tagged w/ Budget
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In California, women and children are falling behind and the governor's proposed budget will only accelerate those trends. Susan Rose urges legislators to read the impact statement of the Women's Foundation and make bold revisions fast.In California, women and children are falling behind and the governor's proposed... more
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According to Wikipedia, “Psychological projection or projection bias is a psychological defense mechanism where a person subconsciously denies his or her own attributes, thoughts, and emotions, which are then ascribed to the outside world, usually to other people.” It is also a favorite tactic of the Republican Party. An obvious example is the swift boating of John Kerry, in which the campaign of a Republican draft dodger impugned the courage of a decorated war hero. Yesterday Paul Ryan (R-Fitzwalkerstan) accused Barack Obama of supporting austerity, while claiming that the Ryan Plan avoids austerity.According to Wikipedia, “Psychological projection or projection bias is a... more
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The repercussions from the contraindications in last year’s NDAA bill still effect progressive thought and choices, so it has to be a concern that a New NDAA bill just passed the Republican-dominated House, and it has problems of it’s own. Republicans have used it as a vehicle to level more of their supply-side, pseudo-Christian hate at the LGBT community. Republicans have reneged on their spending agreement. And worst of all, Republicans have reaffirmed the indefinite detention language just ruled unconstitutional...The repercussions from the contraindications in last year’s NDAA bill still... more
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Because Republican’s have refused to compromise on revenue enhancements, $1.2 trillion in across-the-board cuts are scheduled to take effect in January, weighted heavily toward cuts in defense spending. That’s an anathema to Republicans, because defense contractors, who want to keep producing outdated weapons systems that were appropriate for the cold war, but are not needed today, are a key Republican constituency. So Ryan and his minions want YOU to BEND OVER instead.Because Republican’s have refused to compromise on revenue enhancements, $1.2... more
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Economists Carmen Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff (from here on out referred to as R3) have a new study out looking at the economic impact of high debt levels:
" – We identify 26 episodes of public debt overhang–where debt to GDP ratios exceed 90% of GDP–since 1800. We find that in 23 of these 26 episodes, individual countries experienced lower growth than the average of other years. Across all 26 episodes, growth is lower by an average of 1.2%.
– If this effect sounds modest, consider that the average duration of debt overhang episodes was 23 years. In 11 of the 26 high debt overhang episodes, real interest rates were the same or lower than in other periods.
– Obviously, it is possible that new developments in technology and globalization will provide such a remarkable reservoir of growth that today’s record debt burdens will eventually prove quite manageable. On the other hand, the fact many countries are facing “quadruple debt overhang problems”—public, private, external, and pension–suggests the problem could in fact be worse than in the past, a question we do not tackle here.
– Nor have we paid attention here to the likely possibility of significant “hidden debts”, especially public sector, which Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) find to be a significant factor in many debt crises, and as documented in detail in the Reinhart (2010) chartbook. Another line of reasoning for dismissing concerns about public debt and growth is the view the causality mostly runs from growth to debt.
– Our analysis, based on these cases and the 23 others we identify, suggests that the long term risks of high debt are real."
This paper represents a deeper dive into the issue than previous research by Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, though their general conclusion — high debt lowers growth — is the same. And the chart at the top of the post shows the cumulative impact of years of slower growth. There’s a big different between having a $21 trillion economy in 2035 and a $28 trillion one. Anyone have use for an extra $7 trillion?
Two other key points that R3 make:
1. Don’t wait for markets to freak out before cutting debt levels. “Contrary to popular perception, we find that in 11 of the 26 debt overhang cases, real interest rates were either lower or about the same as during the lower debt/GDP years. Those waiting for financial markets to send the warning signal through higher interest rates that government policy will be detrimental to economic performance may be waiting a long time.”
This observation fits well with one now being made by Eurasia Group. As the consulting firms sees things, the U.S. will continue to be able to finance its deficit and debt cheaply in part because of continued global safe haven status. “But while this is a benefit, it also ‘curses’ the U.S. into a period of fiscal complacency.” As long as rates are low, there will be little pressure for a “grand bargain” to cut debt, according to the firm. But as R3 show, that path may doom America to years or decades of subpar economic growth.
2. We need to cut, but not tomorrow. R3 make a clear point of saying that their research “should not be interpreted as a manifesto for rapid public debt deleveraging in an environment of extremely weak growth and high unemployment. However, our read of the evidence certainly casts doubt on the view that soaring government debt is a non-issue simply because markets are presently happy to absorb it.”
Good thing few voices in the U.S. are calling for a balanced budget in 2013. With entitlement reform, pro-growth tax reform, and modest trimming of current government spending over the next decade, we can get America on the right trajectory to avoid R3′s low-growth, high-debt scenario.
But will we? The Obama administration doesn’t seem to agree with R3. It only wants to stabilize the debt at current levels for the next decade with no plans to do much of anything beyond that. Indeed, Team Obama does just what R3 warn against: They point to the current low level of interest rates as a sign that no urgent action is necessary.
http://blog.american.com/2012/05/new-study-high-u-s-debt-levels-could-mean-a-quarter-century-of-weak-growth/Economists Carmen Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff (from here on out... more
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Uncle Sam, in a desperate attempt to fix its $16 trillion-plus deficit, is leering over Americans’ retirement nest egg as its new bailout fund.
Capitol Hill politicians are assessing tax changes that could let the Internal Revenue Service lay claim to a portion of the $18 trillion sitting in 401(k) accounts and other tax breaks used by middle-class workers, including cutting the mortgage tax deduction.
A commission looking for ways to close the deficit, and, noting the extent of 401(k) tax breaks, recommends an examination of the system as one way to prevent government bankruptcy.Besides 401(k)s, other possibilities include the mortgage-interest deduction on second homes, as well as benefits from employer-provided health insurance, which are untaxed now.
Under current 401(k) rules, total employee/employer contributions can’t exceed $50,000. In the proposed rule change, employer/employee contributions would be limited to 20 percent of the employee’s compensation, with a maximum of $20,000, the so-called 20/20 proposal.
Another proposal being discussed in Congress says all tax deductions on 401(k)s and IRAs to be replaced with an 18 percent credit. The credit, according to a proposal that has been endorsed by economist William Gale, would be placed directly in a person’s retirement account.
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Why cut the deficit by shutting down the imperialism of The Powers That Be when you can just steal more money from working Americans?
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/2074/650/Gold_Confiscation_Internal_Revenue_Service_Lays_Claim_To_18_Trillion_Sitting_In_401_k_Accounts.htmlUncle Sam, in a desperate attempt to fix its $16 trillion-plus deficit, is leering... more
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KB723
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1 month ago
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If House Republicans get their way in the federal budget they deemed and passed (remember demon pass?), all but the very rich will have to grab their ankles. The purpose of government is to serve the common good, but for Republicans, only the 1% get served. What happens to the rest of is is obvious.If House Republicans get their way in the federal budget they deemed and passed... more
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WATCH: Paul Ryan’s “new” Medicare plan is just lipstick on a pig, still threatens to end traditional Medicare and still forces seniors to pay substantially more out-of-pocket for their care, while giving away $3 trillion to the richest Americans and corporations like oil and gas companies. It didn’t go over well the first time and we won’t let them get away with it this time...
http://veracitystew.com/?p=33002WATCH: Paul Ryan’s “new” Medicare plan is just lipstick on a pig,... more
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The latest episode of the Barkhamsted Republican Town Committee’s nine year political interview program features former CT Congressman Christopher Shays now seeking the Republican Party nomination for the U.S.Senate seat being vacated by retiring Joe Lieberman. Seven year host Juliana Simone co-hosts this edition with BRTC officer John Doyle who provides his veteran expertise on politics.The latest episode of the Barkhamsted Republican Town Committee’s nine year... more
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There’s nothing good about the House Republican-Mitt Romney budget plan. But perhaps its worst feature is the way it targets the many millions of working and unemployed poor who rely on the federal-state Medicaid program for medical care.
It does this by proposing huge reductions in Medicaid spending, and, most significantly, putting the program in the hands of the states, whose governments, strapped for money, are increasingly run by conservatives.
The plan was conceived by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and is backed by Romney, who is favored to win the Republican presidential nomination after his victory Tuesday in the Illinois primary. If he defeats President Obama and the Republicans win the Senate along with holding the House, consider it a blueprint for 2013.
The Ryan-Romney plan would cut taxes to the affluent and corporations, increase arms spending and cut expenditures for almost everything else, including environmental programs, child care, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, aid to college students and funding for transportation, which includes air traffic control. Medicare would be cut, the health care reform law repealed. If you think the health reform law is too kind to insurance companies, you’ll be amazed at the way Ryan-Romney lets big insurance really run things.
“In essence, this budget is Robin Hood in reverse—on steroids,” said Robert Greenstein, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “It would likely produce the largest redistribution of income from the bottom to the top in modern U.S. history and likely increase poverty and inequality more than any other budget in recent times and possibly in the nation’s history.
“Chairman Ryan says these changes in domestic programs are necessary due to the nation’s severe fiscal straits. The nation’s fiscal straits, however, surely do not justify massive new tax cuts for its wealthiest people alongside budget cuts that would cast tens of millions of less fortunate Americans into the ranks of the uninsured, take food from poor children, make it harder for low-income students to get a college degree and squeeze funding for research, education and infrastructure. Under Chairman Ryan’s budget, our nation would be a very different one—less fair and less generous, with an even wider gap between the very well-off and everyone else … and our society would be a coarser one.”
The center’s website has more details. I’ll concentrate on the Medicaid portion of the plan.
The budget plan is one result of the growing influence of conservative statehouses, a quiet revolution taking place in politics and government. Because it is occurring in statehouses, too often poorly covered because of the decline of the media business, the nation has no way of knowing what’s happening.
When enacted in 1965, Medicaid, a centerpiece of the Great Society, was a safety net financed by federal and state funds. Although administered by the states, each state must meet federal standards for eligibility and benefits. Almost 49 million people receive benefits.
The Republican plan would turn Medicaid over to the states by giving them money in the form of “block grants,” large amounts of money that can be used with little restriction. Federal Medicaid expenditures would be reduced by $810 billion—45 percent, The New York Times estimates—over 10 years. So the states would be getting much less to care for their poor.
Republican doctrine says the states are so creative they can figure out how to do more with less. But look what’s happened in recent years.
I noted in Truthdig a while back how the Republicans in 2010 won a majority of the nation’s state legislative seats. It was the largest majority for the Republican Party since 1928. The Republicans now control a majority of legislatures in the South, plus more governorships, including Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa. These victories came with the help of super PAC donations. Matt Sledge in The Huffington Post cited a study by the National Institute on Money in State Politics showing super PACs gave $36.8 million to state candidates between 2008 and 2010. Most of the donors were conservative.
Elections have results, as the cliché goes. The shift in the composition of the legislatures has resulted in a wave of right-wing restrictive legislation proposed or passed on abortion, contraception, voting and immigration.
As Amanda Marcotte reported on AlterNet, abortion restrictions have been approved or proposed in Idaho, Iowa, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Kansas, Virginia and Texas. There are others floating around statehouses.
Republicans have pushed through Voter ID laws in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alabama, Kansas, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. Anti-immigrant laws are popping up around the country in places such as Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico.
Putting Medicaid in the hands of such state governments will mean that care for the poor will be subject to the whims, prejudices, ideological leanings and budget cutting tendencies of state legislators.
These legislators are pushovers for campaign contributors. What’s a pittance for a super PAC can buy a state senator, beginning with financing a campaign and continuing support into the statehouse. These campaigns to take over state governments will grow as business sees the possibilities.
Think about what’s happening with abortion, contraception, voters’ rights and immigration. Do you want these people in charge of medical care for the poor?
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_quiet_revolution_in_americas_statehouses_20120322/There’s nothing good about the House Republican-Mitt Romney budget plan. But... more
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The Republicans have a new budget plan, in which they renege on the spending levels to which they agreed last year, when they blackmailed America with government shutdown. So much for good faith negotiations. Ryan’s new abomination is so draconian that it personifies class warfare: a Republican War on the Poor.The Republicans have a new budget plan, in which they renege on the spending levels to... more
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I haven't read through his budget yet, but it sounds like it'll be a bigger disaster than the last one. I wonder what Mitt's position will be on this? I'll get my answer as soon as the polls come out on this.I haven't read through his budget yet, but it sounds like it'll be a bigger... more
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With committee rules stating each of the five candidates would be given two minutes to respond to each question submitted from audience members on slips of paper before the debate began, the following articles and video clips are presented in the order of the questions asked by the Newtown Chair. Answers are written in the order candidates were asked to speak (For word for word answers on every question by each candidate please refer to the videos.With committee rules stating each of the five candidates would be given two minutes to... more
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Seeking applause from a right-wing audience in Michigan, Mitt Romney vowed on Saturday: “I will cut spending, I will cap spending and I will finally balance the budget,” saying that he will end federal funding for all the usual Republican budgetary scapegoats—the Public Broadcasting System, the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities. He has said much the same thing many times in recent months, hoping to woo the tea party extremists who keep rejecting his candidacy.Seeking applause from a right-wing audience in Michigan, Mitt Romney vowed on... more
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Arab civilization, which is part of human heritage, has faced through its long history great challenges aimed at breaking its will and subjecting it to colonial domination, but it has always rose through its own creative abilities to exercise its role in building human civilization. The Syrian Arab Republic is proud of its Arab identity and the fact that its people are an integral part of the Arab nation. The Syrian Arab Republic embodies this belonging in its national and pan-Arab project and the work to support Arab cooperation in order to promote integration and achieve the unity of the Arab nation. The Syrian Arab Republic considers international peace and security a key objective and a strategic choice, and it works on achieving both of them under the International Law and the values of right and justice. http://www.makeahistory.com/index.php/recent-news/43064-draft-constitution-for-the-syrian-arab-republic-damascus-referendum-day-photo-essayArab civilization, which is part of human heritage, has faced through its long history... more
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worrg
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3 months ago
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"President Obama described his fiscal year 2013 budget – the most expensive in United States history – as “a blueprint for an economy that is built to last.”
But even his own Treasury Secretary does not agree with that assessment.
For the second year in row, Timothy Geithner admitted before the Senate Budget Committee that President Obama’s budget takes no action to meaningfully reform entitlement programs, putting us on an “unsustainable” fiscal course.
“Even if Congress were to enact this budget,” Geithner said, “we would still be left with–in the outer decades as millions of Americans retire–what are still unsustainable commitments in Medicare and Medicaid.
In fact, Geithner said the same thing about the president’s budget last year.""President Obama described his fiscal year 2013 budget – the most expensive... more
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I won’t have a real handle on the Obama budget for several days at best, but what I do understand about it at this point impresses me. I am pleased that it will increase revenue, by rising the rate on and closing loopholes that benefit the 1%. I have no problem with his intent to reduce the nominal corporate tax rate, because the loopholes it closes and corporate giveaways it ends actually raise the effective tax rate for the large corporations, that have evaded paying their fair share, while lowering them for small companies. I like the investments in infrastructure, job training, and technology development. I especially like that the cuts to Medicare spending come exclusively through reducing Drug company profits.I won’t have a real handle on the Obama budget for several days at best, but... more
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