has made further cuts of 800,000 bpd for a total net loss of production of 1.7 million bpd. It might be noted that global consumers typically need an additional 200,000 bpd each month due to the growing global economy. Thus, the total net deficit for the month was 1.9 million bpd.
What can you say other than, “Wow!”
As a result of this massive supply shortfall, crude oil and product prices have been rising rapidly. Yet somehow we are to believe that these cuts were made because the market is “oversupplied” with product. The Energy Information Agency has reported petroleum and refined product stockpile draw-downs in the US over the past six weeks averaging some half a million barrels a day. Thus, domestic refiners are drawing down their stocks rather than pushing prices higher and just hoping (perhaps praying as well) that import prices moderate due to some miracle in Libya or a surge in production somewhere in the rest of the world.
Yikes, indeed!
To return to the Reuters’ article:
"Consumers have urged the exporters' group to pump more crude to put a cap on oil, which surged to more than $127 a barrel this month, its highest level in 2 1/2 years amid unrest in North Africa and the Middle East.
Oil Ministers from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates echoed Saudi Arabia's Ali al-Naimi's concerns about oversupply and said rocketing crude prices were out of the hands of OPEC, which next meets in June."
What are we to make of this statement? The market is oversupplied, and yet prices continue higher. “It is out of our hands.” Honestly, I think that is as clear a statement as you will get that every OPEC nation is pumping full-out. Let the cards now fall where they may.
"The market is overbalanced ... [overbalanced?] Our production in February was 9.125 million barrels per day (bpd), in March it was 8.292 million bpd. In April we don't know yet, probably a little higher than March [we hope]. The reason I gave you these numbers is to show you that the market is oversupplied," Naimi told reporters.
Let me translate for you. “Our output has fallen a million barrels per day in the midst of a supply disruption due to the Libyan war, and prices continue to rocket higher. Either we are ourselves past peak, or we are intentionally engineering a phenomenal price spike to generate astronomical revenue with which to keep the King’s subjects happy so they don’t revolt. To those in the West, please remember that we are, still, your allies.”
"Two Saudi-based industry sources told Reuters last week the kingdom had cut output due to poor demand, prompting selling by traders who saw it as a sign of a well-supplied market.
But crude rebounded later in the week on optimism about the state of the U.S. economy."
Again, is it just me, or does the increase in the price of Brent crude steadily from $90 to $125 signal some sort of “poor demand” in the market?......
Continue at:
http://www.financialsense.com/node/4946?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fso+%28Financial+Sense%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo&utm_term=FSOFor some months now, it has become increasingly likely that Saudi Arabian oil... more
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Is humanity forming en-masse? for lo, tyrants tremble, crowns grow dim,
The earth, restive, confronts a new era, perhaps a general divine war,
No one knows what will happen next, such portents fill the days and
nights;
Years prophetical! the space ahead as I walk, as I vainly try to
pierce it, is full of phantoms,
Unborn deeds, things soon to be, project their shapes around me,
This incredible rush and heat, this strange ecstatic fever of dreams
O years! – Years of the Modern- Walt Whitman
The great American poet Walt Whitman wrote these words in 1859. Whitman was trying to peer into a future of uncertainty. He was sure the future would be bleak. He had visions of phantoms. Maybe he saw the 600,000 souls who would lose their lives in the next six years. Whitman had captured the mood of a country entering the Fourth Turning. He didn’t know what would happen, but he felt the beat of war drums in the distance. Whitman did not have the benefit of historical perspective that we have today.
There have been three Fourth Turnings in American History. The American Revolution Fourth Turning ended in 1794 with the Crisis mood easing with the presidency of George Washington. Whitman didn’t realize that, 64 years after the previous Fourth Turning, the mood of the country was ripe for revolution and the sweeping away of the old order. When the stock market crashed in 1929, 64 years after the exhausting conclusion to the Civil War Fourth Turning, Americans didn’t realize the generational constellation was propelling them toward a new social order and a horrific world war. It is now 66 years since the conclusion of the Depression/WWII Fourth Turning. All indications are that the current Fourth Turning began in the 2007 – 2009, with the collapse of the housing market and the ensuing financial system implosion.
I find myself vainly trying to pierce the veil of events yet to be. The future is filled with haunting phantoms of unborn deeds which could lead to renewed glory, untold death and destruction, or the possibly the end of the great American experiment. Walt Whitman captured the change of mood in the country with his poem. History books are filled with dates and descriptions of events, battles, speeches and assassinations. What most people don’t understand is Fourth Turnings aren’t about events, but about the citizens’ reaction to the events.
The Boston Massacre did not start the American Revolution Fourth Turning, but the Boston Tea Party did. John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry did not start the Civil War Fourth Turning, but the election of Abraham Lincoln did. World War I did not start the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning, but the 1929 Stock Market Crash did. The 9/11 terrorist attack did not start latest Fourth Turning, but the Wall Street induced housing/financial system collapse did. In each instance, the generations were aligned in a manner that would lead to a sweeping away of the old civic order and a regeneracy with the institution of a new order. Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elder hood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.
One hundred and fifty years ago this week Fort Sumter was bombarded by upstart revolutionaries attempting to break away from an overbearing Federal government based in Washington D.C. Exactly four years later the butchery and death concluded dramatically with Robert E. Lee surrendering to Ulysses S. Grant at Appomattox and the assassination of Abraham Lincoln by John Wilkes Booth at Ford’s Theatre. For the next four years we will celebrate the 150th anniversary of various battles that marked the Civil War. What people will not consider are the similarities between that tumultuous period in our history and the period we are in today. Fourth Turnings are marked by different events but the same mood of upheaval, anger and fury.
As Strauss & Howe note in their book, the morphology of a Fourth Turning follows a predictable pattern:
Continue at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-years-modernIs humanity forming en-masse? for lo, tyrants tremble, crowns grow dim,
The earth,... more
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While the assumption that supply and demand forces set market prices in the modern financial world is extremely flawed, it becomes a relevant consideration in a capitalist system with limited capacity for financial speculation. This is exactly the world we will be living in over the next ten years or so. Many so-called economists ignore the fundamental reality of limited resources (such as peak oil), and therefore overestimate the ability of producers to generate supply or find substitutes to these critical resources. Many peak oil theorists, on the other hand, believe that we will eventually be living in a supply-constrained world for energy, food and other material resources, and therefore many people will be priced out of the market for them.
They often cite official projections of increasing energy demand in "emerging markets" such as India or China as support, and there is no doubt that such has been the dominant trend in recent years. Even in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2007-08, many of these countries have continued to increase their levels of domestic energy consumption [1], as their industrial sectors have grown and governments around the world have backstopped financial markets. If there is one thing we should be very skeptical of in this discussion, however, it is official projections that extrapolate past trends into the future......
Continue at:
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-29-2011-meltdown-devastating.htmlWhile the assumption that supply and demand forces set market prices in the modern... more
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Dear Mr.President,
Now comes a time when a true leader must arise. The problem that is at hand can be fixed and with little effort. The budget, EPA restrictions, GMO food ...all these disruptions of faith and hope. Well I have an answer to the problem... I am posting this via the internet to get feedback and maybe someone could elaborate on this plan and make it even better.
With the issue of peak oil, the solution is as simple as supply and demand...the current technology in the internal combustion engine is be far obsolete, I am sure if one would look through the patent office one would fine that there are several patents that make fossil fuels more efficient as well as other avenues of using other more sustainable fuels.
Lets combine technologies and create the best most efficient engine there is(ok maybe its not the most profitable thing to build something that lasts and is most efficient, however it satisfies the term that seems to resonate in congress these days "Long Term") One doesn't have to think very hard to come up with a solution to this issue yet congress has created a conundrum of the issue, as if we were too stupid to really see its an easy fix.
Peak oil = The point where we are using more than we can find create or procure. This is a profound statement "Peak Oil" is not a finite term. it can be influence by drilling and finding more(unlikely) or by using less(bingo!!!). Lets assume the number is one million barrels of oil is used daily (hypothetically speaking) and we can assume its broken down to 60% is for gasoline and diesel products,20% for plastics and 20% for other(chemicals and whatnot). If we concentrate on the largest number the amount of time that oil can support us is declining rapidly,However, change the number and the equation changes. lets assume we could cut that number in half. then the breakdown would look like this 30%+20%+20%and 30% to savings. This is impossible you say there is no way to cut it in half ...but there is!!!
1) start by taking all of the office workers and that means the workers that go to work to sit in front of a computer everyday and allow them to stay home and work. Most positions that require data input or output etc... this would mean less traffic less people commuting everyday.
2) bring education back to the home where the parent(who now works from home) could be not only caretaker of the education. (Computerized education)
3)restrict commercial vehicles from operating during peak traffic times.(slowing commuters and commercial traffic means unnecessary fuel consumption)
The savings from these actions would be enormous...less commuters, no school buses, no more gridlock on the highway burning up fuel, and even saving from engery costs to heat or cool the bricks and mortar types of schools or offices. Another beneficial by product is "family" on or more parents at home rearing the child from toddler to adult creating strong family values and morals ( children are less likely to be influence by drugs or gang activity)
These step would drastically reduce the feul consumption and relieve our dependence on oil with immediate results.
Some long term projects that would help out would be the High Speed Mag-Lev train system that was "De-railed" in 2000 by the former president this train system is safeer than flying and uses electricity for propulsion.
so to recap:
_reduce the commuter consumption
_reduce school bus consumption (also saves taxes for physical schools as they would no longer be useful or be converted to community centers. with operation costs cut dramatically)
_road traffic would diminish and road resurfacing needs would decline
_Mag-Lev implementation removes the burden of fuel from transportation and also provides a safer method of travel (you cannot crash a mag lev train into a skyscraper and it can be shut down remotely)
_finally the effects of bringing families back together in the home would create a better community and happier population(less crime).
The world used to look at the USA with envy and desire. Lately we are the object of disgrace and disgust. Lets set the stage for Act 2 ---"America in example"
May God grant you the patience peace and wisdom to direct us in the right direction and the grace and hope of the people to guide your decisions.
Sincerely, Earthwalker (The White Buffalo)Dear Mr.President,
Now comes a time when a true leader must arise. The problem that... more
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"It hardly made an impression on a US public preoccupied with comings and goings of Charlie Sheen. President Obama wants to pretend that American life-on-wheels will just keep rolling along. He hasn't so much as hinted to the US public that the time approaches when gasoline will have to be rationed either by high prices or odd-and-even licenses plates or some other method. Charming fellow that he is, his fecklessness in the face of disintegrating oil markets will go down in history as something like Nero's musical solo while Rome burned down."
Mr. Kunstler certainly has a way with words. Read the full article here:
http://kunstler.com/blog/2011/02/wake-me-shake-me.html"It hardly made an impression on a US public preoccupied with comings and goings... more
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"Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, is struggling to find more oil.
In its closely watched annual financial report released Tuesday, the company said that for every 100 barrels it has pumped out of the earth over the past decade, it has replaced only 95."
This news is not in the least bit surprising to those who follow oil (see Science/IEA: World oil crunch looming? Not if we can find six Saudi Arabias!).
Ironically, the news comes from the Wall Street Journal, whose editorial page remains an opponent of all strategies to end our addiction to oil before the brutal dislocations of peak oil force us to. Here’s more of the story:
"It’s a conundrum shared by most of the other large Western oil-producing companies, which are finding most accessible oil fields were tapped long ago, while promising new regions are proving technologically and politically challenging.
Exxon said in the report that it more than made up for the shortfall in oil by stocking up on natural gas, mostly through its acquisition of XTO Energy Inc. last year.
But the shift toward gas is troubling some investors, because gas sells for less than the equivalent amount of oil. Many observers feel the move toward gas—a trend across the oil industry—is dictated more by shrinking access to oil fields than by a strong desire to emphasize gas production.
“The good old days are gone and not to be repeated,” says Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer and Co. Bringing additional reserves from gas “is not going to give you the same punch” that oil would, he said….
Big oil companies are having trouble cashing in on the strong prices for crude oil. They have limited ability to drill in many oil-prone regions, such as Russia and part of the Middle East, due to politics. And even in promising Iraq, where many Western companies have won contracts, much infrastructure must be rebuilt. Exxon and others have also flocked to the oil-rich sands of Northern Alberta, Canada, but digging out the oil across vast swathes of forest comes at relatively high cost and generates concerns about the environmental impact."
Of course, “One place where Western oil companies have found open doors is in deep-water exploration” — something we can all look forward to in the wake of the BP oil disaster.
"Some companies also are seeking permission to drill exploratory wells above the Arctic Circle. The Arctic remains one of the few unexplored regions of the world and the region above Alaska and western Canada is believed to be oil rich. But deep-water projects take a long time to turn from a prospect that a geologist has identified into a producing asset.Chevron Corp.’s chief executive said last week that he expects to add new barrels of oil to its reserves from “several major deep-water projects” in future years. In 2010, he warned that Chevron added only one new barrel for every four it produced."
Drill, baby, Drill"Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, is... more
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The industrial doomsday scenario put forward by peak oil theorists isn't just for far flung voices on the Internet anymore.
Peak oil is not a problem of Earth's supplies: there's plenty of oil in a variety of forms. The difficulty is in how much energy it takes to recover and process it. And if it hasn't happened already, soon the demand for energy commodities will soar past existing production capacity and crash headlong into the brick wall of declining discoveries.
The economic effects of this could be devastating to the human populations within industrialized societies, to say the least.
That's not just the line from Noam Chomsky, Michael Rupert and Dmitry Orlov: the second largest company in the world, Shell International, a major player in the energy commodities industries, is saying it too.
In a recent "Signals & Signposts" report by Shell, forecasting energy scenarios through 2050, the oil giant predicted a growing volatility in the price of oil and a coming period of "extraordinary opportunity or misery."
As the demand for oil buts up against actual production and remaining reserves, the climbing price of oil will cause the gross domestic product of all nations to decline, they predict.
In another section, Shell calls these economic effects "Depression 2.0." Though that scenario is introduced as "unlikely," the rest of the report does not paint a rosy outlook.
more at link..The industrial doomsday scenario put forward by peak oil theorists isn't just for... more
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This is a convenient story to throw out there after some peak oil cables hit the news...
But 'new drilling technique' and 'out of reach oil' = hazardous, meaning we're running out of easily recoverable oil and this won't be worth the destruction or cost, just like tar sands and deepwater drilling, as the Gulf Coast will attest. There are no new discoveries, just really bad techniques at getting very hard to get oil. We've been past peak for awhile. How much destruction has to happen before we realize it is not the solution to our energy problems?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110209/ap_on_re_us/us_shale_oilThis is a convenient story to throw out there after some peak oil cables hit the... more
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